MOSCOW, October 20. /TASS/. China may join Russia and the US in settling the Ukrainian conflict; the Russian government is undergoing major reshuffles; and NATO is preparing to further escalate tensions in the Black Sea region. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: China may join forces with Russia, US to settle Ukrainian crisis

China is preparing to support Russia and the US in their efforts to resolve the crisis in Ukraine. A meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin, his US counterpart Donald Trump, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping may take place in November at the APEC summit in Shenzhen. Experts believe that, if this happens, the leaders will discuss major global conflicts, including the one in Ukraine. Beijing continues to promote its peace initiatives, which Moscow actively supports. Meanwhile, relations between Russia and the US may have improved considerably by the time of the meeting.

If the leaders of the three powers do indeed meet, they will send important signals to the world on the settlement of the Ukraine crisis, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko told Izvestia. "In any case, we hope that if such a meeting takes place at the highest level, some targeted signals will likely be sent to the international community on the three countries’ positions on various conflicts," the senior diplomat said. "As I understand it, China has always been interested in resolving the conflict and is now reaffirming that interest. It has its own proposals, which it has previously put forward. I think it will continue to stand by them," Rudenko noted.

China’s primary strategic interest is to preserve "room for maneuver" by opening up as many opportunities as possible while assuming as few obligations as possible, China expert Nikolay Marchenko emphasized.

According to him, Beijing’s direct involvement in resolving the Ukrainian crisis will undoubtedly strengthen its position on the world stage vis-a-vis the collective West. At the same time, China will not supplant the US as the main mediator, the expert pointed out.

Recently, Moscow and Washington have begun taking a more pragmatic approach to their relationship, moving beyond statements and taking concrete steps toward one another. "We are currently focused on expanding this channel of interaction [between Russia and the US]. This will yield not merely a purely political effect in the form of statements, but a practical result that will impact economic cooperation between these two major geopolitical players and create a positive atmosphere conducive to a swift settlement of the conflict in Ukraine," Russian Foreign Ministry’s Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik emphasized.

It is possible that Moscow and Washington will head to the APEC summit in China as parties ready to compromise. However, the results of the US congressional elections could pose a serious obstacle. According to American studies expert Malek Dudakov, the Republicans risk losing their majority in both chambers of Congress. This would significantly limit Trump’s options on the international stage because of the threat of investigations and a potential impeachment process initiated by the Democrats.

 

Media: Russian government preparing for major reshuffles

The Russian government is set to undergo its most extensive personnel and structural reshuffle since its formation in May 2024. Two of the nine current deputy prime ministers will be replaced, and two more will be added to the Cabinet’s presidium. The most significant change is the restoration of Anton Siluanov’s authority as deputy prime minister. The Cabinet Secretariat will also move into the financial sphere: it is set to be headed by Siluanov’s first deputy Irina Okladnikova. Incumbent Transport Minister Andrey Nikitin and Primorsky Region Governor Oleg Kozhemyako will take up the posts of deputy prime ministers. These nominations highlight a particular focus on modernizing transport infrastructure and developing the Far East and the Arctic.

There are formal reasons for a cabinet reshuffle, such as the outgoing president handing over power to the president-elect, and informal reasons, when it is necessary to strengthen specific areas, Konstantin Kostin, head of the Civil Society Development Foundation, told Vedomosti. "In light of the current changes, these priorities include strengthening the financial sector and budgetary discipline, as well as regional development and the development of the transport sector in all its components," he emphasized.

These reshuffles allow the new State Duma to establish its role and demonstrate its power to confirm ministers, although there have been no instances in which the lower chamber of the Russian parliament has rejected a nominee, Mikhail Vinogradov, head of the "St. Petersburg Politics" Foundation, stressed. According to him, the position of deputy prime minister would suit Siluanov, given the growing uncertainty around financial policy as Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina’s term is set to end in 2027. Separating the roles of deputy prime minister and transport minister also makes sense given the distinctive characteristics of the aviation industry, Vinogradov added.

Over the past six years, Mikhail Mishustin’s government has transformed public administration, making it highly efficient and proving its ability to cope with crises and unexpected challenges, political analyst Dmitry Yelovsky told Izvestia. In his opinion, the current reshuffle only reinforces the correctness of the chosen course. Shifting priorities in the economy and politics simply call for new personnel. Yelovsky emphasized that the current system is functioning smoothly but needs a slight adjustment in direction, which is why different leaders are needed. At the same time, there are no complaints about the previous team.

According to expert Yevgeny Minchenko, such appointments are also driven by professional burnout that builds up over many years of intense work. At the same time, the groundwork laid in the Far East and in public administration will be maintained, the expert pointed out.

 

Izvestia: NATO actions in Black Sea threaten to heighten tensions with Russia

NATO is showing its readiness to further escalate tensions in the Black Sea region. Specifically, the alliance’s actions are increasing the risk of incidents. NATO is also stepping up its intelligence activities to provide data to Kiev and expanding its military infrastructure in coastal countries. Earlier, Bucharest proposed establishing a NATO military command in the region following incidents involving drones and attacks on merchant ships. Experts note that Moscow may respond by bolstering its own military capabilities.

The alliance’s interest in the Black Sea region is growing, even though Turkey has imposed restrictions since the start of the special military operation on the passage of military ships from non-regional countries into the waters, Russian Foreign Ministry's European Affairs Department Director Vladislav Maslennikov told Izvestia. According to him, instead of naval activity, NATO is concentrating on expanding infrastructure in the bloc’s coastal member states. "Reconnaissance activity by NATO allies has also increased in the region. Reconnaissance aircraft based in Romania’s Constanta are constantly monitoring the Black Sea. NATO servicemen are passing the data they collect on to the Kiev regime. Against this backdrop, the risk of incidents, including unintentional ones, is indeed increasing," the diplomat emphasized.

