WASHINGTON, February 4. /TASS/. True strategic stability requires peace in Ukraine, but NATO views it as a threat, US anti-war and anti-nuclear movement representative Greg Mello, who heads the Los Alamos Study Group in the state of New Mexico, has told TASS.

"Real nuclear stability — which is more than New START ever offered — requires real peace in Ukraine first and foremost, not just a ceasefire. This peace will require good-faith investments of various kinds, which can only be based on real guarantees, not just handshakes," the expert said, commenting on the looming expiry of the New START treaty limitations due on February 5.

"The US Congress is unfortunately still infected with a bad case of Russophobia, which limits Trump's freedom of action in this regard. For its part, NATO is threatened by peace in Ukraine, but will have to follow Trump's lead — if he leads," he continued.

Breakthrough possible

According to his estimates, "the danger of nuclear war <…> remains much higher than it needs to be."

"Yet I believe that a breakthrough is possible, and this lost opportunity — assuming it is lost — should galvanize all of us to work harder in the meantime," the expert said. "While failure to extend the New START limits is definitely not good, it is not the end of the world either. There will be new opportunities and we need to prepare for them."

When contacted by TASS with the question of whether the US side has anything new to announce on New START, the White House and the US Department of State left the request unanswered.

About the treaty

The Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (the New START Treaty) was signed in 2010 and entered into force on February 5, 2011. The document stipulates that seven years after its entry into effect each party should have no more than a total of 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) and strategic bombers, as well as no more than 1,550 warheads on deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs and strategic bombers, and a total of 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers and strategic bombers. The Treaty was signed for a term of ten years, until February 5, 2021, with a possibility of a further extension upon the parties’ mutual consent.

In February 2021, Moscow and Washington extended the treaty, described by the Russian authorities as the golden standard in the sphere of disarmament, for the maximal possible five years.

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on February 21, 2023 that Russia was suspending its participation in New START but was not withdrawing from it. The president stressed that before returning to the discussion of the extension of the treaty, the Russian side wanted to understand how New START will take into account not only the United States’ arsenals but also stockpiles of other NATO nuclear powers, namely the United Kingdom and France.

On September 22, 2025, Putin stated at a meeting with the Russian Security Council that Russia was prepared to continue adhering to the treaty's quantitative restrictions for another year after the New START expires in February. However, he emphasized that this measure is only viable if Washington follows suit.