MOSCOW, January 11. /TASS/. Russia’s talks on security guarantees with the US and NATO, which have begun recently, raised the main question of 2022, and the near future will tell if Moscow succeeds in retaking the initiative in terms of relations with the West, a team of experts from Moscow State Institute of International Relations said in a report dubbed "Global Threats 2022. Retaking the Initiative."

"Developments in Ukraine, Belarus, Nagorno-Karabakh and Kazakhstan clearly show that regardless of political modalities, relations with Russia are the key factor of stability," the report reads.

Meanwhile, the authors pointed to the difficult situation around talks on security guarantees.

"The odds are high that the United States and its allies will seek to engage Russia in an elongated negotiation process that will not lead to the necessary results and thus will not suit Moscow. In this case, the chances of Russia’s ‘military and military-technical response’ will be higher. If the US authorities show a willingness to guarantee that they will not deploy military infrastructure to Ukraine, it will reduce the risk of military activities. However, even this is unlikely to remove Moscow’s demands from the agenda," the analysts point out.

On Russia-US relations

The experts emphasized that the 2021 talks between Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Joe Biden of the United States had given impetus to Russian-US dialogue in a number of fields. "In 2022, the parties may be expected to move from consultations on strategic stability to specific discussions within working groups," the authors of the report said. They also believe that Moscow and Washington will highly likely avoid "a large-scale and uncontrollable arms race" in 2022 but can hardly be expected to agree on a common "level of security."

Focus on Ukraine

Talks on security guarantees between Russia and the West make the Ukraine-related international agenda ever more important for the domestic situation in the country. At the same time, the experts noted that Ukraine was going through the most difficult crisis since Vladimir Zelensky’s election as president. The report raises the question of whether the current head of state will manage to retain his post.

Provocations against Russia

The report emphasizes that the dialogue on security guarantees removes the risk of provocations in other parts of the world, where the risk of tensions is not that high. Incidents may be staged in order "to undermine the reliability of Russia’s military guarantees and show Russia’s weakness and vulnerability," it is also possible that "Russia would be attacked through pressure on its allies."

"Attempts to derail Russia’s talks with the US and NATO on security guarantees may involve new scandals based on allegations about cyberthreats coming from our country and election meddling. The leaders of key Western nations are prepared for talks but their junior partners in NATO strongly oppose any agreements with Russia," the experts warned.