MOSCOW, May 26. /TASS/. The Israeli government is contemplating a serious military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, reportedly without the approval of the United States, according to Andrey Zeltyn, a senior lecturer at the School of Asian Studies within the Department of World Economy and World Politics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. Zeltyn shared these insights in a commentary for TASS.

He highlighted Israel’s increasingly confrontational stance amid ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran over the nuclear program. "Israel, which staunchly opposes the nuclear deal with Iran in principle, appears to be escalating tensions. Western media citing US intelligence sources indicate that Tel Aviv is contemplating a preventive strike on Iranian nuclear sites. Military drills, ammunition transfers, and outspoken statements by senior officials underscore the seriousness of these intentions," Zeltyn explained.

Potential break from US support

The analyst noted that Israel, viewing a nuclear Iran as an existential threat, may act unilaterally - and even contrary to Washington’s wishes. "Recently, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has exhibited significant disagreements with President Donald Trump. Notably, Netanyahu’s attempt in April to secure US approval for a strike on Iran was unsuccessful. It seems plausible that Israel is now seriously considering acting on its own initiative. The leaking of US intelligence about an imminent strike appears to serve as a warning, possibly aimed at dissuading Israel from undermining ongoing negotiations," Zeltyn observed.

Consequences of Israel’s strike

Zeltyn warned that Iran would respond forcefully to any aggression. "Possible retaliatory measures could include attacks on US military assets in the region or mobilization of allied groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen," he said. "Such actions could quickly escalate into a broader Middle Eastern conflict. While the US appears intent on avoiding escalation, the unpredictable nature of Israel’s current government makes the situation highly volatile."

Risks and diplomatic window

The expert emphasized that an Israeli strike would have far-reaching global repercussions. "Rising oil prices, disruptions to shipping routes, and increased migration flows are among the likely consequences," Zeltyn warned. "Moreover, failure to pursue diplomatic solutions may entail the complete collapse of the nuclear non-proliferation regime - not just in the Middle East, but globally."

He cautioned that the diplomatic window is narrowing. "While it has not yet closed, time is running out. To prevent catastrophe, all parties - namely the US, Iran, and Israel - must move beyond the usual diplomatic scripts. Otherwise, history shows that the cost of failed negotiations can be devastating," the analyst concluded.

Recent developments in Iran-US talks

On May 23, Iran and the US held their fifth round of negotiations in Rome. Oman’s foreign minister, mediating between the two sides, reported "some progress, though not final." Iranian officials expressed hope that further talks would yield positive results within one or two more meetings.

Since negotiations resumed on April 12, disagreements over uranium enrichment have posed significant obstacles. The US insists Iran must completely cease uranium enrichment at its nuclear facilities, while Tehran maintains its program is peaceful. Following the US withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Iran resumed and accelerated uranium enrichment, reaching levels close to those needed for nuclear weapons, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Currently, Iran’s enrichment level hovers near 60%.