MOSCOW, July 7. /TASS/. The United States and Europe may come into conflict over Ukraine at the upcoming NATO summit, as Western companies are expected to benefit further from defense orders. Meanwhile, China’s missile test has raised concerns in the Asia-Pacific. These stories topped Tuesday's headlines in Russia.

 

Izvestia: US, Europe to clash over Ukraine at NATO summit

US President Donald Trump is seeking to revive talks on Ukraine, following a recent phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, he is planning to meet Vladimir Zelensky in Ankara on July 8 before holding another conversation with the Russian leader. Meanwhile, NATO has already prepared proposals for a new loan to Kiev as the bloc expects a unanimous approval at the upcoming summit, Izvestia has learned. Even as European leaders will try to persuade the US leader to put more pressure on Moscow, Washington will likely maintain a pragmatic stance, experts say.

Since the Geneva round of talks in February, the sides have not communicated either directly or in the trilateral format. However, full-fledged talks on a Ukraine settlement will hardly resume immediately, political analyst Denis Denisov told Izvestia. The positions of the parties to the conflict remain the same, especially as Washington too has held a controversial stance: on the one hand, the White House is offering its mediation, on the other hand, it has continued to support Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Europe is not promoting any peaceful agreements as no EU settlement proposals exist, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. "There is only a set of ultimatums, all of which are strict," the diplomat noted.

European leaders will try to persuade Trump to abandon peace and put more pressure on Russia, said Natalya Yeryomina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University. On the contrary, Moscow has warned Washington that such a step would only increase escalation risks. The US president himself will likely navigate between the two opposite scenarios, while avoiding any strong commitments.

The North Atlantic Alliance has already drafted proposals for a new package for Ukraine, and NATO leaders will consider it at the summit, the French embassy to Russia told Izvestia.

More funding for Ukraine is meant to continue the conflict and bloodshed, Miroshnik emphasized. Germany is expected to play an active part in it as a substantial share of the money will be disbursed through German defense companies, he added.

It will be impossible not to discuss NATO’s future at the Ankara summit: the alliance does not intend to admit Ukraine, as it already has enough contradictions. Ad hoc stability, where problems will gradually pile up, is seen as the most likely scenario, a report from Polilog consultancy seen by Izvestia showed. Experts admit that there is little chance of NATO formally collapsing, but the alliance may also be reorganized, with Europe shouldering more responsibilities.

 

Vedomosti: Western defense companies project $1 trillion in revenues by 2029

Among other topics, the upcoming NATO summit in Turkey will discuss more weapons deliveries to Ukraine and the pace of Europe’s militarization push, driven by the specific interest of Western military industrial corporations with a higher demand for budget funds.

The aggregate revenues of the top 50 Western public military industrial corporations rose by 11% to $698 billion in 2025, financial reports seen by Izvestia show. Their net profit posted a 42% increase from $37 billion to $53 billion.

By 2029, these companies expect to boost revenues to $974 billion, a 40% rise from 2025, according to forecasts and financial reports of the corporations. European defense companies are the most upbeat as they seek a 64% increase in revenues from $172 billion to $282 billion, which would exceed the nominal growth of Europe’s GDP that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects at 19% by more than threefold.

The backbone of the European military industrial sector has financial links to the US defense industry and the largest transnational investment funds that effectively own and manage the assets of European defense companies, Alexander Stepanov, a military expert at the Institute of Law and National Security at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), noted. They are developing a militarization strategy, lobbying for budget increases and rearmament efforts based on a new technological paradigm that involves hyperscalers, additive manufacturing, and an emphasis on research and development. Investors no longer view increased defense spending as a short-term response to the Ukrainian conflict.

Today, the market believes that NATO is beginning a multi-year rearmament cycle, Pavel Sevostyanov, Associate Professor at the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, told Vedomosti.

Since June 2025, Kiev has intensified cooperation with European partners as part of the Build with Ukraine strategy, especially in drone production. In February, Zelensky announced plans to establish 10 foreign defense export centers by the end of 2026, including in London, Berlin, and Copenhagen. The initiative will also expand to the Baltic states, Romania, Norway, the Netherlands, and Poland. This will transform countries into a "creeping" strategic support base for Ukraine and draw them into the war against Russia, Russian officials have warned. New means and methods of warfare are being tested in Ukraine as if at a training ground, Stepanov argued.

The accelerated growth of European companies could continue for another three to five years, while they actively expand their capacity and generate new orders, Sevostyanov said. After that, the pace will likely gradually align with the American one. Defense spending at 3-3.5% of GDP for the largest European economies looks achievable without significantly destabilizing their finances, given gradual growth. However, the increasingly discussed transition to 5% of GDP already represents a fundamentally different burden. Expenditures are being shifted toward the military-industrial complex from social services and development programs.

Therefore, the Europeans will need to stoke military hysteria and fear of Russia to accumulate enough political capital, said Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics.

 

Vedomosti: Chinese missile launch alarms even Australia and New Zealand

On July 6, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) of China test fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile. Judging from the footage and the initial conclusions of analysts, China might have tested its flagship missile JL-3 with a range of around 10,000 km that can reach the continental United States. The test was not directed against "any specific country or target," Xinhua news agency said.

