US lacks leverage to mediate settlement of conflict between Russia, Ukraine — expert

World August 01, 17:51

Sun Qi said that Donald Trump's decision, when he began threatening sanctions against Russia and its trading partners, is irrational and demonstrates his irritation after the attempts to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict flopped

BEIJING, August 1. /TASS/. Washington's threats of secondary sanctions against Moscow's trading partners point to the failure of US President Donald Trump's attempts to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the lack of any real leverage to mediate a deal, Sun Qi, the Executive Director of the Center for Russia and Central Asia Studies at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said.

"I believe that Trump's decision, when he began threatening sanctions against Russia and its trading partners, is irrational and demonstrates his irritation after the attempts to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict flopped," the expert told TASS.

Amid the Russian army's continued advance at the front, Sun Qi said, Trump made futile attempts to end the conflict diplomatically.

"As Trump himself hinted, although [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is showing good will, he is not ready to make significant concessions," the expert said. "After talks with European leaders, Trump's shifted his position again, indicating possible pressure from the allies. Trump has chosen a dual strategy: on the one hand, resuming military assistance to Ukraine to increase pressure on the battlefield, on the other, considering tougher economic sanctions against Russia, which he sees as an effective negotiating lever," the expert believes.

According to Sun Qi, this logic of "peace through strength" is fully consistent with Trump's negotiating style. "At the same time, a strategic reversal is taking place: if Trump initially softened his position on Russia, but did not make progress, now he is moving to a tougher line," he said.

"Timing is also important. The announcement of the resumption of aid and sanctions came immediately after talks between [Russian Foreign Minister Sergey] Lavrov and [US Secretary of State Marco] Rubio, but before Trump's ‘important statement,’ which indicates a carefully planned strategic signal to Russia: changes in the US position are not just words. But, ultimately, this is a demonstration that the United States has no real leverage to mediate in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict."

On July 14, Trump promised 100% import duties on Russia and its trading partners, if Moscow and Washington did not reach an agreement on a settlement in Ukraine within 50 days. Later, Trump reduced the 50-day deadline to 10 days.

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