MOSCOW, July 21. /TASS/. Mediators float temporary truce in the US-Iran standoff; Coalition of the Willing to practice Ukraine troop deployment in Poland drills; and what Britain's policy could look like under the new prime minister. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.·

 

Media: Mediators float temporary truce in US-Iran standoff

A pause is looming in the latest round of large-scale escalation between the United States and Iran. Tehran has received a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire from mediators. During the truce, the parties are expected to discuss ways to return to compliance with the memorandum they signed in June. However, experts interviewed by Izvestia do not expect dialogue to deviate too much from previous rounds, with the most complicated issues, such as Iran’s nuclear program, once again put on the back burner.

Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, believes both parties want a ceasefire, with US President Donald Trump seeking to claim a political victory ahead of the November midterm elections and Iran facing severe economic challenges.

International political scientist Yelena Suponina believes Iran recognizes it is "playing with fire," so Tehran is likely to come back to the negotiating table in the near future. Both analysts expect that if negotiations do restart, the two sides will return to their previous approach, putting aside the most difficult issues, including Iran's nuclear issue, while focusing on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring the safe passage of ships.

As tensions between Tehran and Washington continue to escalate, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes. Meanwhile, opinion polls show that the Iran war remains unpopular among Americans. If shipping disruptions in the Red Sea are added to problems in the Strait of Hormuz, the situation on the oil market may worsen, leading to a rise in gasoline prices in the United States. That said, a prolonged conflict in the Middle East - let alone an expansion of military operations - would work against Trump and the Republican Party in the run-up to the congressional elections.

For Trump, launching a full-scale war before November would bury the Republicans in the midterms, Middle East expert Kirill Semyonov told Izvestia. However, in his view, the problem is that Washington has already been drawn into a spiral of escalation, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for the US administration to pull back without losing credibility.

 

Izvestia: EU's Poland drills to serve as rehearsal for Ukraine troop deployment

The British-and French-led military exercises that are expected to be held in Poland may have a provocative main aim - to do a dry run for deploying EU troops to Ukraine, European Parliament member Fernand Kartheiser told Izvestia. Another MEP, Petar Volgin, believes that plans to deploy European forces to Ukraine are aimed at prolonging the conflict, as EU leaders and the governments of most member states are doing everything they can to provoke Russia.

Russian analysts share a similar view. The drills in Poland could give participating countries an opportunity to rehearse the deployment of Western troops to Ukraine, Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of Moscow State Pedagogical University’s Institute of History and Politics, said. Tigran Meloyan, an analyst with the Higher School of Economics, believes that the final stage of these military preparations is supposed to involve the creation of a joint headquarters responsible for planning and carrying out an operation to deploy troops to the country.

Shapovalov noted that not all members of the so-called Coalition of the Willing were prepared to send troops to Ukraine, with opponents of the idea outnumbering its supporters. Italy, in particular, has consistently opposed the proposal to deploy a military contingent to Ukraine, and Spain has also said it has no such plans. Bulgaria has recently left the group, with the country’s new government highlighting diplomacy as the only way to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. The majority of European countries would simply not risk taking part in such initiatives without a mandate from the UN Security Council, Kartheiser stressed.

If the Coalition of the Willing ends up deciding to send troops to Ukraine without Moscow’s consent, Russia could first issue an official warning to European diplomatic missions that the Russian Armed Forces would view those troops as legitimate military targets, Meloyan noted. As for military measures, he suggested that strikes on areas near the Polish and Slovak borders could intensify, making it clear that Russia is capable of carrying out precision attacks against targets far from the line of contact. The expert added that Moscow could use high-precision long-range weapons for such operations.

 

Media: What to expect from UK policy as Burnham takes helm as new PM

Former mayor of Greater Manchester and new Labour Party leader Andy Burnham officially supplanted Keir Starmer as Britain’s prime minister on July 20. Now, he will be tasked with forming a new cabinet, Vedomosti notes.

As prime minister, Burnham will look to decentralize power, Sergey Shein, senior researcher with the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, believes. This means that the new government will opt for a more socially-oriented policy.

Meanwhile, Britain’s foreign policy is unlikely to undergo significant changes, Shein pointed out. London will continue to support Kiev and maintain its special relationship with Washington, while seeking to restore trade and economic ties with the European Union. On the other hand, in Shein’s words, it’s going to be extremely difficult for Burnham to fulfill his pledge to increase social spending while also raising defense expenditures, as the government recently announced it would like to do. British authorities could try to scale back economic aid to Ukraine and earmark that money to go towards domestic issues, the expert suggested.

