MOSCOW, August 17. /TASS/. The possibility of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) conducting military action against rebels in Niger is growing less likely with each passing day, Xavier Messe A Tiati, director general of the Cameroon News Agency (CNA), told TASS.

According to him, the shrinking probability of intervention is attributable to the logistics challenges of conducting such an operation, the absence of unity within ECOWAS, and the unwavering support of Niger’s population for the rebels who have seized power.

"The threat of ECOWAS intervening militarily in events in Niger is becoming increasingly less likely with each day," he said. "This idea is not supported by the majority of ECOWAS member states by far, out of 15 countries only five confirmed the intention to participate in the intervention: Senegal, Ivory Coast, Guinea-Bissau, Benin and Nigeria. Eight stand for seeking ways for a diplomatic settlement. Out of those five ready to go to war, only Nigeria and Benin share a border with Niger. The three others will have to use aviation to deliver their troops to Niamey [capital of Niger - TASS] because Guinea, Burkina Faso or Mali, who are against the war, won’t let them pass through their territories. Chad, having an impressive military potential, is not in ECOWAS. Its president, Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, is against resolving the crisis in Niger militarily," the expert explained.

Military operation against Niger

"And, certainly, ECOWAS’ military operation against Niger cannot be held without the support of the 1,500 French servicemen stationed at a base in Niamey and the approximately 800 Americans, also at their base in Niger," the CNA chief noted. "Logistics and financial support from France, which also has extensive intelligence capabilities, are particularly important," he added.

Attitude of Africans

"The Africans know very well that it is precisely France standing behind those countries that are preaching war against Niger," the news executive pointed out. "For many days, the religious leaders of Mali, Togo and Nigeria have been warning about the dangers of military action. That said, the population in Niger itself firmly supports the military," he added.

"The Nigerien military went against President Mohamed Bazoum being confident that he did not respect them and underestimated them. They have more confidence in the French servicemen located in Niamey than in their own president. On the other hand, they were greatly influenced by decisive statements in favor of African unity made by the military leaders of Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso, who are very popular in their countries. The Nigerien military wanted to follow their example. The most important thing is that the Africans no longer agree to tolerate the blatant injustice of the policy line that France has conducted with regard to them for over 60 years. The military leaders in Niger think that they are capable of curtailing this policy," the news agency head explained.

Future of Trans-Saharan gas pipeline

"After the July 26 coup in Niger, many analysts opined that the Nigeria-Niger-Algeria Trans-Saharan gas pipeline project would be immediately suspended, on the one hand, due to political instability in the country, and on the other, over mounting tensions in the various regions it crosses," the expert noted. "This is about the Niger Delta, where Islamic extremists have become active, as well as about the Sahel region, where Tuareg rebels are restive again. Both are regularly attacking energy infrastructure facilities," he explained.

An agreement for building the 4,000-kilometer-long Trans-Saharan gas pipeline for transporting gas from Nigeria to Algeria via Niger was signed by the governments of the three countries back in 2009. However, the implementation of the project has been repeatedly postponed, among other factors, due to the activity of the Niger Delta Liberation Front. When the agreement was concluded, the total volume of investment in the project was assessed at $10 bln.

In July 2022, amid Europe’s energy crisis, Algiers, Abuja and Niamey signed a memorandum of understanding providing for renewing work on the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline project. Its planned capacity amounts to 30 bln cubic meters annually.

In late July, a group of military rebels in Niger announced the removal of President Bazoum. They then established the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (known as CNSP for its French name: Conseil national pour la sauvegarde de la patrie), headed by General Abdourahmane Tchiani, to run the country. The ECOWAS leaders imposed severe sanctions on the rebels, demanded that Bazoum be released and threatened to use force.

On August 10, upon returning from the ECOWAS summit, Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara said that the ECOWAS leaders agreed to launch a military operation in Niger as soon as possible. The CNSP ordered the Nigerien army on high alert amid ECOWAS’ statements on its readiness to launch an intervention.