MOSCOW, September 22. /TASS/. The opening UN General Assembly High-level Week 2026 may help revive Ukraine talks, and the United States is considering sweeping sanctions against the International Criminal Court. Meanwhile, the opposition Alternative for Germany party is planning to call for an early parliamentary vote in Germany. These stories topped Tuesday's newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: UNGA High-level week to attempt and reboot talks on Ukraine, Iran

On September 22, the UN General Assembly High-level Week 2026 alongside marathon negotiations commence in New York. The heads of state and their representatives will primarily focus on resolving the crises in the Middle East and Ukraine. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is planning to hold meetings with US President Donald Trump, Gulf leaders, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Izvestia has learned.

The upcoming talks between Russia’s top diplomat Lavrov and his US counterpart, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are among the most anticipated events. The meeting will help clarify if not the contours of future peace agreements, then at least Washington's stance, especially ahead of potential contacts between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine. So far, there has been no progress, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, while commenting on the prospects for the Ukrainian settlement and the possible resumption of trilateral talks.

The main issue of the dialogue is that the American side does not offer Russia any specifics on the Ukrainian track, Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Russian Presidential Council for Interethnic Relations, told Izvestia.

According to him, even potential criticism from Rubio of Ukraine's position at the UNGA session would not be a radical shift. The US is seeking at least a declarative or framework truce deal to present it as its own foreign policy success in the run-up to congressional elections. According to the expert, a proposal from Washington to at least partially lift anti-Russian sanctions and recognize Russia’s sovereignty over its new regions might bring a trilateral meeting closer.

Alongside Russia-US contacts, other meetings will also occur. Vladimir Zelensky will attempt to coordinate efforts to enhance Ukrainian air defenses with Trump and French leader Emmanuel Macron on the sidelines of the UNGA session.

The French president also has something to discuss with his US counterpart. Paris fears the US might monopolize the talks and sideline the EU. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin directly described Brussels as a key obstacle to peace, stating EU leaders are seeking to join the talks only to disrupt the balance for Kiev. Bezpalko dismissed any attempts by Brussels to interfere as futile unless Europe proposes at least some options for resolving the conflict.

However, meetings on the sidelines of the UNGA session may fail to bring the parties closer to any resolution at all, Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Center for Security Studies, argued. A diplomatic breakthrough requires a significant advance on the battlefield that will give one of the sides a clear advantage. Even as the Russian Army has regularly liberated localities, its pace has not yet compelled Kiev to request peace. Ukraine still controls part of the territories, and its gradual loss of positions may last for several years, Blokhin maintained.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Russian expert comments on potential US sanctions against ICC

The US plan to impose sweeping financial sanctions against the International Criminal Court (ICC) reported by The Wall Street Journal on Sunday may significantly complicate matters for this judicial body. However, they cannot lead to its closure, at least as long as the ICC enjoys the support of major European countries, Anatoly Kapustin, who heads the Center for International Law and Comparative Legal Studies at the Institute of Legislation and Comparative Law under the Russian government, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta in an interview.

The United States is not a party to the Rome Statute, which gives ICC judges and prosecutors privileges and immunity in ICC signatory states. The document does not have any legal force in the US, so Washington is free to impose any restrictions on the Court or at least those that affect mechanisms controlled by the Americans, Kapustin maintained.

The ICC has already felt the effect from overcompliance as companies are scaling back cooperation with it for fear of sanctions. ProcoliX, a Dutch cloud and email hosting provider, has decided to stop accepting new orders from the ICC, fearing US restrictions, sources told TASS.

Kapustin views the threat of secondary US sanctions as quite real for businesses seeking to limit their cooperation with the ICC. And the Court will need to look for ways to respond to these threats, including the possibility of moving its headquarters in The Netherlands to another jurisdiction.

Over the past few years, an increasing number of ICC signatories have either withdrawn from this organization or are at least considering such an option. This shows how countries, primarily in the Global South, treat the ICC. However, even as such steps do undermine the credibility of this tribunal, they cannot bring about its closure for it is the brainchild of major Western European countries, such as Germany, France, and Britain, the expert explained. And it is these countries that will have to change their policies for the ICC to cease its operations, he concluded.

 

Izvestia: AfD may push for early parliamentary election in Germany

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party intends to raise the issue of an early parliamentary election in the Bundestag, Rainer Rothfuss, an AfD parliamentarian, told Izvestia. The reason was the outcome of voting in the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Berlin and Saxony-Anhalt, where the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, recorded its worst results in Germany’s history. Currently, 28% of voters are ready to vote for the AfD, while the CDU enjoys a nationwide support rating of roughly 19%.

