MOSCOW, November 11. /TASS/. Secretary of Russia’s Security Council Nikolai Patrushev recognizes that the United States, the European Union and Japan remain influential economic centers, but claims that they are slowly losing ground. Therefore, a polycentric architecture of international relations is forming in the world.
"Traditional poles of power are slowly ceding their ground - primarily in the west. Even though the US, the EU and Japan are still holding on as the most significant economic centers, their prospects are slowly growing dimmer amid unfavorable demographic situation and depletion of capabilities for intensive economic growth," Patrushev wrote in an article entitled Russia’s Security in the Modern World and published in the Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper. According to him, "G7 is losing its authority at the backdrop of the ever-expanding importance of G20 which can also be attributed to these processes."
The official believes that we are talking about "emergence of new global and regional centers of economic and political influence whose share of the global trade volume and system of international political coordinates is steadily surging." "Particularly, China is laying claims to a global power status, while states such as India, Brazil and South Africa have cemented themselves as regional leaders. Global issues can no longer be effectively resolved if opinions of the aforementioned actors are not taken into account," he emphasized.
Patrushev noted that "Russia’s 2035 Strategic Prognosis sets out four scenarios of global developments. "First of them is a transition to a polycentric world order. Second - the US continuing attempts to hold onto its dominance. Third - forming of a bipolar world order, while fourth is stronger regionalization processes," he listed. At the same time, the Security Council secretary underlined that "it is important to understand that given geopolitical reality is much more complicated than any abstract plans. No forecast can be 100% correct, therefore, we can talk about dominance of certain tendencies in the modern world." "So, in the modern world we can undeniably observe trends of a polycentric architecture forming," Patrushev believes.
US, Russia and China
"It is clear that emergence of new global and regional power centers could not sit well with traditional ones - primarily the Unites States and the so-called collective West guided by it," Patrushev acknowledged. He recalled that "in the 1990s, Americans believed that Russia was a fully spent force, while China could not make a case for a first-tier global power even despite all its economic breakthroughs." According to the official, "it gave rise to an illusion that a liberal world order based on the US hegemony was established once and for all in the world."
"Nevertheless, already by the end of the 2010s Russia had managed to dynamically restore its potential and recover its lost influence on the world arena. China, in turn, had begun to resolutely challenge the US status of a world economic leader. Today, Beijing generates bigger GDP (based on purchasing power parity, PPP) than Washington," he wrote. Patrushev also specified that "other countries are also now vying for global economic driving force status, primarily India that is more and more decisively pursuing its political ambitions." "In these conditions, the White House felt the evident need to drastically correct its geopolitical strategy," Patrushev is convinced.
The Security Council secretary drew attention to the fact that "in December 2017 [US President Donald] Trump approved a new National Security Strategy." "It openly states that Moscow and Beijing are challenging the US power, influence and interests by trying to undermine security and welfare of America."
It is stressed that both countries intend to "restrict freedom and fairness in economy, ramp up their military potential as well as control information and data to oppress their societies and expand influence." "In view of this, three key areas were singled out as priorities in restraining Russia and China - military and political, economic and information and communication," Patrushev specified.
"Based on this, we regularly assess and forecast situation in each of these areas to determine key tasks of ensuring national security of Russia," he concluded.