MOSCOW, January 13. /TASS/. The discovery of secret files in the office and home of US President Joe Biden could sway the political scales in favor of his Republican opponents as the 2024 presidential campaign draws near, political science and international relations experts told TASS on Friday.

The US Department of Justice has launched an in-depth investigation into last November’s discovery of secret documents dating back to Biden's vice-presidency (2008-2016) and even appointed a special counsel. In August, former US President Donald Trump was accused of illegal possession of classified documents.

Similarities and distinctions

However similar the two incidents may look at first glance, it would be wrong to draw parallels, says Andrey Kortunov, the General Director of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). "In this case, the focus is on the incumbent president, who controls, among other things, the law enforcement agencies and the US Department of Justice, so it would probably be unreasonable to expect some kind of criminal case against Biden," he believes.

"If there are any consequences for the president, they will be not so much legal as political. In other words, his reputation will suffer," Kortunov forecasts. "However, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and CNN tend to support Biden. Most likely they will throw their weight behind the Democratic Party in its attempts to play down this scandal."

Election draws near

Nevertheless, it will hardly be possible to brush the affair under the rug completely, especially as the 2024 presidential campaign draws near. "Against the general background, this is another weight that the Republicans can safely add to their side to tip the political scales in their favor against the Democrats and achieve victory," Kortunov said.

At the same time, the scandal "is unlikely to become a decisive factor" in the election campaign or affect Biden's decision to run, says Andrey Bystritsky, the board chairman of the Foundation for the Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club. "This tactic is typical of the struggle between political factions in the US."

Bystritsky draws attention to the fact that it is not yet clear from media reports how serious the secret documents were. "Taken separately, this affair is unlikely to become a key one, but, of course, it will add a pinch of pepper to the United States’ current political cuisine," the expert believes.

However, there is no reason to suspect a "political conspiracy" behind this case, says Dmitry Suslov, the deputy head of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, a Valdai Club expert. "Otherwise, Biden’s entourage would have stated this from the outset. Most likely, there is a systemic problem with the handling of secret documents."

The expert is sure that the discovered documents’ unmistakable Ukrainian flavor is not accidental. "It was none other than Biden who oversaw the Ukrainian track in the Obama administration," Suslov recalls. "The way I see it, the Republicans will not miss the chance to capitalize on this factor to the maximum extent to complicate the process of allocating more money for Ukraine."

Nervous future

Amid these scandals, Biden may well be impeached, but this motion is unlikely to be approved by the Senate, says the head of the Political Science Department at the G. V. Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Andrey Koshkin. He explains that the current instability both in society and in the US judicial branch "causes serious legal ‘nervousness’ and worries the government’s executive wing."

At the same time, Biden's political prospects, even if he retains office until 2024, remain vague: "Society is very unhappy with such a president. The loss of economic, social and domestic well-being is another factor on the debit side of his balance sheet."

More scandals, including those over the discovered files are definitely looming on the horizon, says Alexey Martynov, the director of the International Institute of Recent States. "The practice of exposing such violations has been used as a tool of political struggle for quite some time," he explains. "It was the case with both Trump and [former US Secretary of State] Hillary Clinton, when it turned out she had used her private e-mail address for official communication."

Trump's speculations that Biden had been passing secrets to China could also come to the fore, Martynov says. "This is a manipulative information struggle, an overture, a warmup before the forthcoming battles," the expert concluded.