MOSCOW, October 19. /TASS/. US leader Donald Trump is eager to bring Kiev back to the negotiating table with Moscow, as trade unions and yellow vests take part in nationwide protests in France. Meanwhile, the United States could draw European businesses to joint projects with Russia. These stories topped Monday's newspaper headlines in Russia.

 

Izvestia: Trump seeks to bring Kiev back to negotiating table with Russia

US President Donald Trump opted not to use the bill on "sanctions from hell" against Russia to avoid disrupting a peaceful settlement: a senior Russian senator told Izvestia this step could be seen as a return to common sense. At the same time, the Western press is increasingly discussing a new US peace plan, which envisages the resumption of Russian gas purchases by European countries. Meanwhile, the Russian Army completely cleared pockets of encirclement near Volchansk and Dobropolye in the special military operation zone. These two major setbacks for the Ukrainian armed forces may increase pressure on Vladimir Zelensky both from Washington and within Ukraine itself.

The successful completion of this operation enabled Russian forces to significantly expand the security zone for the Belgorod Region and push the threat farther from the Russian border, military expert Viktor Litovkin told Izvestia.

The elimination of the pockets of encirclement will also free up a considerable number of Russian assault units. They will soon be redeployed to other sectors of the front line, increasing pressure on the enemy and accelerating the advance of Russian troops, another military expert, Alexey Leonkov, told Izvestia.

The Ukrainian defeats will serve as a strong argument for the White House to step up pressure on Kiev. The latest changes on the battlefield further confirm the US administration’s stance that Ukraine has no strong trump cards left. Trump told Newsmax television in an interview that Ukraine, among other things, is at a significant disadvantage in terms of manpower compared to Russia. In this situation, Washington will push more forcefully for the Ukrainian leadership to show greater flexibility and a greater willingness to compromise, Andrey Kortunov, a member of the Valdai Discussion Club, argued.

In addition, the elimination of the pockets of encirclement may worsen the political situation in Ukraine, as military failures will lead to more criticism of Zelensky from the opposition and those who support peace with Russia. He may also face pressure to hold a presidential election, a scenario he has persistently rejected. It is worth recalling that Zelensky’s term as president expired in 2024.

In these circumstances, Zelensky will step up his demands for additional financial and military assistance from the EU. However, European countries’ capabilities have been severely depleted. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, for example, said after last week’s EU summit that the bloc had not made any specific decisions on support for Kiev. Meanwhile, Berlin itself has openly stated that Germany has exhausted its domestic reserves of new air defense systems to supply Ukraine.

 

Vedomosti: Trade unions, yellow vests join nationwide protests in France

On October 17, nationwide mass protests accompanied by widespread unrest and looting swept France. The unrest began several weeks ago with student-led protests. Approximately 800,000 people, mostly students, trade union members, and supporters of the Yellow Vests movement, took part in the October 17 protests, according to the General Confederation of Labour (CGT). The Ministry of the Interior put the number of protesters at 550,000, including 110,000 in Paris, with 1,200 people detained. Unrest broke out in Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Bordeaux, and other major cities. Young people looted numerous retail outlets and various public and private facilities. In Limoges, rioters set fire to the town hall. Police have been using stun grenades, tear gas, and water cannons to disperse the demonstrators.

On Saturday, protests also spread to neighboring European countries as hundreds of youths, inspired by French protests, held rallies in Brussels to protest against the rising cost of university education. Tens of thousands of Portuguese people took to the streets in Lisbon to express their discontent with a doubling of housing prices since 2017. Similar marches that soon escalated into clashes with police took place in Italy’s Milan and Bologna. Clashes between students and police were reported in Albania too.

The protests in France could benefit both far-right politicians, including the National Rally and Marine Le Pen, the front-runner in the election campaign, and the ultra-left camp, represented by another presidential candidate, Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of La France Insoumise (LFI), Alexey Chikhachev, an associate professor in the European Studies Department at St. Petersburg State University, told Vedomosti. On the one hand, right-wing politicians adopted a winning stance by condemning the rioting. On the other hand, Melenchon could theoretically leverage the situation to garner support from various minority groups and mostly left-leaning education employees, the political analyst noted. The migration issue could also work in favor of the far-right, Chikhachev observed. "Conversely, the ruling center-right parties are losing ground against this backdrop. Edouard Philippe, seen as a potential successor to [French leader Emmanuel] Macron in the upcoming 2027 presidential election, can currently count on the votes of about 10-12% of the electorate only," he argued.

Macron and his allies, who demonstrated an absolute inability to ensure the security of citizens and property, have been clearly weakened by the political unrest, Arnaud Dubien, director of the Franco-Russian Observatory think tank, agreed. Right-wing politicians, including Le Pen and Eric Zemmour, leader of the political party Reconquete (Reconquest), have earned additional brownie points against this backdrop, he maintained.

According to Chikhachev, the main political outcome of the latest protests will be increased attention to education-related issues within the political platforms of both the ruling forces and the opposition. "The CGT trade union is actually partially coordinating its activities with Melenchon. In France, trade unions have traditionally served as a link between protesters and political leaders," the expert said.

