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Open Skies Treaty’s future to depend on Europe’s position during conference - expert

According to the expert, the United States is expected to reiterate its decision to quit the treaty at the upcoming videoconference

MOSCOW, July 5. /TASS/. The Treaty on Open Skies will be equally serving Russia’s and Europe’s interests even after the United States’ withdrawal from it but Moscow wants Europeans to voice an acceptable position on the matter at tomorrow’s on the treaty, the Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University-Higher School of Economics, member of the Valdai discussion club Dmitry Suslov told TASS on Sunday.

According to the expert, the United States is expected to reiterate its decision to quit the treaty at the upcoming videoconference. So, in his words, the agenda will center round the future of this arms control mechanism. "As for the prospects for the treaty without the United States and prospects for Russia’s participation in it, it will depend on the position of European nations. As a matter of fact, it is a central point of the agenda to be discussed on Monday. And so far, there is no clarity on it," he explained.

He stressed that the regime of observation flights is an essential tool of ensuring security and predictability in Europe and "and so far, it is too early to say that the treaty is doomed." "Objectively, the Open Skies Treaty is beneficial for both Russia and European even without the United States, because both sides receive information and data about each other’s armed forces and military infrastructure. It creates some sort of certainty, which is essential from the point of view of minimizing military risks, preventing incidents, and from the point of view of military planning," he noted.

Europe’s choice

Moscow, according to the expert, wants to clarify during the videoconference whether European nations were also looking at possible withdrawing from the Open Skies Treaty and siding with Washington’s groundless accusations in respect of Russia. A number of treaty signatories are demonstrating open hostility in respect of Russia, despite the obvious benefits the treaty avails, Suslov noted, adding that these countries, for instance Poland, the Baltic republics, Ukraine, and Georgia, may make a consensus hard to reach.

"If such a position is voiced by some European states, especially those most loyal to the United States, in this case, the treaty will be in danger. In such a case, there is high probability it will cease to exist in a foreseeable future. With European nations quitting it, it will be absolutely senseless for Russia," he stressed.

Nevertheless, if Europe reiterates its commitment to the treaty unanimously and unequivocally and pledges to continue to abide by it after the US’ withdrawal, the Open Skies Treaty will have all the chances to stay in force. Moscow hopes for this outcome of the conference and calls on the European partners to spare no effort for that.

Russia to draw a red line

Russia’s further steps will depend on how the Europeans implement the treaty’s provisions concerning the ban on the transfer of observation flight data to third countries.

Suslov recalled that despite the United States’ withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty, it is bound by allied relations with other NATO partners in Europe. Hence, there is a risk of an asymmetric situation when Russia is striped of a possibility to legitimately obtain information about the United States while the Americans will be able to continue to receive data about flights over Russia from its European allies.

"This is an unacceptable situation for Russia. So, it will state its position at the upcoming meeting clearly and unequivocally: if European signatories to the Open Skies Treaty share their data with the United States, participation in this treaty will be unacceptable for Russia and it will quit this agreement. It will, so to say, clarity Russia’s position," the expert stressed, adding that Moscow will keep an eye on the reaction of other countries to its statements.

"As a matter of fact, the future of the Open Skies Treaty will depend on these two issues, namely participation of European countries in the treaty and transfer of data about flight to the United States," Suslov noted.

No alternative to Open Skies Treaty

According to the expert, if attempts to keep the Open Skies Treaty in place fail, no such agreement is possible in the current political situation. "So far, there are no political perspectives for that, with absolutely no trust between the sides [Russia and NATO countries]. It looks like confrontation between Russia and the United States will be continued regardless of the outcome of the upcoming presidential relations in the United States," Suslov explained.

With no legitimate mechanism of data collection about each other’s military infrastructure, countries will have to rely only on satellite reconnaissance data. "It is less reliable and detailed information than photos and data received during officially permitted flights. Nevertheless, satellite reconnaissance systems allowing for the possibility of obtaining quite exact photos from the outer space may give a certain degree of predictability," he added.

Situation around Open Skies Treaty

US President Donald Trump declared on May 21 Washington was going to withdraw from the Treaty on Open Skies, which provides for inspection flights over member countries’ territories to monitor military activities. He motivated this step by Russia’s alleged violation of the treaty. US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said in a written statement that the decision to withdraw from the treaty will come into effect in six months after May 22.

Moscow denies these accusations and puts forward counterclaims. Thus, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Russia has already voiced its own claims to the United States concerning this treaty’s implementation. According to Vladimir Yermakov, director of the Russian foreign ministry’s non-proliferation and arms control department, Washington’s attempts to picture its withdrawal from the treaty as a reaction to Russia’s breaches are absolutely groundless.

The Treaty on Open Skies was signed in March 1992 in Helsinki by 23 member nations of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The main purposes of the open skies regime are to develop transparency, render assistance in monitoring compliance with the existing or future arms control agreements, broaden possibilities for preventing crises and managing crisis situations. The treaty establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. Now, the treaty has more than 30 signatory states. Russia ratified the Treaty on Open Skies on May 26, 2001.