MOSCOW, September 3. /TASS/. Russia believes a Western concerted action may be behind Vladimir Zelensky’s threat to civil aviation as the conflict between the United States and Iran resumes after a month-long lull. Meanwhile, Romania declines to discuss measures aimed at reducing drone incident risks in the Black Sea. These stories topped Thursday's newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: Western plan may be behind Zelensky’s warning about Russian skies

Kiev has issued a warning to international airlines to steer clear of Russian airspace. That may involve a coordinated action by European countries in an attempt to set their own terms of negotiations, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. The Transport Ministry said it would avert any major disruptions in the functioning of civil aviation, while experts deem a complete closure of Russian skies unlikely. Despite the escalation of rhetoric, Moscow remains ready for a settlement as it still awaits negotiators from the United States.

As Russian troops make gains on the battlefield, Ukraine issued yet another threat that Russian President Vladimir Putin slammed as a "bid for state terrorism." Vladimir Zelensky’s warning came hours after relations between Russia and Germany deteriorated: Germany formally blamed Russia for the drone incident at Leipzig/Halle Airport that took place in early August. Moscow dismissed the accusations as unsubstantiated.

"I think this is a concerted action. Zelensky was likely instructed to act within this framework in order to put as much pressure on Russia as possible. Actually, what Zelensky is doing is making threats to the civilian population. And that is already a war crime," the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia.

Zelensky’s latest statement largely amounts to an attempt to achieve a media impact, while in fact the situation on the front is developing to the advantage of the Russian Armed Forces, according to Yevgeny Semibratov, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts at Peoples' Friendship University of Russia. At the same time, Kiev's threats should not be completely ignored as Ukraine is consistently enhancing its drone capabilities.

Vladimir Popov, a merited military pilot, said Russia’s Air Force and air defenses have considerably diminished the Ukrainian army’s ability to use aircraft in the immediate vicinity of the combat zone. Therefore, the Ukrainians are trying to make up for the lack of aviation capabilities with the massive use of UAVs. According to calculations based on reports from the Russian Defense Ministry, in the summer of 2026, between 750 and 800 drones were reported daily, with the intensity rate increasing to 960 drones by August. During the peak periods of July and August, Russian forces destroyed between 4,500 and 8,000 drones per week.

Nevertheless, Russia remains willing to negotiate, Grigory Karasin, the head of the Russian Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia. However, with his recent statements, Zelensky has undermined his credibility as a responsible politician and he poses a threat to international stability, the senator added.

 

Vedomosti: US, Iran exchange strikes again after a month-long lull

For the first time since late July, the United States and Iran carried out large-scale strikes against each other’s positions in the Middle East. Early on Wednesday morning, units from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched missiles and drones against US military facilities in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait and the Kurdish autonomous region in northern Iraq in response to the US bombing of coastal Iranian cities. At the same time, the IRGC said two tankers struck mines in the Hormuz Strait as they attempted to use what Tehran called an unauthorized route there.

The United States and Iran have reached the stage of managed escalation in the Middle East conflict, Pavel Koshkin, a senior researcher at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. According to him, the two sides will continue to exchange military, rhetorical and economic attacks for a certain period. "As the American and Iranian leaderships view it, willingness to make concessions represents a sign of weakness. At the same time, the sides would hate a repetition of the spiral of violence that occurred in late February. Both the Americans and the Iranians are quite satisfied with how things currently stand and they will have enough resources to continue this confrontation for a very long time," the expert in American studies maintained.

Trump’s mid-term goal is to keep a plateau of managed confrontation for another two years until the next presidential election, Koshkin believes: "Therefore Trump now finds it important to demonstrate a tough and resolute approach to Tehran. Both sides are escalating tensions in the information space which does not automatically mean a military confrontation."

The sides will continue to escalate the situation as differences between the United States and Iran, including over the status of the Strait of Hormuz, have not disappeared, Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Yury Lyamin argued. On the one hand, Washington is trying to bring more Middle East oil onto the global market, and on the other hand, Tehran is trying to use the problem with the waterways as a key political bargaining chip, he said. "The Americans are still trying to demine certain sectors of the route, which is provoking Iranian retaliation. This standoff was there during the ceasefire, so any incidents may cause further escalation, a scenario that is taking place now," the analyst added.

At present, the US economic pressure stemming from the naval blockade poses the main threat to Iran’s security, Lyamin continued. "In this regard, Tehran is prepared to escalate to step up pressure on global markets and the United States. Overnight American attacks on Iranian tankers gave the Iranian leadership a pretext for retaliatory strikes against tankers of the Gulf Arab states," the expert added.

 

Izvestia: Romania hampers measures toward Black Sea security

Romania is reluctant to discuss measures that would reduce the risk of incidents in the Black Sea and along the border with Ukraine, the Russian embassy in Bucharest told Izvestia. The growing frequency of drone attacks and attacks on civilian vessels have heightened tensions in the region. Despite the recent change of government, neighboring Bulgaria, too, still follows NATO’s strict bloc discipline and is boosting its military presence in the Black Sea.

