World's population will begin to decline in 2046 — Russian official
Maxim Oreshkin said there are different estimates of when the world will reach its population peak
MOSCOW, January 30. /TASS/. The world has entered a period of severe depopulation, with the planet's population expected to reach its maximum in 2046, Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Chief of Staff Maxim Oreshkin said at an expert dialogue meeting.
"This is one of the key problems for our entire planet because de facto we, as a human civilization, have entered a period of severe depopulation. Yes, the population continues to grow, and yes, we see the planet's population increasing every year, but the peak is very close," he said.
The process of contraction of the total fertility rate has been going on for quite a long time, Oreshkin added.
"But right now we've reached the point where this level is falling below the replacement level. That is, even in terms of this basic statistical indicator, we've fallen below this waterline, meaning we've already entered the zone where humanity will cease its expansion on the planet and begin to decline, step by step," he said.
There are different estimates of when the world will reach its population peak, the official noted.
"China, which just 10 years ago had a birth rate of around 17-18 million children, dropped below 8 million births last year, representing a twofold contraction of the birth rate. This trend of declining birth rate is being observed in virtually every region of the world simultaneously. Therefore, if we adjust for all these indicators and set realistic assumptions, the planet's population peak is actually not that far away. According to our estimates, it will be around 2046, or perhaps even a little earlier," he explained.