MOSCOW, June 10. /TASS/. Russia may allow Western countries to use its Northern Sea Route, and experts weigh in on the outcome of Sunday’s election in Armenia. Meanwhile, Patriarch Theophilos III of Jerusalem is headed to Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. These stories topped Wednesday's headlines in Russia.

 

Izvestia: Russia to allow West to use its Northern Sea Route

Russia will not ban Western countries from using its Northern Sea Route (NSR), Minister for the Development of the Russian Far East and Arctic Alexey Chekunkov told Izvestia. According to him, the situation in the Middle East may lead to increased shipments via the NSR, with, say, China planning to raise its freight transit through it to 20 million metric tons by 2030. Experts believe that the United States and Europe, too, could seek transit of energy and raw materials using the shipping corridor. Meanwhile, Russia is planning to build 10 new nuclear-powered icebreakers and deploy a space system to develop the NSR.

Further down the road, Europe and the United States could theoretically take an interest in the NSR as a backup and partially faster Asia-Europe/North America route, Pavel Anisimov, Deputy Director of the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences at Russian State Humanitarian University, or RGGU, told Izvestia. He noted that the higher the risks of blocking or destabilizing flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, the more valuable alternative routes become for global players. "Primarily, energy resources (LNG or oil), raw materials and, in the future, high-speed container shipping may be of interest if Russia ensures year-round navigation and predictable tariffs," the expert argued. According to him, Western traffic overall has been hampered by geopolitics, including sanctions, a legal dispute over the status of the route, costly icebreaker escorts and environmental issues.

Political analyst Denis Denisov maintained that the use of the NSR by Western countries could be negotiated after resolving the Ukraine conflict and key regional security issues. However, the NSR has the potential to serve as a major shipping route for the West, he added.

In the short term, Western countries may request Russia’s approval to use the NSR only in a critical situation, for example, if all logistics routes through the Middle East are closed. Perhaps this issue will be raised if talks on the normalization of Russia’s relations with the EU and the United States are held in the future. Meanwhile, Russia has so far fully reoriented international transit along the NSR to China, India, and the UAE, which are actively increasing shipping in the region.

 

Vedomosti: Experts close to Kremlin weigh in on outcome of Armenian election

The government of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan aimed to paralyze the opposition’s organizational processes in the June 7 election, Areg Agasaryan, who heads the Center for International Interaction and Cooperation, said at a roundtable hosted by the Expert Institute of Social Research (EISR). According to him, the current Armenian authorities actively used force as they raided the offices of opposition parties every day, clamped down on supporters of the Armenian Apostolic Church to remove them from the electoral race, and directly threatened campaigning students and businessmen. For its part, the opposition was not consolidated, with most out of the 18 parties running simply seeking to pass the 2% threshold to qualify for public financing, Agasaryan continued. The pro-European policy course chosen by Pashinyan will inevitably run into the Turkish factor as Yerevan will increasingly draw Brussels’ interest in military terms in its ambitions to join the EU and be drawn into participating in proposed defensive alliances, the expert argued.

Given Turkey is NATO’s second-largest army, this may lead to Ankara becoming a security guarantor for Armenia, a scenario that Agasaryan dismissed as unlikely. In addition, the Armenian side would have to drop its claims against Turkey regarding the WWI-era genocide of the Armenian people carried out by the then Ottoman Empire. As regards Armenia’s membership of the EAEU, the expert told Vedomosti, the Eurasian Economic Union’s economy has been resilient, while Europe has been in recession, therefore Yerevan’s push for Europe is raising questions, especially since Armenia could serve as a link between the European and Eurasian economies as a member of the EAEU.

The Turkish case does not affect Armenia’s European integration, Stanislav Pritchin, head of the Central Asia section at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, argued. Despite a long history of interaction between Ankara and the EU, they are now extremely different in political and institutional terms, therefore Turkey cannot be viewed as a link to Europe for Yerevan, the expert said. Even as the EU has welcomed Armenia’s pivot away from Russia, this is not a condition for the country’s accession to the bloc, he explained.

The EU leadership does not expect to involve Armenia in its defense structures, Pritchin continued. Firstly, the bloc is still not self-sufficient here, with NATO remaining its core security instrument. Secondly, the Europeans are unwilling to take military commitments in the South Caucasus even as they are seeking to undermine Russia’s dominance there, the expert said. "This represents a challenge for Armenia, as the Europeans demand that it cut ties with Moscow without offering anything in exchange," he concluded.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Peacekeeper from Jerusalem headed to Moscow

Patriarch Theophilos III of Jerusalem may act as a mediator in ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine, the online edition of Yedioth Ahronoth reported, citing a White House meeting between US President Donald Trump and the Israeli patriarch on June 5. According to the Israeli daily, Theophilos was chosen in large part because he has close ties with Russia and is going to visit Moscow for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the next few days.