China extremely rarely launches an ICBM for its full range into the southern Pacific, Yury Lyamin, senior researcher at the Center for Strategies and Technologies, told Vedomosti. The latest launch involved either the JL-2 with a range of 8,000 to 9,000 km, which has been in service with the PLAN since the 2000s, or the JL-3 - it’s hard to say exactly which. Previously, China tested two ICBMs, a DF-5 and DF-31Ag, for their full range into the southern Pacific, in 1980 and 2024 respectively, and each such test launch represents an event, the expert emphasized. However, those two ICBMs were land-based missiles, while the recent launch of a submarine-fired ballistic missile for its full range into the Pacific was the first ever, Lyamin said.

Meanwhile, even as China said it had conducted the launch according to rules, New Zealand disagreed. Its Foreign Minister Winston Peters argued that China carried out the test within hours of informing his country. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong also confirmed that notice from China came only hours before the launch, adding that the test may destabilize the situation in the region.

On Monday, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in response to a question from AFP: "We believe that it’s China’s sovereign right to test its missiles and continue military development. China does not threaten any country in the region or other parts of the world." He also commented on the Russia-China Joint Sea 2026 naval exercise that kicked off on July 6, saying it is not aimed against any country in the region.

The Chinese test launch itself and the reaction to it from a number of Asia-Pacific countries, primarily Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, are underpinned not only by purely military-technical or political reasons but a combination of both, Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, explained. The latter comes amid broader tensions in relations between China, the United States, and their allies, the expert believes. The reaction from regional players also stems from the fact that the area where the missile was tested lies in the zone covered by the Treaty of Rarotonga, which has formalized a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the southern Pacific since 1986. However, China has not formally breached this agreement, as it launched a missile without a nuclear warhead, the expert stressed. The SLBM was tested amid growing tensions in the region, where both the US military presence and Chinese defense programs are increasing simultaneously, he explained.

 

Izvestia: Russia may miss EU’s top 20 trading partners for first time ever

Even after 20 rounds of restrictions were imposed on Russia, the country remained among the top twenty largest partners of the European Union, although the volume of mutual trade continues to shrink. In January-April, the trade turnover between Russia and the bloc fell by 16.5% from the same period last year, the Permanent Mission of Russia to the EU told Izvestia. According to diplomats, the downturn has affected almost all product categories. Experts do not rule out that Russia may drop out of the EU's top twenty trading partners as early as this year. At the same time, the course toward severing economic ties being pursued by Brussels, according to their estimates, has mostly affected the EU itself: the losses of European countries from weaning themselves off Russian energy resources alone are estimated at €3 trillion, while Russia continues to diversify export flows.

In 2024, Russia ranked 15th among the EU's leading trading partners in terms of mutual trade turnover. In 2025, it slipped to 19th place, the Russian diplomatic mission noted. If this trend continues, Russia may drop out of the top 20 leading EU trading partners as early as 2026, Yegor Sergeyev, senior research fellow at the Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, told Izvestia. According to him, the specific outcome will depend on the dynamics of prices for the remaining range of goods, but Brussels’ strategic course toward reducing trade with Russia is obvious.

In recent years, the European economy has been showing very slow growth, and the situation is worsening: in Q1 of 2026, the EU economy shrank by 0.1% from the end of last year. Energy prices may rise significantly amid the conflict in the Middle East, experts warn. Should this be accompanied by high inflation, the EU economy risks plunging into a full-fledged recession this year. "Against this backdrop, the EU itself continues to dig a hole for itself by abandoning its long-term and mutually advantageous economic cooperation with our country," Russia’s Permanent Mission to the EU said.

Meanwhile, Asian partners have been taking over the European market in Russia’s foreign trade. Before 2022, Europe bought about half of all Russian oil exports, and by February 2023, the share dropped to 8%. Tanker shipments from Russia to European countries have now almost completely stopped, as 95% of seaborne exports now go to Asia. The reorientation of trade relations has already occurred, Sergeyev argued. In terms of imports, Russia has actually reached the levels that existed before the 2022 restrictions, due to new suppliers, primarily China and Central Asian countries acting as a buffer for supplies from the EU.

And there are no signs yet that Brussels may change course, with the EU working to coordinate the 21st sanctions package. Although there is no absolute unity within the association, Southern European countries and part of Eastern Europe often express disagreement with the policy of severing the remaining ties. But the EU's confrontational logic toward Russia will remain central in the foreseeable future.

 

Kommersant: Russian operators boost seaborne oil shipments

In June, Russian tanker operators raised oil shipments to 18.7 million barrels, the highest volume since October 2023. Analysts say this comes as part of the tanker fleet has shifted to the Russian flag, which helps reduce risks, and as commodity exports grow amid a drop in refining.

According to analysts, the share of Russian-flagged tankers involved in oil transportation has risen after Botswana, Madagascar, and other countries removed dozens of vessels involved in trade with Russia.

Roman Sokolov, director of PBC Index, said the increase in transportation by Russian ship owners reflects the trend of re-registering fleets under national flags to reduce risks. According to him, amid rising geopolitical pressure on logistics, this gives the country greater legal leverage to protect the interests of carriers. The declining share of tankers controlled by companies from China and the UAE is also tied to this process, the expert told Kommersant: part of such vessels was re-registered under the Russian flag earlier this year. Vasily Kutyin, director of analytics at Ingo Bank, said global instability is driving greater flexibility in logistics to reroute shipments quickly.

Maria Nikitina, the founder of N. Trans Lab, expects a slight rise in the share of Russian operators in the second half of the year if pressure on Chinese and Emirati entities continues. The expert cited detentions in European waters, broader sanctions, and ports refusing to accept vessels with controversial registration as key risks facing Russian vessels.

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