MOSCOW, October 5. /TASS/. The latest threats from Vladimir Zelensky could provoke a tougher response from Russia, while the White House appoints an AI czar. Meanwhile, Greece and Germany call for an audit of assistance to Ukraine. These stories topped Monday's newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: Zelensky’s decisions could doom Ukraine to tougher response from Russia

The intensified Russian attacks on Ukraine were a direct result of recent statements from Vladimir Zelensky and his actions, Russian authorities explained. In particular, the Kiev regime has announced plans to attack Russian refineries again and plans to acquire the FP-9 missile, which is capable of reaching Moscow. In response, the Russian Armed Forces will increase strikes targeting "military and military-industrial facilities, as well as related infrastructure in Kiev and other Ukrainian regions," the Russian Defense Ministry warned. The Russian Foreign Ministry said the goal would be to deprive Zelensky of the ability to escalate the conflict or harm the Russian economy. Meanwhile, the United States has taken a wait-and-see approach before the congressional elections.

Since the EU itself is unable to meet all Kiev's demands for increased financial assistance, the issue of seizing frozen Russian assets is being raised once again, Fernand Kartheiser, a member of the European Parliament from Luxembourg, told Izvestia. "All this indicates that the EU's policy regarding Ukraine is untenable even in the medium term, for Ukraine is a money pit. Voters in EU countries will never agree to further cuts in spending on social needs and other important budget items in order to continue to channel funds into this `black hole’ - Ukraine," the MEP said.

Disagreement about the forms, sequence and pace of support for Ukraine persists in Europe. A number of EU countries, for example, have refused to expedite the allocation of funds from a €90 billion loan for Kiev. This increases the likelihood of individual countries acting through bilateral agreements with Kiev, said Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor at the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO University. Apart from Germany, Nordic countries, primarily Sweden and France, may take a more proactive position. The latest escalation by Kiev is also meant to demonstrate that Russia is also suffering losses from the conflict, Loshkarev emphasized. This will probably allow Ukraine to demonstrate some fragmented progress in its attempts to delay peace. Zelensky rather views the idea of launching talks as an undesirable scenario that will again raise questions about the prospects of his tenure as president, the political scientist noted, and his term of office expired back in May 2024.

Zelensky’s calls to escalate the conflict further pose a direct security threat to which Moscow could respond with tough and exhausting military-technical measures, experts interviewed by Izvestia argued. According to them, today, Russia has a major arsenal of high-precision weapons enabling it to immediately increase the intensity and pace of combined attacks on key enemy targets.

Russia’s retaliatory measures are long-term and systemic, military expert Vasily Dandykin emphasized, with the list of targets also expanding. The West and Kiev should not expect to protract the conflict for another 18 to 24 months, for their defense capacities are designed for a much shorter period, so experts expect radical changes on the front line within the next few months already.

 

Kommersant: White House installs new authority to mitigate AI risks

US President Donald Trump has decided to appoint National Intelligence chief Jay Clayton as AI czar. A Clayton-led working group will have to present a report on the risks and potential of advanced AI technology within the next 120 days and recommendations to the government regarding potential regulation in this sphere. Russian President Vladimir Putin last week called imposing limits on the use of AI technology in security an existential issue facing humanity. However, neither the US nor Russia is currently ready to place major limits on their AI potential in defense.

Artificial Intelligence was among the key topics discussed at a recent summit between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Washington. The two leaders agreed to launch a regular interdepartmental dialogue on AI, including a separate communication channel for emergency discussions of major incidents related to the uncontrollable behavior of AI systems. However, no restrictions on the development of AI technology were discussed as there is fierce competition between the US and China in this sphere, and neither of them intends to hold its potential in check for the time being.

However, neither the US nor Russia is seemingly ready for outside-imposed restrictions. The Washington Post reported recently, citing sources, that the two countries’ delegations succeeded in having the requirement that AI-based systems must operate predictably and reliably removed from a document currently being drafted as they joined efforts at a UN debate. The clause made the consideration of ethical factors in using lethal autonomous systems and the stipulation requiring human verification of military targets selected by AI algorithms prior to a strike mandatory.

Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a US-based think tank, who took part in the latest meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, called the approaches of both Washington and Moscow quite logical in an interview with Kommersant. The US decision to refrain from imposing restrictions on AI stems from the fact that it views AI as a sphere of advantage over China, she explained. It is reluctant to restrict itself in order to prevent China from catching up with it, she noted. Meanwhile, Russia is facing different threats, mostly amid the continued Ukraine conflict and rearmament in Europe. In both cases, the benefits of using AI can help offset the disadvantages faced by Russia, the expert added. Against this backdrop, Kavanagh said, it is logical that both the US and Russia are seeking to avoid committing themselves to restricting what they view as their areas of advantage.

As Kommersant reported earlier, the only actual restriction lately agreed by P5 or the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, namely, Russia, the US, China, France and Britain, is that the decision to use nuclear weapons amid the widespread adoption of AI technology, including in the military and military-nuclear sphere, will always be made by humans. Even though the P5 members have not issued joint statements on this matter, they have expressed individual views on the subject.