"The meeting was held amid Trump’s attempts to put an end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and lasted about 40 minutes. Among other issues, the patriarch’s potential role in establishing a channel for dialogue between Moscow and Kiev was discussed. Theophilos III is viewed as a figure who enjoys trust in both countries thanks to his status in the Orthodox world," the website argued.

The official website of the Jerusalem Patriarchate gave a different account of the meeting, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported. According to it, Theophilos III met with Trump in Washington to "discuss the protection of the authentic Christian presence in the Holy Land and the broader Middle East." "His Beatitude awarded President Trump the Grand Cross of the Order of the Knights of the Holy Sepulchre, one of the highest honors of the Jerusalem Patriarchate, which has profound spiritual significance," the statement on the website reads.

Even as the meeting did not focus on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, the topic interested Trump the most in light of the patriarch’s upcoming visit to Russia. People close to Theophilos III believe that the US leader is thus seeking notable progress in at least one global conflict. According to them, any progress on the Ukrainian track could improve Washington’s strategic priorities elsewhere.

A potential meeting between Theophilos III and Putin will not be their first: in 2013, the Russian leader received the head of the Jerusalem Patriarchate in Sochi, the two met at the Kremlin in 2019, and in January 2020, the patriarch attended a meeting in Jerusalem between the Russian head of state, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the mother of an Israeli woman detained at a Moscow airport.

 

Izvestia: Russia may increase oil exports to China by 25%

The current difficulties facing global energy markets may allow Russia to increase oil supplies to China by 25% this year compared with 2025, experts interviewed by Izvestia argue. In 2025, Russia sold 100 million metric tons of oil to China, according to Tamara Safonova, associate professor at the Institute of Economics, Mathematics and Information Technology at the Presidential Academy. In February alone, estimates from Vortexa Analytics show, seaborne shipments reached a record 2.1 million barrels per day, said Mikhail Nikitin, head of International Business and Finance Practice and a partner at 5D Consulting. By the end of 2026, Russian oil exports to China may increase by 20% to 25% compared to last year, he predicted.

Increased exports will be maintained throughout this year, Khadzhimurad Belkharoyev, an expert at the Institute of World Economy and Business (IMEB), Faculty of Economics at RUDN University, argued. Given favorable conditions, by the end of the year, Russia will be able to raise supplies by more than 50-60% from 2025, he maintained. According to the analyst, China bought oil from Iran because it was affordable price-wise, with Tehran being under sanctions, and China importing crude at a discount. Under the current circumstances, Beijing can only increase supplies from Russia, he concluded.

Simultaneously with reorienting to China, Russia could potentially enter "unfriendly" markets, experts said. According to the Financial Times, in late May, US crude and petroleum inventories shrank by 10.6 million barrels to 1.57 billion barrels, or the lowest since 2004. Even as the United States thus compensated for losses from the Middle East, this buffer is not infinite.

This economic situation has created favorable conditions for Russia: last month, Japan’s Taiyo Oil received its first oil shipment under the Sakhalin 2 project since the crisis began, Mikhail Nikitin noted. The shipment was made as Japanese companies Mitsui and Mitsubishi have maintained their shares in the project. The expert estimates that the likelihood of Japan and other Asian markets buying more Russian oil in the next six to 12 months is quite high.

While there have already been precedents for such deals, a complete revival of relations will require de-escalation or the lifting of sanctions, Anton Sviridenko, executive director of the Stolypin Institute for the Economy of Growth, warned.

 

Kommersant: EU may move to restrict fish imports from Russia

The European Union may impose restrictions on Russian fishery shipments, in particular, a complete ban on cod supplies. Russian fisheries could lose a share of up to 13.6% of the export market in value terms. The resulting volumes will be likely redirected to China which, given its growing share of exports, could dictate prices for Russian commodities.

The EU’s 21st package of anti-Russian sanctions could include major restrictions on fishery imports from Russia, including a ban on cod, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on June 9. She explained that fisheries have been one of the sectors largely unaffected by sanctions. The EC is also set to impose trade restrictions on Belarus, banning it as a route for Russian fish exports. The latest sanctions can be imposed upon approval from the EU Council.

Fish has been an important area of Russian agricultural exports. According to data from the Federal Agency for Fisheries (Rosrybolovstvo), in 2025, fish accounted for 14.7% of all agricultural exports. The share increased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year. And the EU has been a key market for these products. The United States and Norway are Russia's main competitors in the European market in these categories.

Alexander Fomin, executive director of the Association of Fish Market Production and Trading Enterprises, explained to Kommersant that a ban on cod exports to European countries will likely lead to a significant increase in its price abroad. According to Alexander Savelyev, Head of the Fisheries Information Agency, there are no other major cod suppliers in the world.

According to Fomin, Russian cod and pollock exports destined for Europe will be redirected to China. Fish exports to other Asian countries are growing, but consumption volumes are not as high, he noted. At the same time, exports to Africa are growing, but these have mostly involved low-cost products, such as pollock. Savelyev also cites Japan and South Korea as important markets.

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