MOSCOW, June 9. /TASS/. The US seeks to maintain its leading role in the Middle East settlement process; NATO kicks off a large-scale military exercise near Russia's border; and Armenia is likely to continue the same policy after parliamentary elections. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Media: US seeks to maintain leading role in Middle East settlement process

Israel and Iran are on the brink of another full-scale clash, following days of limited but painful exchange of strikes, Izvestia notes.

Political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev points out that the latest round of tensions in the Middle East may cause political damage to the United States as it seeks the role of the chief mediator between the opposing parties. "It is a set of not-so-fortunate circumstances that the current round of escalation comes at a time when the US is actively trying to settle its own disputes with Tehran and work out a permanent guarantee framework. In this regard, the rise in violence is at least troubling for Washington, which has faced a lot of both military and financial problems, along with domestic political issues, due to its involvement in the Iran gamble," the expert specified.

The situation remains uncertain. Despite US President Donald Trump’s promises to keep developments in the Middle East under control, tensions continue to escalate. Moreover, the parties to the conflict find it increasingly difficult to confine themselves to symbolic strikes, raising the risk of intensified hostilities. Under such circumstances, the US is faced with a choice: bring other influential mediators into the process and reduce its own contribution, or keep working alone and risk being left with no deal at all.

The latest round of confrontation between Iran and Israel provides Trump with the opportunity to increase pressure on Iran, Pavel Koshkin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Vedomosti. In the expert’s view, the situation is forcing Trump to abandon efforts to promote peace and opt for escalation. "It will now be more difficult for the US president to maintain balance," Koshkin stressed. According to him, the current developments highlight Trump’s limited ability to influence the course of the conflict and the policies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The US is ready to resume military operations but it is eager to avoid doing so, Alexey Yurk, researcher with the Center for Middle East Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, believes. The expert regards a prolongation of the negotiation process as the choice the Trump administration is most likely to make at the current stage.

 

Izvestia: NATO kicks off large-scale military exercises near Russia's border

The North Atlantic Alliance has kicked off a large-scale live-fly exercise, dubbed Ramstein Flag 2026. Over 200 aircraft from 18 countries of the bloc are performing missions in European airspace on June 8-19. The northern component of the drills, deployed in the immediate vicinity of Russia’s border, has drawn close attention from military experts. Russia regards the Ramstein Flag 2026 exercise as direct preparations for a potential global conflict and has already taken retaliatory steps, enhancing monitoring activities, Izvestia reports.

According to military expert Boris Dzhereliyevsky, the fact that the single concept of the drills has a northern and southern component carries both geopolitical and military significance. "Spain has been chosen to be the southern hub for a reason. As the EU announces plans to focus on the Mediterranean Sea in terms of blocking vessels carrying Russian oil, it is easier for the alliance to practice such operations there. The Spanish part of the drills is highly likely to involve air support for missions aimed at intercepting and escorting ships," he explained.

Apart from tactical goals, the exercise also has a logistics aspect, military expert Vadim Kozyukin pointed out. Everybody knows that Europe is actively investing in programs to upgrade transport infrastructure, expanding roads and increasing the load-bearing capacity and durability of bridges. The current drills mark a practical test. "NATO countries also need to assess ways for military cargo to move freely across EU borders and the level of harmonization in bureaucratic procedures," he noted.

The second key objective is to ensure combat coordination and test connections between military formations from different countries. The scenario of the drills will inevitably be adjusted to reflect current realities. The North Atlantic Alliance is carefully assessing the experience of military operations in Ukraine and learning from it. NATO countries are now revising their military concepts and these drills will definitely show them integrating new tactical approaches and testing updated doctrines, the expert concluded.

 

Media: Armenia to continue its policy after parliamentary elections

Armenia’s current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is all set to form a one-party government for the third time since 2018, Vedomosti notes.

Pashinyan’s party managed to win the country’s parliamentary elections due to its aggressive campaign and the use of administrative resources, said Hrant Mikaelyan, a researcher with the Caucasus Institute. The authorities sought to create an atmosphere of fear in Armenian society, detaining hundreds of opposition activists and attempting to remove parties from the election lists. According to the political scientist, support for the ruling party from Western countries and Turkey also influenced the outcome.

