SHANGHAI, October 2. /TASS/. Israel's tough response to Iran's missile attack may put the situation in the region on the brink of going out of control, but both sides are aware that the price of a direct war will be too high, Shu Meng, the editor-in-chief of the Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Shanghai International Studies University has told TASS.

The expert believes this time that Iran's actions were due to both internal and external factors. After the assassination of a number of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, Iran's agents in the region were badly affected and Khamenei found himself under unprecedented pressure.

On September 30, Shu pointed out, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his provocative speech speculated about a "direct dialogue with the Iranian people," which was a direct challenge to the legitimacy of the Iranian regime.

"In this case, Iran could not but respond to dispel the doubts of some people inside the country and to preserve and consolidate its regional outward influence," the expert believes.

Israel's response

"On the other hand, Iran and Israel are involved in long-term strategic confrontation. Since the cost of a direct war will be too high, both sides believe that the other side has a certain strategic restraint and will tacitly avoid a direct conflict and violent escalation. Therefore, Iran is also expecting that an Israeli response will not have serious repercussions. But if Israel does retaliate violently, this would put the situation on the brink of going out of control," Shu opined.

As for Israel's response, judging by the latest statements of its leadership, Tel Aviv has taken the initiative to strike hard at Iran’s supporters. The conflict may be on the verge of expanding, the expert warns.

"From the perspective of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu himself, due to his own long-standing crisis of legitimacy of power, he is trying to expand the conflict situation to continue his political career under martial law in Israel, and also presses for breakthroughs in the conflict to ward off various negative consequences that the Gaza conflict has brought for him personally since 2023," she said.

Shu believes that by doing so, Netanyahu has put his personal concerns above peace in the region. In addition, there have been constant calls for a tougher attitude toward Iran and resistance forces inside Israel. Netanyahu tends to turn an attentive ear to the public opinion.

"First of all, the further development of the situation mainly depends on the strength of Israel’s retaliatory strike. If Israel strikes fast and causes serious damage to Iran, the situation will continue to escalate rapidly. If this time Israel's response is relatively restrained and causes harm to Iran through prolonged subversion from within, this, too, will have a rather strong impact on Iran, and the escalation will continue," the expert believes.

Situation in Iran

Shu pointed out that reformers in the government of the current Iranian president would be unable to change the political situation in Iran, as hardliners still determine the general trend of the country's development.

"After Israel's retaliatory actions, the path of reform in Iran will become hopelessly impossible," the expert believes.

Iran's missile strike

On the evening of October 1, Iran carried out a massive missile strike on Israel in response to the assassinations of key figures in the leadership of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Tehran said 90% of the missiles successfully hit the designated targets, while Israel claims Iran had launched about 180 missiles and most of them were intercepted.

Israel's General Staff promised to "choose the time" and surprise with its response to the attack. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned in Hebrew that the strikes on Israel would be even more extensive.