MOSCOW, September 11. /TASS/. Ukraine is seeking donors outside the EU in a bid to secure unimpeded military supplies; a Houthi counterattack in Yemen deprived Saudi Arabia's allies of an important port not far from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait; and Europe must prepare to see gas prices exceeding $1,000 for a long time. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: Ukraine seeking donors outside EU

Europe lacks the funds and weapons to meet Ukraine’s endless demands. Earlier, Vladimir Zelensky requested an additional $27 billion and interceptor missiles for air defense systems from the EU. In search of new aid packages, he traveled to Canada, which is among Ukraine’s main sponsors. However, experts note that Ottawa’s budget has no reserves to increase funding for Kiev. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s air defense capabilities are diminishing, worsening the situation for the Ukrainian armed forces on the battlefield.

"Zelensky is making the rounds among key Western partners to plead for additional financial allocations and arms deliveries in order to continue large-scale, inhumane terrorist acts like those carried out <…> on the evening of September 9 in the city of Sochi, where a beach was attacked and people were injured," Grigory Karasin, chairman of the Russian Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia.

Canada is among the top ten donors to Ukraine. According to publicly available data, since 2022, Ottawa has allocated more than $16.5 billion to Kiev, of which approximately $6.2 billion went toward military support. However, Canada's aid to Ukraine is still significantly less than that of Germany or the UK. The list of goods supplied by Ottawa to the Kiev regime is also not that extensive, Yevgeny Khoroshilov, head of the economic research department at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted.

The current Canadian government led by Mark Carney has already significantly increased military aid to Ukraine over the past year and a half. Therefore, Ottawa’s budget has no reserves for further increases in funding for Kiev, Dmitry Volodin, a leading researcher at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said. The expert pointed out that Ottawa’s decision on further support will be influenced by the course of hostilities and the US position. Currently, Canada and the US are engaged in a trade war, and because of this, Ottawa is forced to spend enormous resources to save its own budget, which could reduce the amount of aid to Kiev.

Meanwhile, experts emphasize that Ukraine’s air defense is struggling to repel Russian strikes. Military expert Viktor Litovkin noted that Western anti-aircraft missile systems, including the Patriot and the German IRIS-T, are experiencing a severe shortage of interceptor missiles, which is affecting combat operations along the line of engagement. New shipments of anti-missile systems from Europe will not significantly affect the Kiev regime’s ability to defend its airspace.

 

Vedomosti: Houthi counterattack in Yemen deprives Saudi Arabia's allies of important port

As hostilities escalated in Yemen, the Houthis of the rebel Ansar Allah movement launched a counterattack and routed Saudi-backed forces of the Presidential Leadership Council near the Red Sea port of Mokha, 80 kilometers from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint for global trade, Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi political bureau, reported.·According to him, Houthi opponents, including Saudi servicemen and their Yemeni allies, whom the Houthis refer to as Saudi mercenaries, are surrendering en masse in Mokha and elsewhere. Even Yemen’s pro-Saudi government has acknowledged the capture of the port of Mokha.

The Houthis' presence in Mokha allows them to strengthen their control over shipping in the southern Red Sea, through which 12% of global trade, 30% of container shipments, and 9% of maritime oil traffic passes, Yury Lyamin, a senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told Vedomosti. Amid developments in Yemen, it is no coincidence that the price of Brent crude oil futures surpassed $100 per barrel on September 10 due to the escalation in the Persian Gulf and reached $105.3 per barrel, up 4% over the past 24 hours, according to trading data from the London-based ICE exchange. At the same time, the military significance of the port of Mokha lies in the fact that it served as a key supply point for pro-Saudi forces both along the coast and in the city of Ta·izz, which is under partial Houthi control, Lyamin noted: "The situation for pro-Saudi forces there has become more complicated."