After the election, Yerevan will continue its foreign policy drift toward the West, Armenian political scientist Karen Igityan believes. That said, the country risks ending up caught in a geopolitical confrontation between the West and Russia, as well as between the West and Iran, the expert cautioned.

According to political scientist Johnny Melikyan, Yerevan will continue pursuing a policy of balancing between major international actors, advancing efforts toward European integration while preserving cooperation within the Eurasian Economic Union.

Meanwhile, the lack of a constitutional majority and further polarization in society may lead to protests in Armenia, Sergey Margulis, associate professor with the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at the Institute of Social Sciences of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, told Izvestia. "Everything will depend on how coordinated the opposition will be in its actions. In general, people are ready to take to the streets," he noted.

Polarization in Armenian society is unprecedented, said Dmitry Sidorov, head of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at Moscow State Linguistic University. According to him, almost all the leading political forces are dissatisfied with the election outcome: the premier’s Civil Contract party won’t have a constitutional majority, while opposition groups - the Strong Armenia party and the Armenia bloc - argue that the final results do not reflect the actual political reality.

 

Izvestia: Middle East crisis creates another threat to global trade

Yemeni Houthis have joined the latest round of tensions in the Middle East. The Bab al-Mandab Strait, a strategic waterway through which about 15% of global trade passes, is now facing the threat of a blockade. Experts warn that the Houthis are capable of undermining shipping in the Red Sea, creating further disruptions in global logistics, Izvestia writes.

Andrey Yashlavsky, leading researcher with the Institute of World Economy and International Relations at the Russian Academy of Sciences, points out that although it’s not certain that the Houthis will close the Bab al-Mandab Strait to shipping traffic, the very threat is increasing pressure on participants in diplomatic talks.

The threat could have a major economic impact, Andrey Smirnov, stock market expert at BCS World of Investment, noted. First of all, insurance premiums for cargo transportation through the strait should be expected to rise. Even if they increase only slightly, to 0.5-1% of the cargo value, a single trip by a large container ship or tanker will become hundreds of thousands of dollars more expensive.

"Different countries will have to face different consequences, but in most cases, the impact will be negative. Exporters risk losing some of their budget revenues and foreign exchange earnings. As for importers, they will be forced to compete for a smaller volume of essential goods, which is going to push prices and budget expenditures further higher," the expert stressed. Overall, in the analyst’s words, this could slow global economic growth while accelerating inflation and increasing the debt burden.

However, experts interviewed by the newspaper doubt that Iran will resort to such a tool at this particular moment. A full closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait would hit not only Israel but global trade as a whole. This is why Tehran would benefit more from using the threat of a blockade as leverage in talks rather than from actually closing the route.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Europe increases Russian gas purchases

As is known, the European Union has declared its goal of fully abandoning Russian gas purchases. However, as gas supplies declined due to the ongoing US-Israeli operation in the Middle East, EU countries have been forced to reconsider their attitude to Russian gas, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.

Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports by European Union countries rose by 21% in May compared to the same month last year, while gas imports from Middle Eastern countries fell to zero for the first time on record, the paper reports, citing Bruegel data. Also, Russian gas exports to Europe via the TurkStream pipeline rose by 6.5% in the January-May period.

The transit of Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine was terminated in early 2025 due to Kiev’s actions. The issue of filling underground gas storage sites has since become more complicated as the EU now has to supply gas not only to its own consumers but also to sites in Ukraine.

London is among those that continue to strongly criticize Russia and insist on tougher sanctions. However, in May, the British government postponed until January 1, 2027 a ban on services, including insurance, related to the maritime transportation of Russian LNG. According to officials, the measure is aimed at protecting consumers and ensuring the reliability of fuel supplies, as the Middle East conflict is driving up energy prices.

China is also stepping up Russian gas purchases. In particular, according to the country’s General Administration of Customs, Russian LNG imports rose by 16% between January and April. As for Turkey, its Energy Market Regulatory Authority has so far only released March import data but the figures look rather impressive, showing that Russian supplies went up by 42.5% in a single month.

Statistics indicate that global demand for Russian gas is on the rise. The trend can be expected to persist because LNG supplies from Qatar are unlikely to return to pre-war levels in the near future.

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