MOSCOW, July 6. /TASS/. US leader Donald Trump phoned Russian President Vladimir Putin as Russian forces advance ahead of the NATO summit, and Moscow and Washington fail to restore dialogue at the OPCW. Meanwhile, the earthquake relief effort brings Venezuelans and Americans closer together. These stories topped Monday's headlines in Russia.

 

Izvestia: Trump calls Vladimir Putin while Russian forces advance ahead of NATO summit

The latest progress on the battlefield by the Russian Army is a strong argument for Washington as another phone call between Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Donald Trump of the United States showed. The conversation was held at the initiative of the American side which expressed readiness to continue negotiations by dispatching Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and the US leader’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Meanwhile, the Kiev regime refused to recognize the liberation of Konstantinovka, a strategically important stronghold, by Russian forces and repatriate bodies of their fallen soldiers. The Russian Foreign Ministry argued that Ukraine creates the illusion of victory for its Western curators to win more support as a two-day NATO summit kicks off in Ankara tomorrow.

Washington’s call rather shows the United States’ consistent stance and willingness to act as a mediator, Dmitry Novikov, associate professor at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia. It should be noted that several officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have lately made ambiguous statements, which were construed by Brussels and Kiev as the tightening of the position toward Russia.

The third Trump-Putin call in four months demonstrates that both sides are prepared to maintain communication, Higher School of Economics analyst Yegor Toropov said. This, he argued, is also a symbolic move in the ongoing restoration and future expansion of dialogue between the two countries. As Kremlin Aide Yury Ushakov said, Trump stressed the vast prospects for economic cooperation between Russia and the United States after the conflict in the phone call as he stressed the need to end it as quickly as possible in order to fully realize this potential. In effect, the US leader explicitly linked the restoration of broad cooperation between the countries to the quickest possible cessation of fighting in Ukraine. The Western media views this as a message from Washington to its European partners that the White House is not planning to continue incurring endless costs while giving up promising opportunities.

The seizure of Konstantinovka paves the way for Russia’s further advance to Kramatorsk and Slavyansk which is key to the liberating of the entire territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). Therefore, rejecting a ceasefire suggests that senior Ukrainian military commanders and political leaders took the loss of this locality quite painfully, while recognizing victory here for the Russian Armed Forces actually means admitting defeat and local surrender, Novikov believes.

Trump’s call comes amid notable developments on the battlefield. Western media reported that the loss of this key stronghold puts Ukraine’s entire defensive line in Donbass at stake. The progress of Russian forces ahead of the summit makes it difficult for the bloc to continue shaping the Ukraine talks blindly from the position of power. While Russia has reinforced its demands with concrete territorial changes, the United States and its allies may have to urgently rewrite peace settlement scenarios.

 

Izvestia: Russia, US fail to restore dialogue at OPCW

The United States has been making accusations against Russia at the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), Russia's permanent representative to the organization and Russian Ambassador to the Netherlands Vladimir Tarabrin, told Izvestia. According to him, the dialogue, which was interrupted in 2022 at the US initiative, has not been revived. In these conditions, the risks of provocations by Ukrainian troops using toxic substances are rising. The Russian Defense Ministry earlier reported over 600 documented instances of the use of chemical weapons by Ukraine. Threats of the use of chemical weapons, as well as attacks on civilian targets have delayed peace in Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine held their latest round of negotiations with the participation of the United States in February, but Moscow is ready to continue contacts.

The US rejecting dialogue with Russia at the OPCW may be explained not only due to anti-Russian rhetoric, but also with the Trump administration's negative attitude to international organizations in general, Ivan Loshkarev, an associate professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), pointed out. Thus, in January, the United States exited from the World Health Organization (WHO), and Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized other UN institutions too.

Against the backdrop of an unfavorable situation facing Ukrainian troops along the line of engagement, the risks of large-scale provocations using toxic substances in the zone of the special military operation increase manifold, Tarabrin emphasized. "[Ukrainian] nationalists are losing one locality after another. In these circumstances, in order to `interrupt’ the media narrative, the Kiev regime is ready to commit any crimes, including false-flag chemical provocations." In addition, chemical industry facilities are being attacked for a clear goal of causing environmental disasters and thereby provoking panic among the civilian population," the Russian envoy noted.

Kiev regularly arranges such provocations. The main purpose of such actions is to blame Russia and divert the attention of the world community away from resolving the conflict, Moscow Pedagogical State University’s History and Politics Institute Deputy Director Vladimir Shapovalov told Izvestia. At that, pinning hopes on the reaction of international organizations is challenging, since their secretariats are dominated by representatives of Western countries or developing nations loyal to them, Loshkarev emphasized. By the way, a probe conducted the US National Intelligence service earlier confirmed statements from Russia about biolabs in Ukraine being sponsored by the United States.

