Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps retains capabilities after Khamenei assassination — expert
Nikolay Gaponenko believes that Iran's retaliatory actions demonstrate its readiness and ability to resist even after its decision-making center was destroyed
MOSCOW, March 3. /TASS/. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Operation True Promise 4 against Israel and American bases in the Middle East demonstrates that elite units of the Iranian army have retained their command structure and the capacity to launch massive strikes after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Nikolay Gaponenko, PhD in Economics and Associate Professor at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), noted in an op-ed for the TASS website.
Iran is conducting Operation True Promise 4 in response to aggression from the United States and Israel.
"Operation True Promise 4, with its massive launch of ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles against Israeli territory and American bases, confirms that the IRGC command has retained its vertical power structure and the technical capacity to carry out massive strikes," Gaponenko noted.
On February 28, the US and Israel launched a military operation against Iran. The strikes targeted major Iranian cities, including Tehran. The White House justified the attack by citing missile and nuclear threats it declared were emanating from Tehran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a large-scale retaliatory operation, striking targets inside Israel. US assets in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia also came under attack. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several other key figures of the Islamic republic’s leadership were killed.
The expert believes that Iran's retaliatory actions demonstrate its readiness and ability to resist even after its decision-making center was destroyed. "The death of the top leadership, including the Rahbar, is an absolute shock," the expert noted. "However, as the first hours of the conflict have shown, the Iranian system, based on a dual command structure and the IRGC high institutionalization, retains a high degree of resilience."
The IRGC functions not simply as a military, but as an ideological organization, which minimizes the effect of "decapitation," he believes. "The key question here is whether the vertical decision-making chain will be maintained in the face of force majeure. So far, according to available data, controllability persists," the expert believes.
According to Gaponenko, for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the escalation of the conflict is a tool for internal consolidation, allowing him to mitigate domestic political crises and criminal prosecutions. "For Iran, retaliatory strikes are an attempt to save face and demonstrate its capability to resist to its allies, including Russia and China, as well as proxies in Lebanon and Syria," the expert noted, adding that Hezbollah's entry into the active phase of fighting creates the threat of opening a second front.