MOSCOW, May 28. /TASS/. A military conflict over Taiwan would be a major shock for the world economy, which wouldn’t benefit the US, Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at Higher School of Economics, said in an interview with TASS on Friday.

"The conflict, if it flares up in the coming years, will be a major shock for the global economy and disrupt a large number of international production chains," he said. "First of all, all high-tech sectors of the economy ranging from the production of electronics to the automotive industry and shipbuilding will suffer because everyone relies on Taiwanese microchips."

The analyst said the current situation in the region indicates that an armed conflict is possible, but not "right now, but within the next few years."

"China has increased the frequency of exercises since the situation around Taiwan began to worsen for it, as the influence of separatist forces on the island increased, and as military cooperation between the US and Taiwan expanded," he said.

For Washington, however, an armed conflict over Taiwan would be undesirable, Kashin said. According to the researcher, the US would like to "just smoothly lead Taiwan to an ultimate separation from the PRC."

"However, Taiwan is much more important for the US than Ukraine, there is a different level of American involvement," Kashin said. "The US will really protect Taiwan if a conflict arises there."

Taiwan has been governed by its local administration since 1949 when the Kuomintang’s remaining forces headed by Chiang Kai-shek (1887-1975) were defeated in the Chinese Civil War and took refuge on the island. Taiwan has preserved the flag and several other symbols of the Republic of China that had existed before the Communists took over the mainland. Beijing regards the island as one of its provinces, a stance supported by most other countries including Russia.