MOSCOW, November 11. /TASS/. Participants in the trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi discuss security guarantees for Russia and Ukraine, as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz threatens to block the EU’s next seven-year budget. Meanwhile, Russia expects OPCW experts to visit next year. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Media: Russia, Ukraine, US discuss security guarantees on Day 1 of Abu Dhabi peace talks

The trilateral talks taking place in Abu Dhabi will hardly result in a framework agreement, but the sides are close to agreeing on the very format of a further Ukraine settlement, experts interviewed by Izvestia argued. At the November 10 meeting, the parties discussed security guarantees for Russia and Ukraine after the hostilities and agreed on another prisoner exchange, the Ukrainian media reported, citing sources within their delegation. A source earlier confirmed to Izvestia that resolving the Ukraine conflict will be only one point, albeit important, of broader discussions on establishing a new system of continental security. The UAE capital is hosting Day 2 of the trilateral meeting on November 11.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the talks as productive. According to Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky, the meeting was "constructive and quite meaningful." The Russian delegation made no statements to the press, with plans to hold a news conference on Wednesday, a source within the negotiating team told TASS.

The Europeans did not give up their efforts to join the talks, despite the pre-arranged trilateral format of the meeting, and some of them even flew into Abu Dhabi in the hope of getting into the conference room. The European Union is pursuing the "containment" of Russia as it seeks to turn Ukraine into NATO’s eastern outpost, political analyst Mikhail Kucherov told Izvestia. Zelensky himself can neither change the course nor is willing to do so, as he receives substantial money and weapons from the EU, in return for committing himself to continuing the hostilities against Russia, the analyst argued.

That the US "matured" enough to discuss the fundamentals of European security and therefore the root causes of the Ukraine crisis for the first time in the post-Cold War era is of paramount importance, Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Vedomosti. According to him, the US will be forced to take into account the positions of both the hawks in the Trump administration - such as Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, - and its European allies.

As regards Washington, it is reluctant to agree to conditions that would reflect Russia’s wishes only, Suslov continued. Hence proposals are being made to introduce a mechanism for reinstating sanctions or guarantees similar to Articles 4 (regarding consultations) and 5 (defense measures in the event of an attack--which, in practice, do not automatically entail direct entry into combat) of the NATO Charter. According to Suslov, Moscow would agree to such conditions in theory. But any scenario of closer integration or even Ukraine’s informal role in NATO would be unacceptable to Russia, the expert maintained.

 

Kommersant: Merz threatens to block EU budget if any members refuse to finance Ukraine

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has threatened to block the EU’s seven-year budget if any member countries refuse to share the burden of financial support for Ukraine. The thing is Kiev urgently needs another €70 billion to cover the shortfall in its 2027 budget and not everybody across the EU is ready to help it with that at present. Germany is reluctant to assume the share of the burden from those who refuse to participate and Merz does not have enough political weight to persuade them amid domestic problems in his own country. The primary battle over the EU budget and funding for Ukraine will be fought at the bloc’s informal summit scheduled in Dublin on November 12-13.

The Financial Times reported that Merz has warned he will veto the EU’s next seven-year budget, citing the German chancellor’s letter to European Council President Antonio Costa. In it, the German head of government said he would back the bloc’s 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework only if all member states commit to financially supporting Ukraine.

The need for extra funding for Ukraine became apparent in October, when Kiev reported a €70 billion budget deficit for 2027. The EU agreed to provide €45 billion to cover part of that, leaving the remainder of the burden to allies outside the bloc. Securing the funds through joint borrowing, similar to the €90 billion loan previously extended to Ukraine, is a priority solution. However, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic have already indicated their reluctance to join.

Right now, Merz cannot allow individual members’ refusal to pay the bill to fall on Germany’s shoulders, so his warning to block the EU’s budget is quite real, Nikolay Topornin, a lawyer specializing in international affairs, told Kommersant. The reason is that the chancellor is facing harsh criticism at home, difficulties in getting Germany’s own budget approved and extremely low personal approval ratings against the backdrop of strong polling numbers for the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD). "I think he has reached an impasse as he lacks the necessary authority to find a good alternative, as before," Topornin said.

The warning from the chancellor of "the key EU member country" is a rare occurrence, and his actions could to a certain extent be a grandstand play, the expert argued. According to Topornin, Eastern European countries are keen to secure investment from the EU to implement various projects. Moreover, there is little time left to approve the budget, which means they will have to reach a "reasonable compromise" with Berlin. The process of reaching agreement on the EU budget is proving difficult, as other countries, apart from Germany, have also raised objections to the current expenditure items, he concluded.

 

Izvestia: Russia expects OPCW experts to visit next year

Russia expects experts from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to visit in 2027, the country’s Permanent Representative to the organization, Vladimir Tarabrin, told Izvestia. We are actively consulting with the Technical Secretariat on this topic. It is necessary to coordinate a number of organizational, technical and practical issues, including from the point of view of compliance with the internal procedures in force at the OPCW Technical Secretariat. We hope that this visit will take place next year," the diplomat said.