 

Izvestia: Greece, Germany demand audit for assistance to Ukraine

The opposition in Germany and Greece is calling for an audit of how the financial and military aid delivered to Kiev has been used, Izvestia has learned. According to them, the money ends up in the pockets of Ukrainian officials, while the weapons are resold to other countries. Berlin has been a main donor, and Greece has Patriot interceptor missiles needed by the Ukrainian army.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrived in Kiev on an unannounced visit with a pledge of another €1.3 billion in support. Experts believe that due to corruption scandals in Kiev, control over the use of European funding will be tightened further.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party could establish committees at the next Bundestag to investigate the use of financial and military aid transferred to Ukraine, Steffen Kotre, a member of the German parliament from AfD, told Izvestia. "It is well known that money from Germany and other countries ends up in the pockets of corrupt Ukrainian politicians. It is also known that weapons intended for Ukraine have surfaced in Serbia and other countries. As soon as the AfD enters the new Bundestag with 25% support or more, investigative committees will surely be established that will deal with these issues," Kotre announced.

In Greece, the Greek Solution parliamentary faction made a similar demand to audit weapons supplies to Kiev, its leader Kyriakos Velopoulos told Izvestia. "Any military supply to Ukraine is tantamount to high treason. <...> We will give every bullet sent to Zelensky a check, holding everyone who has harmed the Greek economy, Greece’s national interests or Greek defense capabilities responsible," he warned.

According to Yegor Sergeyev, a senior researcher at the Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), a German audit will be more dangerous for Kiev. Berlin is not only one of its main donors, but it can also influence broader EU decisions. Control over the use of financial aid could be somewhat tightened, he said. However, the financial flow from Europe will not stop completely as the EU needs Ukraine mostly as a political instrument, he argued.

European countries are increasingly discussing audits of the use of resources supplied to Kiev even as this idea has not materialized anywhere yet. This would require political changes that may happen very soon, with a parliamentary election expected in Greece next year as France will elect a new president, while the German parliament could possibly be dissolved ahead of time.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: India, Pakistan balancing on the brink of war

There is a dangerous tension in relations between India and Pakistan. Two people were killed near the Bedian strategic border sector. India blamed the incident on Pakistani saboteurs or Islamist terrorists, while Pakistan claimed that locals who had lost their way there were to blame. The incident took place in an area disputed by the two countries over the use of the Indus River. However, there is no information on whether the October 2 shooting was somehow related to that dispute.

Islamabad and New Delhi again accused each other of an armed provocation as envoys were summoned to the two countries’ foreign ministries. Pakistan claimed that Indian border guards had opened fire on three unarmed Pakistani civilians, killing two of them and injuring one. India rejected these accusations as biased and groundless. The Indian Foreign Ministry told the Pakistani charge d’affaires that the Pakistani side had continued to send terrorists and drug traffickers across the border.

On the face of it, India has an advantage over its long-time opponent: it has a larger Army, and Pakistan is embroiled in a conflict with Afghanistan. The actual situation is more complicated. India, which has traditionally pursued the policy of non-alignment, has no close military allies. True, it is a member of QUAD, a US-led alliance with Japan and Australia, but the United States has shown no desire to get involved in the dispute between India and Pakistan.

Meanwhile, Pakistan, for one, has a close military partner, if not a true ally - China, formally a neutral party. However, Beijing has actually provided military assistance to Pakistan, Alexander Lukin, academic director of the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia at the Russian Academy of Science, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "As usual, China says disputes should be resolved in line with UN decisions. And it actually supports Pakistan which has signed a strategic partnership with China. The two countries maintain broad contacts, including military ones. China has established an `economic corridor’ toward the Indian Ocean on Pakistani soil. This corridor runs through a Pakistani-controlled area of Kashmir. However, India considers the whole of Kashmir to be its part. Consequently, the territorial conflict is in effect trilateral, given China controls an area in Kashmir under the 1963 agreement with Pakistan regarding border demarcation. Since India regards all of Kashmir as its own land, it does not recognize this agreement between Pakistan and China. In short, while China is formally neutral, in reality, it sides with Pakistan," Lukin concluded.

 

Vedomosti: Russian coal prices at Baltic ports reach three-year high

In September, export prices of Russian coal at Baltic ports rose to a more than three-year high, according to data from PBS Index, seen by Vedomosti. On September 25, Free-on-Board (FOB) prices of thermal coal with a calorific value of 6,000 kcal/kg at Baltic ports climbed to $89/metric ton. The last time a higher price was recorded was in April 2023. The prices increased by 13% last month, or were up 31% from January.

The rise in export prices is driven by the increased cost of coal on the global market, high demand in Turkey, and rising dry-bulk freight rates resulting from the reorientation of shipments from terminals in the country's south to Baltic ports, a PBS Index representative explained to Vedomosti.

Active purchases by China and the risk of reduced exports from Indonesia are also driving up the export price of Russian coal, said Yegor Vershinin, an analyst at the Finam financial group. Another factor behind the rise is the escalating political crisis in the Middle East, which has affected global energy prices, Boris Krasnozhenov, Head of Investment and Sector Analysis at Alfa-Bank, added.

Rising gas prices globally will help sustain demand for coal at least until the end of this year, therefore Russian fuel export prices will continue to increase, Alexander Kotov, a partner in consulting at NEFT Research, argued. According to him, thermal coal prices at Baltic ports will rise to $100/metric ton, given favorable market conditions.

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