MOSCOW, February 1. /TASS/. The Iranian government risks facing a severe crisis stemming not so much from the threat of a direct confrontation with Israel and other outside powers, as from a mounting domestic protest movement, Vladimir Sazhin, a senior fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences told TASS on Wednesday.
On Sunday, January 29, the IRNA news agency reported that a large explosion occurred late on Saturday in the city of Isfahan, located in the central part of Iran. Later, the Defense Ministry said it was an unsuccessful drone attack on one of its centers.
A number of media publications mentioned Israel as possibly involved in the attack. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not respond directly to journalists’ questions to this effect.
In this regard, much attention was focused on Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s address to the nation on the eve of the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, but no statements regarding Israel followed. Sazhin said this was only natural and explained that "Iran is not ready for a serious response now."
"The president’s calm speech confirms that Iran will not actively respond to drone strikes," the analyst continued. "I think neither Jerusalem nor Tehran are going to turn a hybrid war into a classic one."
Internal threats
Big risks for the ruling regime in Iran now stem from the internal situation. "The internal political situation in Iran is extremely serious. Since mid-September, anti-government protests have continued. There is a split within the Iranian political and economic elite. The main question is about the future of Iran and where it should go: either turn to the West, or finally team up with Russia. I must say that anti-Russian sentiment is quite strong there," Sazhin said.
Pro-Western politicians, he believes, cannot "give the green light to Iran's vigorous activity against the West."
"It is also necessary to point out that the economic situation in Iran is extremely difficult. The Iranian currency is falling against the dollar," he continued.
The people’s socio-economic discontent creates an excellent recruiting base for the intelligence agencies of those countries that oppose the regime.
"Of course, Israel has a large, serious spy network in Iran, and it is likely that it was these people having connections with Israel, the United States or Britain that launched these drones. According to Iran, the UAVs were small, unable to cover long distances. This means that they were launched from the territory of Iran. Or from the border regions of neighboring countries," the expert noted.
Will facelifting measures work?
Against the backdrop of a difficult internal situation, the ruling regime in Iran is experiencing a "very difficult moment." The current situation requires its transformation, however, in order to preserve the Islamic republic as such, there can only be superficial measures.
"Now there are serious discussions in the upper echelons of power about what to do. If everything is left as it is, in a few months, or maybe in a year everything could collapse," Sazhin said. "Iranian analysts write that the new Iranian year of 1402 will be very difficult. It’s still up in the air whether the regime can survive in its current form".