The normalization of relations between Russia and the United States has not yet covered the entire area of interaction between the two countries. Washington still refuses to cooperate not only at the OPCW, but also on the issue of nuclear weapons. In particular, the United States has rejected Moscow's proposal to adhere to the fundamentals of the New START Treaty for another year. Discussing these issues separately from the Ukrainian track would reduce global tensions and lay the basis for continued negotiations on Ukraine.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Earthquake relief effort brings Venezuela, US closer together

In his keynote address marking the 250th anniversary of the United States on Saturday, President Donald Trump touted his country’s achievements in Iran and Venezuela. Previously, recollections of the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who was indicted on several felony counts, including narco-terrorism, have provoked angry comments from the country’s current authorities. However, there is no official comment now. The Bolivarian Republic is working to clear the aftermath of a powerful earthquake with a death toll nearing 3,000. More than 2,000 US troops are taking part in the relief effort as the United States cooperates only with the current government that is heir to Maduro, not with the opposition in Venezuela.

The United States which used to take every opportunity to destabilize the situation in Venezuela previously, has now sent its troops to assist the republic. Washington is not evidently going to support Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado who has been struggling to return to Venezuela.

The US military, which is conducting operations to deliver humanitarian assistance, is making a substantial contribution to clearing the aftermath. More than 900 US personnel are working inside Venezuela and another roughly 800 are supporting relief operations in Puerto Rico and Curacao, General Francis Donovan, the commander of US Southern Command (US Southern Command), told Reuters. According to him, the US has also deployed at least four or five MQ-9 Reaper drones over Venezuela to make the intelligence picture clearer for Venezuelan authorities. The US military will leave the country "when we’re done," Donovan said.

"The United States has maintained quite a constructive relationship with the [Delcy] Rodriguez government. This does not mean that it fully controls it, but the current Venezuelan authorities are collaborating with the Americans. It is not in Washington’s interests here to put undue pressure on the Rodriguez government. At that, Machado remains a trump card for the United States anyway and Washington can play it, if need be. It simply does not need to do so for the time being," Dmitry Rozental, director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Latin American Studies, explained to Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

 

Kommersant: CNY exchange trade reaches record 2.75 trillion rubles in June

Estimates by Kommersant based on a survey of market participants show that last month, the total volume of yuan exchange trades for tomorrow's delivery stood at 2.75 trillion rubles ($35.7 bln), a 16% increase from the previous month and a 75% rise from the previous year. Taking into account the increased number of trading sessions, the average daily figure has risen by 65% year-on-year to 131 billion rubles ($1.7 bln). The result is one of the best over the past two years, which was surpassed only by the figures in March (144 billion rubles) and in June (141.4 billion rubles).

"The FX demand for hedging might grow in June amid the worsening geopolitics, the hawkish results of the CBR meeting, and the sell-off in the stock and bond markets," chief analyst at Sovcombank Mikhail Vasilyev noted. According to Head of Analytics at Zenit Bank Vladimir Yevstifeyev, the negative dynamics of the stock market may have driven up the demand for currency, including from major institutional investors.

Market participants expect trading activity to subside in July. "The moderate pressure on the ruble will persist, therefore the USD may test the level of 80 rubles/$1," Yevstifeyev noted. And Vasilyev expects the dollar to trade between 76 rubles and 82 rubles/$1, with the yuan fluctuating between 11.2 and 12.1 rubles/CNY.

 

Media: OPEC+ members agree to production hike from August

On Sunday, the seven OPEC+ members, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, decided to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day. This, the oil cartel announced following the July 5 meeting, will take the countries’ total oil production quota next month to 36.019 million bpd. Saudi Arabia and Russia, which lead OPEC+, will be able to boost output from next month by 62,000 bpd to 10.416 million bpd and 9.887 million bpd respectively.

The latest decision by OPEC+ will not have a major impact on either Russia or the global oil market, experts argue. "The official quota increase has been stable for a fifth consecutive month amid the decision, outlined by OPEC+ earlier, to raise the total oil output quota by 1.65 million bpd, Kirill Bakhtin, head of the center for Russian stock analysis at BCS World of Investment, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. According to him, the situation around oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz matters more to the global market, while oil output volumes that have lagged behind the official quota over the past few months matter more to Russia.

Energy expert Kirill Rodionov explained to Kommersant that the decision by OPEC+ builds on the strategy of soft quota increases that the oil producers pursued during the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to his estimates, from February to August, the total quota increased by approximately 940,000 bpd, comparable to Algeria's quota or Oman's production.

Rodionov forecasts that Brent will still be hovering near $60 per barrel in Q4. By that time, he continued, transit through the Hormuz Strait will return to normal, and escalation risks in the Middle East will subside following the election in Israel in October. Andrey Polishchuk, Senior Analyst for the Oil and Gas and Transport Sectors at Euler, expects that the easing of restrictions will continue at the same pace until September, after which a pause is likely before OPEC+ members resume the quota reduction policy, if demand growth expectations materialize.

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