LONDON, August 1. /TASS/. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky may think about starting peace talks with Russia before dissent in Ukrainian society over the course of the conflict becomes a serious problem for him, former UK Ambassador to Moscow (2004-2008) Tony Brenton told a TASS correspondent, adding that the basis of the negotiation process could be a document that the delegations of Russia and Ukraine discussed in 2022.

"What I hear is this quite widespread, not very widely publicized dissent in Ukraine about the way the war is going. There is still a lot of damage, a lot of deaths. That it hasn't yet turned into decisive political pressure on Mr. Zelensky, but it must be worrying for him. And I would hope that as this becomes a genuine issue in Ukrainian domestic politics, he would contemplate opening some talks that would allow the question of how to bring this to an end to be properly addressed," the former diplomat said.

Open letter, Orban's diplomacy

In early July, Brenton, along with a number of prominent UK and American politicians, diplomats, and academics, co-authored an open letter calling for a start to peace talks on Ukraine.

"Since we wrote that letter, we've had a lot of criticism, as you've probably seen. The UK is still very firmly behind maintaining firm support for Ukraine, and anticipating that Ukraine will eventually make more progress towards winning the war, even if they don't actually win it. I think that is pretty much the situation throughout the European Union," the former ambassador said.

He named Hungary as the only exception, noting that the diplomatic activity of its Prime Minister Viktor Orban has put the EU in a "rather uncomfortable position." "Within the EU, the vast majority of member states at the moment are very firmly behind Ukraine, and it has no point in proceeding to talks," Brenton emphasized.

As for China's role, the former ambassador said that Beijing has "sufficiently good relations with both sides." He pointed out that it is essential to "keep that possibility alive."

Basis for peace talks

According to Brenton, the basis for the talks on Ukraine could be "a peace treaty, which everyone says was all moments is very nearly agreed back in 2022." "There are lots of details on the terms: Ukraine is free to join the European Union, but not NATO; Ukraine remains neutral. There will be agreed security arrangements between Russia, Ukraine and some outsiders, it will be important to guarantee Ukraine's continued security," the former UK ambassador to Moscow said.

"And then there will be the very difficult question of territory. What happens with Crimea, what happens with Donbass and so on <…> would be deferred. And then in five years you have a serious negotiation about what happened with Crimea, what happens with the other pieces of occupied territory, and that was the very close deal two years ago. It didn't fly for various reasons. But that actually seems to me to be a good place to start," he explained.

At the same time, Brenton expressed doubts that successful negotiations will be possible if Russia insists on the withdrawal of the Ukrainian armed forces from Donbass and Novorossiya. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in particular, voiced such conditions at a meeting with the Foreign Ministry on June 14. According to the former ambassador, neither Ukrainians will agree to these demands, nor the West will support them. "Obviously, the Ukrainians are not in a position to agree to that. The West is certainly not going to agree with any kind of endorsement and our hope is that it was done to give Russia some negotiating capital should the two sides begin to talk. Because there's certainly no agreement that can be reached barring a major victory of one side or another, if Russia insists on maintaining these territorial demands," Brenton opined.

Security guarantees for Russia

The former diplomat emphasized that Russia will also seek security guarantees from the West during the peace talks. "Russia has said from the very beginning that the core reason why they are acting the way they are is because they see Ukraine joining NATO as a security threat," he pointed out. In his opinion, guarantees that Ukraine would not join NATO would alleviate Russia's "security concerns" and "diminish Russian suspicions and concerns about the danger: the alleged danger of NATO attacking Russia." Brenton added that, in his opinion, "there's zero probability."

First step from Kiev

When asked whether the UK would support the idea of peace talks, the former ambassador said that this would only be possible if there was a first step from Kiev, for which the Ukrainian side might have to be persuaded. "Ukraine needs to move, we have committed ourselves to backing Ukraine. If Ukraine can be persuaded to get into talks to begin to explore territorial issues, all of that, they will have our own backing. We will not act ourselves without Ukraine taking the lead," Brenton underscored.