MOSCOW, July 15. /TASS/. Washington and Tehran seek to gain leverage over control of the Strait of Hormuz, and experts assess the new US sanctions bill on Russia. Meanwhile, Russia and the United States agree to conclude their International Space Station project in late 2030. These stories topped Wednesday's headlines in Russia.

 

Izvestia: US, Iran seek to leverage control of Hormuz

Even as US President Donald Trump reversed his idea to charge a 20% fee on cargo shipping through the Strait of Hormuz on July 14, this major global waterway will be subject to tolls anyway in the near future, experts argue. Gulf exporters may face either indirect expenses if the US leader imposes any investment agreements on them, or direct costs if Iran and Oman introduce a toll. In a situation where navigation through the Strait has almost stopped, Arab monarchies are actively building alternative routes, but those will require billions of dollars in investment and time.

A disrupted ceasefire between Iran and the United States has caused a new wave of escalation in the Middle East. Trump sent a formal notice to Congress that the Iran conflict has resumed on Monday, and the two sides have exchanged strikes. The Americans are mostly targeting Iranian ports, while the IRGC has been attacking US infrastructure in the region, including military bases, air defense systems, early warning facilities, and fuel infrastructure in Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain.

Iran is pursuing the goal of weakening regional air defenses that Israel has relied on, Maria Kicha, an expert in Oriental studies, believes. According to her, Israel’s air defenses and anti-missile systems were originally part of a broader regional system, elements of which were deployed in US-aligned Gulf monarchies and Jordan.

In parallel, the two conflicting sides are seeking to take control of shipping routes in the Hormuz Strait, targeting tankers and other commercial ships that pass through the Strait without sanctions from Tehran. Between July 7 and 14, six such attacks were reported, even as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for attacking only two UAE-owned tankers, Mombasa and Bahi. For his part, Trump said on Tuesday that the United States was destroying all Iranian capabilities related to control of the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday night, the United States struck coastal defense facilities with missiles for five hours, while uncrewed kamikaze boats hit the Bandar Abbas naval base.

The Strait of Hormuz has long been moving toward commercialization, Farkhad Ibragimov, lecturer at the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia and the Financial University, noted. And the latest statements from Trump look like an attempt at wishful thinking, for Iran will not agree to any US control of the waterway. And the Iranian side will impose a fee anyway. Even as tariffs could be revisited, Tehran is already putting the very idea of establishing control into practice.

At that, a levy on passage through the Hormuz Strait will hardly cause a shock to the oil market, Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. It is the requirement for establishing a permanent control system, not the size of a potential fee, that represents a key issue. The idea is actually to isolate one of the key bottlenecks in global trade, and the player who ensures such control will actually govern the waterway through which almost 20 million bpd, or one-fifth of global oil transit, were shipped until recently.

 

Vedomosti: Experts assess risks of new US sanctions bill on Russia

US leader Donald Trump will back the passage of a bill imposing additional sanctions on Russia, CNN reported, citing a White House official. The measure was initiated by the late Senator Lindsey Graham (designated as a terrorist and extremist in Russia) before he died on July 11.

This comes amid attempts by Graham’s fellow GOP senators to highlight his political career and somehow preserve his legacy. The bill was drafted back in April 2025, and it introduces 13 restrictive measures, including sanctions against individuals and financial entities supporting or associated with Russian government officials. The potential imposition of tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy, or the so-called secondary tariffs, represents the most notable element of the sanctions bill. It envisages a tariff rate of up to 100 percent for the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas. The original version of the text had a ceiling of 500%.

Almost all of the sanctions mentioned in the draft sanctions bill have either been imposed and are already in force or could easily be introduced by the mandate of the executive power. Or else the Trump administration may implement provisions of the bill purely symbolically or even fail to implement it at all, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council Ivan Timofeyev told Vedomosti. The expert described the bill as a gun that Trump could keep on his desk and brandish in hopes of securing concessions from the opposing side. "Trump’s support to the bill will hardly affect Russia’s policy course. It may add a psychological effect though. Even from a purely pragmatic perspective, why should this factor be taken into consideration in political terms if it doesn’t actually change anything," he asked rhetorically.

The advancement and potential imposition of the sanctions bill is yet another way of putting pressure on Russia for new concessions toward resolving the Ukraine conflict, said Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics. According to the expert, Trump would not like to end talks, he is just seeking to reinforce his negotiating positions. "For the bill does not make it mandatory for Trump to impose sanctions, but it gives him the right to decide whether they are necessary or not in any specific case. This shows that the bill is acting as a signal for the time being," Suslov concluded.

 

Vedomosti: Russia, US to complete ISS program by end of 2030

Russia and the United States have developed a joint program to conclude their International Space Station (ISS) project in late 2030, a spokesperson for the office of Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said following a meeting between the senior Russian official and Jared Isaacman, the administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), at the Baikonur space center after the launch of a Soyuz MS-29 freighter. Jointly with Roscosmos CEO Dmitry Bakanov, Isaacman and Manturov watched the liftoff of a Soyuz 2.1a booster rocket that launched this spacecraft.

The crew includes Roscosmos cosmonauts Pyotr Dubrov and Anna Kikina, and NASA astronaut Anil Menon. The spacecraft used a super short trajectory and docked with the ISS in approximately two hours. The cosmonauts will conduct 38 experiments in orbit and perform two spacewalks.

