Israeli-Iranian conflict unlikely to escalate into a large-scale war — expert

World October 02, 16:14

Boris Dolgov stressed that, despite the low probability of a full-scale war, new strikes by Israel and Iran are not ruled out

MOSCOW, October 2. /TASS/. The likelihood that the conflict between Israel and Iran will escalate into a large-scale war in the Middle East is small, but tensions in the region will continue, Boris Dolgov, a leading research fellow of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies, has told TASS.

Dolgov drew attention to the fact that Iran's latest strike on Israel was more powerful than previous strikes exchanged by Israel and Iran.

Nevertheless, according to the analyst, "it is still unlikely to assume an expansion of the conflict and the beginning of a major war in the Middle East."

"Since none of the main external actors in the Middle East conflict - neither Iran nor the United States - needs this major war," Dolgov explained.

However, the expert stressed that, despite the low probability of a full-scale war, new strikes by Israel and Iran are not ruled out.

As the expert noted, Israel hopes that Iran's retaliatory actions will pull the United States into a war in the Middle East. However, due to the election campaign in the United States, Washington will refrain from direct participation in the conflict between Iran and Israel, he said.

"None of the presidential candidates needs a major war that will entail losses among American troops and will put the US leadership under attack and criticism both inside the country and abroad," the expert went on.

The analyst also believes that Israel's aggressive actions in Lebanon have led to a "retaliatory strike" from Iran. Dolgov specified that yesterday's attack by Iran did sufficient damage to both civilian and military infrastructure of Israel.

"A missile attack from Iran is a warning signal for Israel that if the conflict continues, and especially if it escalates on the part of Israel, let's say, strikes on Iran's strategic facilities will entail similar strikes from Iran, perhaps even more powerful ones," the expert concluded.

On the evening of October 1, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, the elite unit of Iran's armed forces) launched a massive ballistic and hypersonic missile attack against Israel. An air-raid warning was declared throughout the country, and the population was ordered to take shelter. The IRGC said that 90% of the missiles successfully hit their designated targets. Israel, in turn, said that Iran had fired some 180 missiles into the country, most of which were intercepted. The Israeli army assured that the Iranian attack did not damage the combat capability of the country's air force.

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