MOSCOW, March 2. /TASS/. The escalation in the Middle East could lead to the emergence of so-called "black swan" events — rare and hard-to-predict events capable of radically changing the situation, associate professor at the Department of Applied Economics of the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the Higher School of Economics Anna Fedyunina told TASS.

According to her, in addition to the risks of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — a strategic route through which about 20% of global energy exports pass — there are other catalyst scenarios. These include the direct involvement of new states in the conflict, as well as attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in Persian Gulf countries. Such events could deal a blow to global economic growth and increase inflationary pressure.

"The Strait of Hormuz is a key hub through which not only over 20% of oil and LNG exports pass, but also a significant share of trade flows from countries in the region — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Qatar. At the same time, for Iran itself, closing the strait would be an opportunity for an asymmetric response not only to the US, but also to its partners, including in the EU and East Asia. However, the strait is also an important export channel for Iran itself, so a prolonged closure would deepen the crisis inside the country," the expert explained.

At the same time, a prolonged restriction of shipping in the strait is unlikely, though such a scenario cannot be completely ruled out, since strikes on Iran may be perceived as an existential threat to the country, Fedyunina believes.

"I estimate the probability of such an outcome at 10-20%, with a strongly negative impact on global trade and economic growth — global GDP could lose up to one percentage point in annual terms. This scenario could aggravate the conflict and lead to the active involvement of additional anti-Iranian forces, for example from the EU. So, Iran likely understands that this is an impossible scenario," the expert emphasized.

In her view, a scenario involving episodic attacks on vessels appears more likely. In that case, the main impact would be linked to rising logistics costs — primarily due to higher insurance premiums and the need to reroute supplies where possible.

"This, in turn, would exert pro-inflationary pressure on the global economy and cause some slowdown in global GDP growth, though not as significant as in the first scenario — several tenths of a percentage point. Overall, it is still too early to make more or less substantiated forecasts — the situation may develop in completely different scenarios, and there may be several ‘black swans’ that fundamentally change the situation," Fedyunina noted. "For example, this could include the involvement in and support for Iran by other states or individual groups, or attacks on other oil and gas infrastructure in Persian Gulf countries, including pipelines," she added.