TEL AVIV, September 17. /TASS/. The Israeli leadership may launch a full-scale military operation against the Shiite movement Hezbollah in Lebanon within six weeks, The Jerusalem Post newspaper reported citing sources.

"Finally, the winter factor comes into play. Sources have told the Post that if more than 4-6 weeks pass without an operation, it may be impossible - or much harder - to carry out such an operation until Spring 2025," the newspaper wrote. According to its sources, the weather conditions in mountainous Lebanon are far more fierce and difficult compared to what the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) faced in Gaza’s deserts.

Postponing large-scale military actions until a later date would mean that 60,000 Israelis evacuated from the northern border areas would have to spend another six months away from their homes. Such a measure becomes increasingly unpopular in Israel.

In addition, Israel's political leadership got confident about the military operation against Hezbollah after it successfully thwarted Hezbollah’s rocket attack on August 25 this year. At this day, several thousand shells were blown up before these threats could even be launched. This led to a revised estimate of possible casualties from launching a ground operation against Lebanon: it was originally thought that in the event of war, there could be 5,000-10,000 dead Israelis from tens of thousands of Hezbollah rockets launched into Israel.

"None of this means that a new broader war with Hezbollah is certain; it would still be a risky proposition for Israel, Hezbollah, and also for the sides’ sponsors: the US and Iran," according to the newspaper.

As the authors of the article point out, the US involvement in a regional war may be seen as a failure of Washington's almost year-long diplomatic efforts to prevent a large-scale conflict, which could impact presidential election race. On the other hand, Iran could lose Hezbollah as its major potential threat against Israel, if a war breaks out. "This is the riskiest time in the North [of Israel] since October 7," the authors of the article said.