RABAT, August 3. /TASS/. The initiative to conduct a military operation in Niger, where rebel presidential guards ousted head of state Mohamed Bazoum in late July, is being spearheaded by France and Nigeria, political analyst Salif Sidibe, resident in Mali’s capital Bamako, told TASS on Thursday.

"The idea of military intervention in Niger comes primarily from the French, who enjoy considerable influence in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). But Paris operates there through mechanisms that are not visible to the general public. For instance, the French authorities have dirt on a number of ruling regimes in West Africa and they use this dirt in some cases as a lever for blackmail to push their interests. Therefore, the statements and ideas that can be heard at ECOWAS summits are in certain instances inspired by France," Sidibe said.

"Niger is crucial to France as it is a source of almost 20% of uranium fuel for its nuclear power plants. Niger hosts a large French Air Force base and a contingent of about 1,500 troops. After the withdrawal of its army units from Mali and Burkina Faso, Paris hates the idea that it may suffer another setback and beat a hasty retreat again - this time from Niger. In that case the only large French contingent in the region will be the one in Chad, but from there it will be difficult to intervene in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and other countries of the Sahel zone," he explained.

"In fact, Niger is now the West's main support base in the Sahel, as there are also two US military bases in that country," Sidibe said.

Will ECOWAS make up its mind?

"It is also noteworthy that Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu, who took office in May, has been active about seeking to launch a military operation in Niger. His election victory is contested and questioned, so he is interested in solving his internal problems by shifting the focus of public attention to international issues, including the situation in neighboring Niger," the expert explained.

"A robust coalition of several armies is needed to carry out a military intervention in Niger. But no such coalition is in sight at the moment, because ECOWAS does not have the necessary forces and capabilities. If ECOWAS does approve the launch of military intervention in Niger, its member-countries will one way or another have to ask for support from France or the US, or both," Sidibe noted.

"Nigeria does have a fairly large and well-equipped army. But if only the Nigerian army intervenes, this will no longer be an ECOWAS operation, but an act of aggression and Nigeria's meddling in Niger's internal affairs. The authorities of Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Algeria have already made it clear that they are against military intervention in Niger," Sidibe pointed out.

"There is another important aspect. The border zones of Nigeria and Niger are home to close ethnic groups, the Hausa and the Fulani. Nigeria's possible intervention in Niger would backfire before long," he emphasized.

Implications of intervention in Libya

"If there is a need for an international coalition now, then for the sole purpose of fighting terrorist and separatist groups, drug trafficking and arms smuggling in West Africa and the Sahel region. Successes on these tracks could help stabilize this part of the continent and reduce the likelihood of military coups and rebellions," the expert believes.

"On the other hand, everyone is well aware that all this chaos in the Sahel region began with the French and US military invasion of Libya in 2011. They overthrew Muammar Gaddafi, ruined Libya and created a mess in the Sahel. And, in my opinion, they did that on purpose. The way I see it, the Tuareg separatist movements in the Sahel region are meeting with support and understanding from France," Sidibe said. "As a result, France's actions, detrimental to the interests of countries and peoples in West Africa and the Sahel region, create a slew of problems and foment anti-French sentiment.".