Against this background, Turkey has sought to act as a key mediator in talks on safe navigation. On September 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, held a one-on-one meeting at the SCO summit in Bishkek. Earlier, Turkey’s top diplomat, Hakan Fidan, said Ankara is maintaining contact with both Moscow and Kiev as it expects to formulate new safe navigation rules. However, NATO’s other Black Sea allies have dismissed dialogue. Romania, for one, is not planning to address this issue with Russia, the Russian embassy in Bucharest told Izvestia.

For Romania, the Black Sea is a space of strategic rivalry with Russia rather than a zone where it should establish a sustainable mechanism of interaction, according to Artyom Perchun, a researcher at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies of the National Research University Higher School of Economics. Any compromises would contradict NATO’s current strategy designed not to build trust with Moscow but focused on a military buildup since 2022.

The policy course pursued by Romania’s neighbor, Bulgaria, is also contributing to regional tensions. "Even in the absence of explicitly Russophobic rhetoric, Sofia continues to follow Western guidelines in our direction, including in the context of `strengthening NATO’s defense capabilities,’ which inevitably leads to militarization of the Black Sea region," the Russian embassy in Bulgaria told Izvestia.

Meanwhile, Romania has in fact been the main route of weapons supplies to Ukraine, Andrey Kortunov, an expert with the Valdai Discussion Club, noted. If in 2022-2024 Poland’s Rzeszow served as a key and almost uncontested hub for NATO, by 2026 the alliance deliberately turned Romania into its second largest military logistics hub on the eastern flank, he said.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Moscow, Yerevan move closer to parting ways

Late on Tuesday evening, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held talks on the future of Yerevan in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). On the whole, the Russian and Armenian leaders focused on whether Armenia’s course toward European integration would conflict with its EAEU membership during the public part of their conversation. Putin sees this as a problem as he suggested the Armenian PM hold a referendum so as not to escalate the situation. Apparently, he suspects that the majority of Armenians will vote against, given the latest developments, and that would be the end of the matter. In turn, Pashinyan is not even trying to hide that his nation is not yet ready to make what he views as the correct decision, so there will be no plebiscite.

On September 2, the EU Council approved trade measures to support Armenia. The trade relief measures will apply for two years and cover 80% of Armenian exports amid Russian restrictions on Armenian supplies, Brussels emphasized.

The latest measures will hardly have any positive effect in 2026 as the fruit and vegetables season is coming to a close, but they may produce a result next year, Sergey Melkonyan, a research fellow at the Applied Policy Research Institute of Armenia, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. The decision by Brussels will not heighten the conflict between Armenia and the EAEU as Armenian exports to the EU do not undermine the Eurasian organization’s interests, he argued.

"As regards the talks, Pashinyan and Putin agreed to reassess the Armenian-Russian relationship," Melkonyan noted as he highlighted this as the main piece of positive news which was also mentioned by the Armenian head of government.

At the same time, the expert continued, Yerevan has adopted a course for downgrading the level of cooperation with Russia which would affect the defense, energy, transport infrastructure and trade spheres. "As regards Moscow, it will need to decide whether it would like to retain its influence in the South Caucasus or is ready for a divorce. <…> Much will perhaps depend on the next round of talks. Perhaps in order to reduce risks, Pashinyan may want to meet with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev who should visit Yerevan in October. After that, we could reach some conclusions regarding what will happen at the EAEU summit in December," Melkonyan concluded.

 

Kommersant: Russian diesel export ban fuels US exports

The global diesel shortage, caused by the Russian export ban and disruptions to supplies from the Middle East, has enabled US producers to increase exports to a record level and driven prices higher. Russian companies may be forced to offer discounts to reclaim their share after exports resume.

Amid geopolitical tensions and as Russian exports were suspended in August, US diesel exports rose to a record high of 54.2 million barrels, a 16.3% increase from July, a report by S&P Global showed. And spot prices for ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) on Mexico’s East Coast surged to $4.7 per gallon, the highest since S&P Global began to issue reports in May 2006. According to the latest report, the key factor that prompted the sharp rise in prices was Russia’s move to extend the diesel export ban to September 30.

The situation now favors diesel producers and exporters, Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government, noted: in addition to the complete suspension of petroleum product supplies from the Persian Gulf countries, shipments of crude to major refiners such as India have also declined. Consequently, they too are cutting diesel fuel exports, the analyst said. The other reason for the global shortage is linked to the halted Russian exports. According to Yushkov, American suppliers are taking the place of Russian, Middle Eastern, and Indian producers in this situation.

Dmitry Skryabin, a portfolio manager at Alfa-Capital brokerage, recalled that Russia has historically been the world's second-largest diesel exporter after the United States, and therefore it could swiftly restore its position in the global market. The key issue, the analyst continued, is not so much maintaining physical market share as the pricing parameters of export contracts, as a reshuffle in supply chains and a return to the market could alter the final cost of supplies.

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