Shortly before that, Acting Romanian Defense Minister Radu Miruta proposed establishing a joint military command for NATO’s Black Sea coastal states. Bucharest is ready to head this new alliance body. According to media reports, Romania’s initiative and the situation in the region as a whole will be discussed at a meeting of the organization’s council scheduled for October 20. "Its decisions are expected to include measures to boost the coalition’s capabilities for defending air and maritime space against drones and other low-flying ‘threats.’ Thus, the alliance has no intention of reducing its activities in the region. Through its actions, it is signaling a readiness for further escalation of tensions in the Black Sea region," Maslennikov noted.

In turn, international relations expert Pavel Anisimov told Izvestia that Romania’s initiative involves creating a joint command with Bulgaria and Turkey, which have been part of a demining group alongside Bucharest for the past two years. The deployment of new NATO command bodies in Romania or Bulgaria should be viewed as the alliance’s effort to build a unified, continuous line of defense on its eastern flank, Mediterranean studies expert Tigran Meloyan stressed.

 

Vedomosti: Possibility of Trump’s support improving Netanyahu's chances at winning election

Nine days before Israel’s parliamentary elections, US President Donald Trump gave his "complete and total endorsement" to incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Early on October 18, on his Truth Social page, the US leader called Netanyahu "a great warrior prime minister" and an even greater "partner for peace," especially in the war against Iran. Until now, Trump had refrained from publicly backing any particular candidate in Israel’s parliamentary elections. A few minutes after the US president’s post, Netanyahu thanked him for his support and stressed that the Americans could only defeat Iran with his help and not that of any other Israeli candidate.

It is still difficult to gauge the extent of Trump’s influence on Israeli electoral processes, Alexey Yurk, a researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, told Vedomosti. On the one hand, Netanyahu is known in Israel as someone who can involve Trump in his foreign policy gambles. On the other hand, the separate US-Iran talks amid a joint war have severely damaged Trump’s approval ratings in Israel and weakened Netanyahu’s reputation as a politician who can secure Washington’s unconditional support for Israel's military gambles, the expert explained.

Trump’s support is unlikely to change Netanyahu’s chances of re-election, Lyudmila Samarskaya, another researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, emphasized. According to her, most Israelis view Trump’s statement as interference in the country’s domestic affairs. "The current Likud electorate traditionally votes for political forces that advocate for Israel’s security. There are few undecided voters left in the country, so the American leader’s verbal interventions will not have a significant impact. The election results are difficult to predict," the expert pointed out.

Netanyahu’s approval ratings have been hurt by Trump’s remarks about Israel’s dependence on the will of the US president, Yurk stressed. "In this context, the negative effect of Trump’s support for Netanyahu may even outweigh any potential political gains. Nevertheless, the results of the Knesset elections will most likely be influenced by domestic political issues," the political scientist noted.

According to Yurk, a victory by the Israeli opposition might lead to a return to less personality-driven, but more institutionalized and stable US-Israel relations.

 

Kommersant: Oil shipments via Northern Sea Route likely to more than double this navigation season

Peak freight rates and instability on southern routes have increased the appeal of the Northern Sea Route as an export corridor for Russian oil. Although the summer-fall navigation season is not yet over, according to media reports, 50% more oil has already been transported than during the previous season. By the end of the season, shipments could exceed 25-30 million barrels, more than doubling last season's volume. However, ice conditions and the need for escort vessels could significantly affect voyage duration and cost.

Oil exports via the Northern Sea Route during this navigation season have exceeded last year’s total by nearly 50%, reaching 20 million barrels (2.75 million metric tons) compared to 13 million barrels for the entire previous navigation season, Reuters reported, citing trading data. By the end of the season, the volume of shipments could grow by another five to ten million barrels (0.69-1.37 million metric tons). According to estimates by the Center for High North Logistics (CHNL), as of September 30, 28 tankers with a total deadweight of 3.14 million metric tons had passed through the Northern Sea Route, including 22 tankers with 2.46 million metric tons heading east and six tankers carrying 682,000 metric tons heading west.

Price Index Center Director Roman Sokolov told Kommersant that amid a global rise in ocean freight rates, the Northern Sea Route has gained a significant competitive advantage: its shorter length has made it possible to reduce operating costs and cut fleet charter periods for charterers. "Although optimal ice conditions on the Northern Sea Route did not return until late August, the extended period of open water helped foster healthy competition in the oil logistics market this summer and kept price increases on traditional routes in check," he noted. "Given that a number of vessels have not yet completed their voyages, the final results of the navigation season may turn out to be even higher," the expert pointed out.

Meanwhile, Dmitry Kasatkin, managing partner at Kasatkin Consulting, noted that the Northern Sea Route is currently primarily an export channel for seasonal oil shipments to China. "The growing interest in it is driven by economics: the northern route shortens the transport distances, and high freight rates and risks on southern routes amplify this advantage. When freight rates are high, reducing voyage time becomes particularly valuable, as it allows for an increase in the number of voyages," the expert said.

Kasatkin identified the availability of vessels with the required ice class, variable ice conditions, and the cost of ice escort services as the main constraints on the growth of shipments via the Northern Sea Route. "Waiting for an escort and reduced speed can eat into a significant portion of the gains from the shorter distance," he stressed. "Therefore, sustainable growth requires expanding the fleet and the ability to operate more economically viable voyages," the expert emphasized. According to him, extending the season should also be based on the capabilities of specific vessels and the actual conditions along the route.

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