MOSCOW, September 9. /TASS/. Armenia is unlikely to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), but it will keep fanning tensions to show there is a threat to its security, Stanislav Pritchin, a senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the IMEMO RAS, told TASS.

"Objectively, Armenia is unlikely to leave the CSTO," he stressed because in a sense the country is "in a deadlock" at the moment. "But Yerevan is now maximizing tensions."

Speaking about the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh, the analyst pointed out that "it is Armenia that is raising the ante, for it wants to show that its security is really threatened."

In this regard, the expert drew attention to the fact that Russia and its peacekeepers continued to be "the only guarantor of security of Armenia and the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, at least until November 2025."

He believes that if Armenia "leaves the CSTO, it will to a certain extent downgrade relations with Russia".

According to Vladimir Novikov, the head of the Caucasus Department at the Institute of CIS Countries, the Armenian side has already actually proclaimed a "policy of breaking with the CSTO."

"It remains to be seen whether the revocation of the country's permanent representative to the CSTO, Viktor Biyagov, was the first sign of severing relations or just a planned rotation, but in any case, it is a very symbolic gesture, which fits in well with a number of other decisions made, including joint exercises with the United States and so on," the expert concluded.

Armenia’s revocation of envoy to CSTO

Earlier, Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan signed a decree on recalling the country's permanent representative to the CSTO Viktor Biyagov in connection with his appointment as ambassador to the Netherlands. The decree is published on the presidential website.

On September 6, the Armenian Defense Ministry said that a joint military exercise by Armenia and the United States - Eagle Partner 2023 - will be held on Armenian territory on September 11-20.