The poor election results for the ruling CDU party in the three German state elections may trigger a change in power in Germany. "Under the current Red and Black government (a CDU/CSU and SPD coalition), Germany has found itself in a dangerous impasse affecting not only fiscal policy, characterized by an astronomical €203 billion in new borrowings, but also the course in the energy sector, the economy, and, in particular, a hostile policy toward Russia," Rothfuss said.

Holding an early election would serve the vital interests of citizens as the new composition of parliament should reflect the fundamental changes in public sentiment shown in opinion polls. According to them, about 28% of the electorate are ready to vote for the AfD, making it the most popular political force in the country. It is followed by the CDU/CSU bloc with a support rating of about 19%. Only approximately 14% of citizens approve of the performance of Merz who himself has a record low personal rating, according to sociologists from INSA.

"I believe that the current chancellor can no longer remain in power for long and hopefully Germany will hold an early election as the country’s citizens are suffering from the latest economic developments and the policy course pursued by the federal government," Markus Frohnmaier, a member of the German Bundestag and deputy leader of the AfD parliamentary faction, told Izvestia.

The results of the regional elections have had quite a negative impact on Merz’s position, Maria Khorolskaya, a researcher at the World Economy and International Relations Institute under the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted. According to her, discontent has intensified in regional offices of his party, especially in eastern Germany, as Merz’s fellow CDU members view him as a toxic personality that stands in the way of attracting new electorate. Nevertheless, Merz should not be expected to resign for now for much will depend on the outcome of landtag elections in western German states of Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia slated for April 2027, she added.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Saudi Arabia halts oil supplies to Europe, India

Saudi Arabia has cut oil shipments to Europe and India. The country’s state-controlled oil giant, Saudi Aramco, has told its European customers they will receive no Saudi crude in October. Even as no such announcement regarding India was made, The Economic Times, India’s leading business daily, reported that Saudi Aramco has stopped crude oil supplies to Indian refineries. Unless exports are resumed soon, this will worsen fuel shortages in Europe.

Overall, the global market may lose between 2.5 million and 6 million bpd of Saudi oil and petroleum. So far this year, Saudi crude has accounted for 9% of Indian oil imports and around 6.5% of European purchases.

Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Russian Financial University, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that approximately 577,000 bpd of supplies to Europe will be halted, with basically no major alternative supply routes available.

However, Viktoria Trifonova, a senior analyst at the Yakov and Partners think tank, said that attempts to substitute Saudi crude are being made anyway. Poland’s Orlen has purchased additional North Sea oil volumes and it is also considering supplies from the United States, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Guyana.

Given the low fuel inventories in Europe, the region may face a local fuel crisis at gas stations and airports as early as October-November, while petroleum production will be least affected, Andrianov predicts.

According to Maxim Malkov, a partner and the head of the Oil and Gas Practice at Kept, diesel and jet fuel shortages that have persisted for months and are exacerbated by the loss of Saudi crude for European oil refineries, rather than a crude deficit, may pose the largest risk to markets. Unless Saudi Aramco restarts the East-West pipeline in the next six weeks, as scheduled, an even more challenging fall and winter may await the European fuel market, he warned.

 

Kommersant: Bitcoin going north on news about new regulation for US market

Bitcoin has risen to a new eight-month high of above $86,000 amid investor optimism in the wake of statements from US regulators that they could establish their own regulation for the cryptocurrency market without the Clarity Act. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reported a major inflow, and the mass closing of short positions only drove token prices higher. If the comeback of large capital to ETFs continues, and positive signals from US agencies remain in place, Bitcoin may soar to $90,000, analysts say.

Against this backdrop, investors significantly boosted their Bitcoin ETF purchases: according to CoinMarketCap, on September 17-18, ETFs attracted a total of around $600 million in investments, while an outflow of more than $1 billion was recorded in the previous week.

Bitcoin purchases by large institutional investors demonstrated to the market that there is still demand for the cryptocurrency and that "big capital is ready to increase its Bitcoin positions again," Guzel Protsenko, CEO of Alfa-Forex, told Kommersant.

If big capital returns and US agencies send more positive signals, Bitcoin will continue to rise, analysts say. If the price stays above $85,000, a rise to $90,000 may happen soon, Vladimir Zernov, a financial analyst at Bitbanker, argued.

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