In the days leading up to the latest escalation of tensions, it was reported that Saudi Arabia, through Pakistan, had demanded that Iran "rein in" its allies. Tehran allegedly responded that it had no control over the Houthis. The Saudis then told the Pakistanis that they would like their allies to play a more active role in their defense. Saudi Arabia's diplomatic efforts were prompted by Houthi strikes on the kingdom's oil refineries, airports, and air bases. In retaliation, Saudi proxies launched an offensive that ended in failure.

Meanwhile, Iran believes normalization is possible if the Saudis and the Houthis reconcile, since the war in Yemen, which began with the intervention of the Riyadh-led coalition in 2015, did not end with a peace agreement due to pressure from the Americans, Sergey Serebrov, a senior researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Oriental Studies Institute at the Russian Academy of Sciences, stressed. The Houthis are not satisfied with this. According to Ansar Allah, Riyadh is stalling for the sake of war instead of implementing the 2023 roadmap for a settlement agreed upon by the parties, which includes meeting Houthi demands to lift the blockade on their territory, provide reconstruction aid, and pay compensation. "It is likely that after the escalation in Yemen, both sides will claim victory, but ultimately they will return to the roadmap," Serebrov emphasized.

 

Izvestia: Fuel prices in Europe may remain at $1,000 mark for a long time

Gas prices in Europe, which exceeded $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters during trading on September 10, may remain at this level for a long time, experts say. Amid a cold snap and the ongoing threat of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, traders are rushing to replenish fuel stocks ahead of winter. Currently, gas storage facilities in the EU are about 67% full, compared with 79.48% a year earlier, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. The high cost of natural gas will also push up electricity prices, experts add.

Gas prices are likely to remain above $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters in the near future, Dmitry Skryabin, portfolio manager at Alfa-Capital Asset Management, told Izvestia. He noted that future price trends depend almost entirely on the geopolitical situation. Given the current developments, it is unlikely that prices will normalize quickly. If the free movement of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume by November, European gas prices could settle above $900 per 1,000 cubic meters for a long time, Alexey Belogoryev, director of research and development at the Institute for Energy and Finance, pointed out.

Two major gas suppliers, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, are currently effectively "locked in" in the Persian Gulf. Doha has recently been shipping about 11% of its usual volume, while Abu Dhabi has increased its shipping volume to 60% by taking the risky approach of moving tankers through the Strait of Hormuz without navigation, Belogoryev stressed. Currently, these countries are producing more natural gas than they can export due to the risks of transporting it through the strait. At the same time, Europe is largely responsible for the September price surge, as it tries to increase gas injections into underground storage facilities ahead of winter, the expert emphasized.

First and foremost, the current high cost of gas will impact the future revenue of European gas companies. Their business model involves purchasing fuel in the summer at a lower price and selling it to energy companies and other consumers in the winter when demand and prices are higher, Belogoryev pointed out. Now, however, they are forced to build up reserves at high prices, so there is a risk of losses during the winter if global prices fall by then. This could happen if the conflict between Iran and the US stabilizes and supplies through the Strait of Hormuz resume.

Meanwhile, independent energy expert Kirill Rodionov believes that the current crisis demonstrates the significant role that Russian gas has played in the European market. Once relations between the EU and Russia stabilize, high prices could become a key argument in the debate over the potential return of Russian gas.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Republican Party convention becomes 'Trump-a-palooza'

An extraordinary Republican Party convention is taking place in Dallas, focusing on the upcoming US congressional elections in early November. Donald Trump is the event's star attraction. The US president remains unfazed by poll data showing his approval rating is falling. Trump spoke of bringing an imminent end to the wars in Iran and Ukraine, promised to give Americans money in exchange for voting Republican, and tried to show that he is leading the party into a "final and decisive battle," in the words of an expert.