The CGT trade union’s ability to directly influence the country’s political processes is limited, Dubien argued. However, he continued, most French people are in a state of shock, including because of a fire at the town hall in Limoges, a city otherwise known for being very quiet. "All this can be called a manifestation of the death throes of 'Macronism.' Macron will leave office no earlier than in seven months. In the meantime, much could still happen in France, including a recurrence of major protests and unrest," Dubien warned.

 

Izvestia: US could draw European businesses into joint projects with Russia

The United States could attract European capital to joint projects with Russia, Robert Agee, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia, told Izvestia. Restarting Nord Streams could be one of these projects in principle. According to some data, US investors are interested in such a prospect. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party stressed that Washington's participation would provide reliable guarantees of European energy security and protect infrastructure from further acts of sabotage. However, even amid mutual business interest, full-fledged cooperation is hampered by the EU’s tough sanctions policy, although this could change as the opposition strengthens.

European investors can join projects if these steps are approved by EU governments, Mikhail Kucherov, a political analyst, told Izvestia. However, there is now a consensus to reject Russian energy among the elites in the leading countries, including Germany, France, and Britain as a key partner of the EU.

Even the lobbying capabilities of German businesses, for example, are not strong enough to pressure political elites on sanctions, as this has been a pan-European policy rather than a purely German one, Maria Khorolskaya, a researcher at the World Economy and International Relations Institute under the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasized. In any case, all this could probably materialize after the Ukraine conflict is resolved, she concluded.

Meanwhile, European countries led by Germany have been focused exclusively on protecting Ukraine’s interests. "Continued military confrontation with Russia provides them with a convenient scapegoat to blame for the collapse of their own economies, a collapse that essentially has little to do with Russia and to a greater extent stems from their own policy in the fields of energy, migration and industry," former MEP Gunnar Beck told Izvestia.

Voters who back parties that are ready to restore ties with Moscow will be businesses’ key allies in this effort, Kucherov argued. Beck also stressed that Europe needs major political changes, such as the rise to power of right-wing politicians in France or Germany.

 

Kommersant: Russian stocks climb to three-month high after Trump moves to suspend `sanctions from hell’ bill

Reports about Trump’s move to suspend the `sanctions from hell’ on Russia sent the MOEX Russia Index close to 2,450 points. Investors expect that the two sides will be able to reach a diesel supply deal that could pave the way for further sanctions relief and a new era of economic cooperation. However, further stock market gains are constrained by the lack of results from the previous round of talks between Moscow and Washington, while the market will need confirmation of shipment volumes and no signs of sharp escalation, including from the EU.

Gazprom and Novatek were among the leaders, with a two-day gain of 2% taking their shares to new highs since June in the wake of Trump’s waiver announcement. "Investors expect that new agreements with the United States and even more sanctions relief may follow the diesel deal," Sergey Suverov, an investment strategist at Aricapital, told Kommersant. According to him, the previous talks between Moscow and Washington did not yield any material results, prompting Washington to increase sanctions pressure on Russia. Thus, last fall, the White House announced sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft and blacklisted 30 Russian partners in China, India, Turkey, and the UAE.

The market will need confirmation of actual Russian diesel supplies to the global market and possibly an extension of the relevant contracts, noted Oleg Abelev, head of analytics at the Ricom Trust investment company. If positive news is followed by a sharp escalation, including from the EU, investor optimism will also fade, AVI Capital argued. "The fact that the document includes a potential suspension clause raises concern," Abelev said.

Investors will also take into account the CBR Board’s upcoming decision on October 23 regarding the trajectory of the key rate. According to Alfa-Bank analysts, the interest rate may remain unchanged at 14% until the end of the year. "If the regulator makes any harsh statements following the rate meeting, the [stock] index could fall back to the levels seen earlier this month," AVI Capital warned.

 

Kommersant: Russian metallurgical coal exports to India may rise to 52 mln tons by 2030

Russian metallurgical coal exports could increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.8% through 2030, reaching 52 million metric tons, according to a report from NEFT Research. Analysts estimate that this growth rate may exceed the rates for Australia (0.4%) or Canada (0.7%), but remain lower than those for Mongolia (1%) or the United States (0.9%). In 2025, Russia exported 50 million metric tons of metallurgical coal, experts say.

According to the NEFT Research report, Russian coking coal exporters may strengthen their position as key beneficiaries of the expected rise in demand in India and Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam.

Dmitry Baikov, director for corporate ratings at the National Credit Ratings agency, also sees significant potential for Russian exports to India, where demand for coking coal could rise by more than one-third in the next five years. Russia has overtaken Indonesia and the United States in this market as the second-largest supplier after Australia. In certain months of this year, Russian coking coal supplies to India saw multiple-fold growth, and the annual figure could exceed last year’s 8 million metric tons, Baikov told Kommersant.

Akhmed Aliev, a leading analyst at T-Investments, stressed that the global coal industry has been severely underfunded for environmental reasons, leading to declining output even as demand has remained stable. A structural shortage of quality coal in Asia could drive a further 20% to 30% increase in prices for premium-grade metallurgical coal across Asia, Baikov predicts. The expert sees risks of a correction in the winter of 2026 and spring of 2027, when supply from Australia recovers, although he does not expect prices to plunge. The current potential for Russian coal exports is constrained by the throughput capacity of southern ports rather than by coal prices or availability, he explained.

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