Russia is also ready to discuss with NASA prospects of cooperation between the national orbital stations, including for mutual assistance in emergencies. Besides, Russia sees potential for cooperation with the United States as part of lunar programs, including in building docking mechanisms, establishing radio communications, and handling satellite communication and navigation in future Lunar missions.

Cooperation in space exploration between Russia and the United States can only be technical in nature, as statements from the Russian side show, Director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Ruslan Pukhov explained to Vedomosti. There are no political conditions for the same kind of extensive cooperation as when the ISS was established or during commercial launches in the 1990s and the 2010s, and it’s hard to say when they will emerge, for everything is under strict American sanctions, he continued. Cooperation in the sphere with China is feasible, and Russia has already negotiated cooperation in building a lunar station with the East Asian country, the expert said.

Clearly, the building of compatible docking ports, the establishment of radio communications, and potential assistance in rescue operations constitute a kind of "humanitarian space initiative," a Russian space industry official told the newspaper. In the event of an emergency in outer space, political confrontation on the ground should not obstruct relief operations that require such technical preparation, he continued. Apparently, this is the minimum that Russia and the United States can maintain in space exploration, and top managers at Roscosmos have no expectations about the possibility of any deeper partnership, the official concluded.

 

Kommersant: US chooses new target for strikes on Iran

Being unable to align the prospects of Iran’s nuclear activity with the Islamic Republic, the United States has continued to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. US President Donald Trump has threatened to attack Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, which he described as a "possible target for a nice big fat shot." US specialists argue that a secret nuclear facility is currently being built or has already been constructed beneath it. While no information about its exact purpose is available in open sources, the United States does not rule out that a uranium enrichment plant could be under construction there. Destroying it will not be an easy task, for the facility is located at a depth of between 80 to 100 meters, where even American anti-bunker bombs may not be able to reach it.

The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) has kept a close watch over Pickaxe Mountain. ISIS reports show that construction of a certain underground facility in that mountainous terrain began back in 2020. It is close to the Natanz nuclear facility in Iran’s Isfahan Province which includes an underground uranium enrichment plant.

Since Pickaxe Mountain is in Isfahan Province, the facility beneath it could be the very Isfahan uranium enrichment plant of which Iran has informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). However, there is still too little publicly available data to say for sure whether this is the same facility or two separate ones. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi recently emphasized that attacks on any nuclear facility are unacceptable.

However, the United States and Israel have insisted that Iran is seeking to build a nuclear weapon, something that the IAEA has not confirmed, as they justify their actions with the need to prevent this development. Iran has yet to comment on Trump’s threat to attack Pickaxe Mountain.

"Amid armed strikes and threats of new attacks targeting Iran’s nuclear fuel cycle infrastructure from the United States and Israel, Tehran's ambitions to scatter and shelter materials, equipment, and installations in safer locations is understandable, firstly, to avoid radiation incidents, and secondly, to preserve the results of many years of work by scientists and engineers," Center for Energy and Security Studies Director Anton Khlopkov told Kommersant. According to him, the closure of information regarding the location and storage, including from the IAEA, is not ", in effect, Iran’s choice but a predictable response to aggression against the country’s nuclear facilities, previously declared for IAEA inspection."

Meanwhile, it’s not clear if the US will be able to "destroy" the facility under Pickaxe Mountain, as Trump has pledged. "It’s hard to say anything for sure without knowing the geology of the area or the structure of the facility, but if the data on its depth is correct, then the non-nuclear weapons at US disposal can only be somewhat effective if they hit the target through the window," Konstantin Bogdanov, who heads the strategic analysis and forecasting center at the International Security Center of IMEMO RAS explained to Kommersant. A strike on portals and outer elements of supporting infrastructure could be more feasible, the expert added, saying that "This could disrupt the functioning of the facility, but not destroy it."

 

Kommersant: Hostilities in Middle East send Brent above $84

Brent prices have hit a new one-month high as they climbed to about $87.50 per barrel on July 14, closing at $84, which is 17% higher than the level seen at the beginning of the month. Active hostilities between the United States and Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have revived optimistic sentiment. Analysts expect volatility to stay high, which, in the absence of an agreement, could push oil prices to $100 per barrel, given US inventories have fallen to their lowest level since mid-2003. Investors were also bullish on stocks of Russian oil companies.

Difficulties with navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, through which up to 20% of all global oil is shipped, are further intensified by the depletion of global oil reserves, Yelena Kozhukhova, an analyst at Veles Capital, told Kommersant. According to the US Department of Energy, the country's strategic petroleum reserves shrank to 1.517 billion barrels by early July, the lowest level since June 2003. "Oil prices will remain extremely volatile in the next few days, with investors focusing primarily on the developments in the Middle East," Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Aricapital broker, said.

To curb price increases, investors should be convinced that "the parties are ready to reach real agreements regarding the status of the Strait of Hormuz, given how quickly previous agreements were breached," Alexander Potavin, an analyst at Finam, maintained. Otherwise, oil prices could surge to $100 per barrel or higher, as they did in March-May 2026, Kirill Bakhtin, chief equity analyst at BCS World of Investments, warned.

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