MOSCOW, June 10./TASS/. Forecasting the spread of the novel coronavirus necessitates new epidemiological models. In particular, information about a necessary immune layer of 60-70% of the population may prove outdated, Alexander Lukashev, Director of First Moscow State Medical University’s Martsinovsky Institute of Medical Parasitology, Tropical and Vector Borne Diseases, said on Wednesday.

"The key issue of epidemiology - we don’t know what immune layer we need. The classical, cited in epidemiology textbooks, is 60% to 70%," Lukashev told a Russian-Belarusian conference on coronavirus.

"However, the textbooks don’t factor it in that our society has a complex structure, and the frequency of contacts among the people is different, so we need absolutely new epidemiological models to plan our restrictive measures and to understand how the outbreak develops," Lukashev said.

He also noted the role of the so-called super-spreaders of coronavirus. That is why, a ban on mass events is among the most efficient measures to fight the spread of the novel coronavirus. "If we exclude the super-spreaders, we are drastically changing the pace of the spread of the virus," the scientist said.

In reply to the question from Alexander Sergeyev, President of the Russian Academy of Sciences about characteristic features of such infected persons, he said that a combination of factors is needed for mass infection - high virus titers in the oropharyngeal cavity of the infected person and external circumstances - this person must be in a crowded location with a lot of vulnerable people and a bad ventilation system.

According to Lukashev, a second wave remains likely. One should not pin hopes on the summer temperatures, he cautioned, citing Iran, which sees a second wave of coronavirus despite a warm weather.

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. According to the latest statistics, over 7,336,200 people have been infected worldwide and more than 414,000 deaths have been reported. In addition, so far, over 3,617,900 individuals have recovered from the illness across the globe.