MOSCOW, March 3. /TASS/. The military conflict in the Middle East involving Iran, Israel, and the United States will most likely enter a phase of managed escalation, in which Russia and China will maintain an active diplomatic stance; Iran will demonstrate internal unity and the ability to wage a protracted defensive war, and the United States and Israel, after attempts to weaken the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), will have to moderate the situation, Nikolay Gaponenko, PhD in Economics and Associate Professor at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), noted in an op-ed for the TASS website.

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran, striking major cities, including Tehran. The White House justified the attack by citing alleged missile and nuclear threats coming from Tehran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retaliated with a sweeping attack on Israel. US targets in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia were also hit. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and some other key Iranian figures were killed. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a large-scale retaliatory operation.

"Two possible scenarios are emerging. The first, most likely, is a managed escalation. In this scenario, Russia and China will maintain an active diplomatic stance, while Iran will demonstrate internal unity and the ability to conduct protracted defensive actions," the expert believes.

In this case, in the view of Gaponenko, the US and Israel, faced with the prospect of becoming bogged down in a protracted conflict without a quick victory and with mounting international costs, could moderate after achieving their tactical goals of weakening the IRGC's military potential.

The second crisis scenario is an uncontrolled escalation. "If, under the pressure of strikes, irreversible processes of government disorganization and/or separatist uprisings begin in Iran, external players will lose their diplomatic foothold, which will lead to a humanitarian catastrophe and regional destabilization with unpredictable consequences for global energy security," the expert noted.

The current phase of the conflict, according to Gaponenko, is "a stress test for the Iranian state model and for the ability of multipolar mechanisms to restrain unilateral military actions, and the outcome of this test will determine the contours of a new Middle Eastern order." The situation is developing according to a hardline scenario with a high risk of protracted conflict. "In the next 72 hours, the coalition’s air campaign is most likely to continue, focusing on suppressing the remaining IRGC command centers and the Basij forces’ infrastructure to ‘prepare the ground’ for internal unrest," Gaponenko noted, adding that the depth of the crisis will be determined at the intersection of these two vectors.