BEIJING, February 6. /TASS/. The abandonment of obligations under the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) threatens to ignite a perilous chain reaction in global governance, warns Qian Feng, an expert at the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University.

"The collapse of the arms control system will not only destabilize the nuclear domain but could also spill over into emerging strategic arenas such as outer space and cyberspace," he cautions. "This could lead to increasingly unchecked competition among major powers, significantly aggravating global security challenges and plunging the world into an era characterized by 'limitations without treaties’."

Qian emphasizes that the treaty has long served as a "symbol of ongoing dialogue between the United States and Russia on strategic stability." However, he notes that recent interactions have been marred by "politicization" and "devastation." "On one hand, institutional dialogue has become paralyzed," he explains. "Meanwhile, Russia has taken steps toward meeting its commitments, but the United States remains largely silent. This reflects a persistent low level of bilateral strategic trust, exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts such as the Ukrainian crisis and NATO's eastward expansion."

The expert also highlights internal disagreements within US political circles regarding the structure of nuclear non-proliferation negotiations. The impasse over extending New START is partly driven by the Trump administration’s push to establish a new multilateral arms control framework. "For the first time since 1972," he notes, "the two largest nuclear powers are operating without a legally binding arms control treaty."

This development, Qian warns, could precipitate a host of serious international issues. He expresses concern that abandoning New START may accelerate the erosion of the rules-based international order established after World War II.

Potential consequences of New START’s demise

"First, global strategic stability is facing a systemic collapse," Qian warns. "Russia and the United States together hold approximately 87% of the world's nuclear arsenal." With the treaty's expiration, both nations will no longer be bound by limits on their deployed strategic nuclear warheads (1,550) or delivery vehicles (700). "This theoretically opens the door for an unchecked expansion of their arsenals, which could trigger an arms race and encourage other countries, driven by security concerns, to bolster their own nuclear capabilities," he explains. "Such a shift could transform global nuclear policy from one of deterrence to one of pursuit of superiority, significantly increasing the risk of nuclear conflict."

Qian also warns that the end of New START threatens the legitimacy of the broader nuclear non-proliferation regime, particularly the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). "As nuclear-weapon states, Russia and the US bear a primary responsibility for disarmament under the NPT," he states. "Abandoning New START sends a negative signal to the international community: instead of honoring their disarmament commitments, nuclear powers are retreating from their last legal obligations."

This erosion of trust could embolden non-nuclear states to pursue their own nuclear arsenals under the guise of self-defense, undermining the entire non-proliferation framework.

"Furthermore," Qian adds, "the mechanisms that prevent strategic miscalculations and facilitate crisis management - such as verification protocols - will be severely weakened. Without on-site inspections and data exchanges, assessments of each other's nuclear capabilities will rely solely on intelligence and worst-case scenario modeling." In such a scenario, rapid crises could escalate unpredictably, as the inability to accurately verify nuclear deployments would "narrow decision-making windows and heighten the risk of catastrophic preemptive strikes driven by miscalculation."

Since New START expired on February 5, Moscow has indicated that, under current circumstances, it considers the treaty no longer binding, meaning the parties can take next steps without restraint. The Russian Foreign Ministry has emphasized that Russia intends to act "responsibly and deliberately," taking into account US military policies and the broader geopolitical context.