Much like the current US president himself, the Dallas convention is highly unusual, especially in terms of its location and timing. Despite being located in Texas, a traditionally Republican state, Dallas is considered a Democratic stronghold. Moreover, it is a city of symbolic significance. It was here in 1963 that John Fitzgerald Kennedy was assassinated; to this day, he remains an "icon" of the Democratic Party. Another peculiarity of the convention is the timing of when it is being held. It is not customary to hold party conventions in a midterm election year. However, Trump boldly broke with this political tradition.

Trump’s two-hour speech at the convention was not a record for the US leader. In it, the president repeated his recent claims and praised his administration’s achievements. He also denounced the "radical left" in the Democratic Party and made promises, including ending the war with Iran after the congressional elections. Judging by the speech, the Russia-Ukraine conflict clearly ranks low on the president’s list of priorities. He did not mention it at all. Before flying to Dallas, Trump merely repeated to reporters what he had said earlier. Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky want to strike a peace deal, but this is hindered by the poor personal relationship between the Russian president and the head of the Kiev regime. One can therefore conclude that Trump does not consider the conflict between Moscow and Kiev to be a viable topic for the Republican election campaign.

Vladimir Vasilyev, a senior researcher at the US and Canada Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that a consistent pattern has been observed in the US for eight decades: in midterm elections, the incumbent president’s party loses. "White House administrations come to power on a wave of promises, many of which, for objective reasons, cannot be fulfilled. Voting against the new president’s party is a kind of conditioned reflex for Americans: the head of state needs to have his ‘wings clipped’ to remind him that he is a servant of the people," the expert said. Presidents have usually accepted this.

According to the expert, Trump’s problem is that he is focused on retaining power, which means the US leader must maintain control over Congress until the next presidential election. Therefore, the expert noted, the head of state is trying to "mobilize his party" around him and frame the upcoming vote as a "final and decisive battle" against left-wing radicals. Perhaps he will succeed.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Reasons behind decline in oil production in Russia and what to expect

Oil production in Russia this year could total 494.2 million metric tons, including gas condensate, which would be the lowest level since 2009, Reuters reported, citing estimates contained in the baseline scenario of the draft of Russia’s new socio-economic development forecast for 2026-2029. In 2025, 511.4 million metric tons of oil were produced, meaning the decline will amount to nearly 3.4%. However, when comparing OPEC data on oil production in Russia for this year and last year, no critical decline is evident yet.

Expert estimates on the potential extent of the decline in oil production in Russia vary. Russian National Energy Security Fund head Konstantin Simonov told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that production is unlikely to fall below 494.2 million metric tons. There will be a decline, but it will most likely settle at around 500 million metric tons. According to DA Consulting CEO Daniil Tyun, 494.2 million metric tons by the end of 2026 is a perfectly realistic forecast. The 511-million-metric-ton forecast was published in May, meaning it was made in the spring. Since then, however, much has changed, so a significant revision of the figures is quite possible.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak previously cited a reduction in oil refining within Russia due to drone attacks on domestic refineries as the main reason for the decline in production. According to Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Russian Financial University, attacks on export infrastructure, primarily Black Sea ports and tankers, also had a negative impact. Russia lacks large oil storage facilities, so it doesn't make sense for companies to produce more than they can sell, Simonov emphasized. According to Tyun, the main reasons for the expected production decline over the next year are geopolitical issues, logistical challenges, and the state of the refining industry.

Andrianov stressed that in the short term, demand from the oil refining sector should stimulate at least a partial recovery in production. In the coming months, Russia will see an increase in domestic consumption of crude oil, which will boost production. In the long term, the country needs to build additional refining capacity to meet domestic demand and increase exports of petroleum products, the expert noted.

According to Tyun, the most sustainable scenario for Russia by the end of the decade is not choosing between oil exports and refining but rather creating a flexible system. Assuming Russian production remains at around 500 million metric tons per year, the country must be able to reallocate tens of millions of metric tons between refineries and exports, depending on prices, sanctions, maintenance, and global market conditions. This flexibility will prevent production cuts every time a sales channel is temporarily disrupted.

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