Chinese analyst says war with Taiwan is unlikely, but US could change things sharply

World September 09, 2022, 19:58

As Guo Xinning said, if the separatists in Taipei and external forces do not escalate the situation in the Taiwan Strait, everything will be stable

BEIJING, September 9. /TASS/. The likelihood that the People’s Liberation Army of China and Taiwanese separatists will be engaged in hostilities over the next few years is low, but the current administration of the island and the US have the potential to provoke unpredictable consequences, Guo Xinning, a senior researcher at Taihe Institute, told TASS on Friday.

"Over the next few years, the likelihood of a large-scale war in the Taiwan Strait is small, but if the separatists in Taipei, together with the United States, persist in taking steps in the wrong direction, it’s likely that the Chinese government will take decisive measures" Guo Xinning, who is also a professor at Tsinghua University, said in an interview.

The analyst said the PRC will adhere to a peaceful path to achieve Taiwan's reunification with the mainland.

"If the separatists in Taipei and external forces do not escalate the situation in the Taiwan Strait, everything will be stable," he said in the interview that followed a Taihe conference that took place in Beijing this week. "With regard to [US House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi's recent provocative visit to Taiwan, China has shown a high degree of responsibility in terms of maintaining regional stability, demonstrating maximum restraint. That’s because we hope for peace and seek to resolve the Taiwan issue peacefully."

"However, if supporters of the so-called independence of Taiwan and external anti-Chinese forces continue to persistently implant separatist aspirations, the PRC government will take radical measures, including forceful methods with the use of weapons. Let me remind you that shortly before February 24, when the special military operation began in Ukraine, many people didn’t believe that hostilities would begin," he went on to say.

Taiwan has been governed by its local administration since 1949 when the Kuomintang’s remaining forces headed by Chiang Kai-shek (1887-1975) were defeated in the Chinese Civil War and took refuge on the island. Taiwan has preserved the flag and several other symbols of the Republic of China that had existed before the Communists took over the mainland. Beijing regards the island as one of its provinces, a stance supported by most other countries including Russia.

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