HARARE, November 28. /TASS/. The ousted President of Guinea-Bissau, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, who was removed from power by the military and subsequently left the country, could potentially return and run in the upcoming presidential elections, an expert has stated.

Maurice Toupane, a West Africa specialist at the Dakar office of the Institute for Strategic Studies in Africa (Senegal), suggested that a tacit agreement between Embalo and the military, which staged the coup to prevent the opposition from assuming power, is a plausible scenario.

"Several theories regarding the coup's motives are currently in circulation," Maurice Toupane told the RFI radio news outlet. "One credible explanation points to manipulation by the ruling regime in Bissau to block Embalo's opponents from coming to power. This has precedent in Guinea-Bissau's history. For instance, in 2012, the army intervened prior to the second round of presidential elections to prevent Carlos Gomes Junior, the leader of the then-ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC), from securing victory. Presently, under an arrangement with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the military released Embalo from custody and escorted him to Senegal. It is conceivable that, following the declared transitional period, he will be a candidate in the next presidential elections."

The expert underscored that the recent elections in Guinea-Bissau were conducted under tense conditions. The military launched its coup immediately before the official results were to be announced, at a time when vote counting indicated a likely victory for Embalo's rival, Fernando Dias. This development conflicted with the electoral strategy of the authorities, who had sought to pave the way for Embalo's re-election by compelling the withdrawal of PAIGC Chairman Domingos Simoes Pereira's candidacy. Unexpected support for Dias from within the PAIGC appeared to disrupt the regime's plans and jeopardize Embalo's electoral success.

On November 26, the military seized power in Guinea-Bissau through a coup, ousting President Embalo. The armed forces announced the suspension of all state institutions, transferring complete authority to the High Military Command for the Restoration of Order. Major General Horta Inta-a was appointed its head and was sworn in as the interim President of Guinea-Bissau on November 27.

The military also ordered a halt to the vote counting in the recent presidential and parliamentary elections. The electoral commission had been scheduled to announce the final results on November 28. Embalo had participated in the presidential election, seeking a second term in office.