There are forces at the OPCW that "are not interested in Russia’s request being satisfied," Tarabrin stressed. According to these forces, a potential visit by OPCW experts to Russia may cast doubt on the image of Ukraine as an impeccable and innocent party that has been fully backed by supporters of the Kiev regime.

The position of the United States, which, for example, sits on the current OPCW Executive Council, is important here. Since 2022, any communication with the American side at the organization’s headquarters in The Hague has been interrupted at Washington’s initiative, Tarabrin noted. "Ever since, despite the dialogue being maintained between our countries’ presidents and their special envoys, the US delegation to the OPCW has not shown the slightest interest in restoring contacts or reviving any interaction," the diplomat said.

Great Britain, among other Western European countries, is perhaps opposed to granting Russia’s request, Moscow Pedagogical State University’s History and Politics Institute Deputy Director Vladimir Shapovalov told Izvestia. According to him, the delay in approving it points to major opposition, he argued.

According to St. Petersburg State University professor Natalya Yeryomina, by inviting OPCW experts to visit, Russia is fulfilling its international commitments. Furthermore, using the Organization as a venue for presenting evidence of Kiev’s use of toxic substances will make it possible to break the information blockade, especially since experts recording such actions by Kiev will be important in future trials at international courts, she added.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Moscow ranked among top three cities for business in Global South

The Russian capital took third in a ranking of the most attractive cities across the Global South for business and industries, trailing only Singapore and Shanghai. The comprehensive evaluation was carried out by experts at Yakov & Partners who published the Business and Industrial Development Conditions Index for Global South Cities, based on seven key aspects and 113 indicators.

"The Global South ceases to be a region of `catch-up’ development, as its cities are increasingly shaping the new economic geography. Our evaluation shows that today the main factor of competitiveness is not separate advantages but rather a city’s ability to integrate infrastructure, capital, public institutions and talent into a comprehensive development system. It is this approach that will enable cities across the Global South to strengthen their posture in the global economy and craft new hubs for industrial and technological development," the think tank quoted its expert Diana Yemelyanova as saying.

Alexander Polidi, an expert at the Stolypin Institute for the Economy of Growth and a member of the General Council of Business Russia, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the ranking is valuable because it offers a new perspective on factors determining the competitiveness of global cities and territories in terms of their potential. "The analysis shifted the focus from the conventional West-East axis to cities in the Global South, showing that new centers of power are emerging not only in the capitals of developed economies but also in Singapore, Shanghai, and Moscow, which is significant for us," he emphasized.

Moscow’s strongest positions are linked to conditions for business location and access to highly qualified personnel, the authors of the index noted. Thus, the city scored more than 70 points in the real estate and utilities category, trailing only Shanghai. This, Polidi argued, clearly demonstrates that a city’s infrastructure maturity is key to businesses.

Moscow also ranked second for human resources and the quality of life. "Moscow provides a favorable environment for its residents regarding the quality of air and water resources. The development of micro-mobility and car-sharing services have also improved as has the introduction of electric vehicles and the expansion of the associated infrastructure. It is also worth highlighting the accessibility and convenience of healthcare and educational services," Stepan Svetankov, a partner at Kept, explained to Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

 

Kommersant: Midterms push Brent prices below $90 per barrel

Brent crude fell below $90 per barrel for the first time since early fall, shedding 24% of its value since the start of this month. The market is pricing in a potential end to the US military operation in the Middle East in the wake of the Democratic victory in the Congressional elections.

The Democrats’ victory lowered the risks of a new bout of escalation in the Persian Gulf, a chokepoint for the bulk of global oil supplies, as the party favors ending the Middle East conflict as soon as possible. "Before the midterms, a scenario of new US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, further attacks on tankers and perhaps even more serious disruptions to supplies though the Strait of Hormuz were factored in the price of oil," Alyona Nikoloayeva, an independent portfolio manager for global markets, noted. Therefore, "the worst-case scenario looking less likely" was enough to push prices down sharply, she argued.

There were fundamental reasons behind the decline in oil prices as well, namely an increase in crude supplies from the region. According to Alexey Mikheyev, an investment strategist at VTB My Investments, oil and petroleum exports from the Gulf had recovered to more than 90% of pre-war levels. It’s worth noting that oil consumption has declined considerably amid high prices since the start of this year. "According to JP Morgan analysts, over the course of the hostilities, demand for crude oil has fallen by 3.3 million barrels per day," Ruslan Klyshko, director of the wealth management department at AF Capital Asset Management, told Kommersant.

The decline in oil prices is having a modest effect on the Russian currency market. On Tuesday, the over-the-counter (OTC) dollar exchange rate climbed by 30 kopecks to 82.8 rubles per dollar--an increase of nearly 90 kopecks since the beginning of the week. "The monthly average price of oil affects the ruble more than the spot price, as contract prices are not revised very often as a rule. Moreover, the price of Urals crude remains relatively high compared to the level of $59 per barrel priced in the state budget," Vladimir Yevstifeyev, head of the analytical department at Zenit Bank, noted. Consequently, he expects the dollar exchange rate to fluctuate within the 80-85 ruble range over the coming month.

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