MOSCOW, January 15. /TASS/. The most likely consequence of the current situation around Iran will primarily be large-scale refugee flows from the country, leading to chaos, regardless of the type of migration, former Austrian Foreign Minister and head of the G.O.R.K.I. center at St. Petersburg State University Karin Kneissl told TASS in an interview.

Responding to a question about whether destabilization in Iran could lead to a loss of stability in other countries in the region, she drew attention to the characteristic feature of any Middle Eastern country being "instability and fragility." "The entire region is, to a certain extent, extremely vulnerable," Kneissl noted.

"And therefore, whatever happens in Iran itself, which we do not know, chaos within the country would, in my opinion, first and foremost lead to large-scale refugee flows," she remarked. "If genuine anarchy or a major military conflict begins, as we saw in June of last year, people will naturally leave Tehran. Whether these people become internally displaced or cross borders, time will tell. But chaos is, of course, entirely possible."

At the same time, Kneissl pointed out that Iraq and Afghanistan can also hardly be called stable. "Yes, fortunately, it is not the same Iraq as it was 20 years ago: between 2006 and 2008, the situation there was extremely difficult. But if we take Iran’s neighbors, for example Afghanistan, can it be called stable? That is a very debatable question," she noted.

According to Kneissl, Iran itself suffers from instability in neighboring countries. "Take, for example, the issue of Afghan drug trafficking. The problem of drugs and drug smuggling in Iran is colossal," she specified. "Moreover, Iran was certainly affected by events in Iraq after the US invasion in 2003. Without Iran’s involvement, the IS (Islamic State, banned in Russia) in Iraq would not have been defeated; it was the Iranians who played a very significant role there. And in 2020, the US killed Iranian General [Qasem] Soleimani in Baghdad."

The unrest in Iran began on December 29, triggered by protests over the sharp decline of the Iranian rial, which quickly spread across major cities. Authorities reported the deaths of approximately 40 law enforcement officers. Since January 8, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that armed terrorists had infiltrated the demonstrators. Tehran has accused Israel and the United States of orchestrating the unrest.