Valdai International Discussion Club expert Andrey Kortunov also does not expect any dramatic changes to British foreign policy. However, given the new cabinet’s priorities, chances are that support for Ukraine will gradually become more limited. The matter is that addressing domestic challenges will require additional spending so London could run out of money for Kiev, Kortunov explained.

Britain’s Middle East policy is where changes are possible, as Burnham has announced plans to increase pressure on the Israeli government as he even apologized for London’s initial support for the Jewish state’s operation in the Gaza Strip, Izvestia notes. Overall, the new prime minister is unlikely to alter the course of a country that remains one of NATO’s key members and a major player on the European continent, even though some decisions could differ from London’s traditional rhetoric.

 

Izvestia: Russian diesel ban puts US in catbird seat

The Russian government’s decision to ban diesel exports has impacted not only the domestic market but also global fuel supplies. Faced with shortages, importers in developing countries and Europe have turned to the US for their oil, Izvestia notes.

Over the past few decades, Russia has developed its oil industry with a focus on exports in the diesel sector. Before 2022, the country supplied up to 35-40 million metric tons of fuel to Europe annually. After Western sanctions were imposed on Moscow, Russia had to redirect supplies, but volumes remained on the global market, with diesel exports funneled to Turkey, Brazil, African countries, and the Middle East and Russia retaining its position as one of the world’s largest maritime suppliers of diesel fuel.

However, this summer, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil processing facilities disrupted a significant share of production capacity. Understanding the risk of domestic shortages, the Russian government introduced a ban on diesel exports. The removal of nearly one million barrels per day from the seaborne market triggered a domino effect. Countries that had previously purchased Russian diesel at discounted prices, including Brazil and Turkey, were forced to compete with European buyers for available supplies.

The crisis in the Middle East complicated the situation, while countries turned to the United States to fulfill the demand. As US refineries saw higher premiums on foreign markets, they started to increase exports, causing domestic stockpiles to shrink and pushing prices higher.

If Russia’s export ban remains in place for an extended period, the global economy will face significant challenges. Diesel fuel is the life blood of commodity markets, and higher prices will inevitably lead to increased logistics costs across all economic sectors.

With the Strait of Hormuz closed, easing tensions in the global energy market would be nearly impossible without the return of Russian export volumes. Until Russian refineries complete repairs and the government finds that domestic supplies are stable enough to lift the ban, companies will have to pay high fuel prices, passing the costs on to consumers.

 

Vedomosti: Greece delays adoption of new EU sanctions package on Russia

The European Commission may revise the 21st package of sanctions on Russia, Vedomosti reports, citing Western media outlets. Greece has reportedly stalled its adoption, citing a clash with its own interests, as a potential ban on the transportation of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) could hit Greek shipowners hard.

A number of leading EU countries are on board with Athens in rejecting the new sanctions package. Germany and Portugal call for lifting restrictions on Russian fish imports, Austria wants to see sanctions on its Raiffeisen bank removed, while France and Italy oppose plans to introduce visa restrictions on Russian citizens, citing the importance of revenues from Russian tourism.

Greece’s major gas carrier operator Dynagas could go bankrupt if measures targeting Russian LNG supplies are approved, Alexander Kamkin, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, said. Dynagas reportedly has ties to the Greek government, so Athens will highly likely seek to prevent the company’s collapse. According to the expert, the 21st package of sanctions will ultimately be adopted, but only after a compromise is reached with Greece or amendments are introduced.

The European Union faces the same problem with every new package - maintaining pressure through sanctions without harming itself too much in the process, Artyom Sokolov, a researcher at the European Studies Institute of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, pointed out. Neither the EU nor Russia benefit from economic sanctions, but Brussels remains committed to staying the course with restrictions.

A number of EU countries have expressed discontent over the need to introduce new sanctions against Russia, although it's usually one member nation that bears the burden of carrying the message. Hungary and Slovakia have previously played the role, and now, Greece has stepped forward. However, the country serving as the symbol of opposition to sanctions is not that important, the expert added. According to Sokolov, the most controversial measures, including a potential ban on Russian LNG exports, are indeed likely to be removed from the next package.

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