MOSCOW, June 4. /TASS/. The Middle East risks plunging into a new war with the US and Iran exchanging strikes; Moscow retaliates as Kiev steps up attacks on Russian civilian targets; and global food crisis risks rise once again. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Media: Middle East risks plunging into new war

The United States and Iran still favor the use of military pressure over diplomatic means. The ceasefire that was declared in the Persian Gulf region in early April is on the verge of collapse, Vedomosti writes.

In the early hours of June 3, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked Kuwait International Airport, a US-linked oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, the headquarters of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, and an airbase of an undisclosed country. According to Iran’s military, this came in retaliation for US strikes on an Iranian oil vessel and drone control facilities.

Iran seeks to employ military tools to compel the US to make compromises in talks, Yury Lyamin, senior researcher at the Center for Strategies and Technologies, believes. The current US administration views restraint and willingness to accept concessions as signs of weakness, which only encourage it to put more pressure on the opponent, the expert noted. In his view, this is why Tehran is trying to respond to any US acts of provocation in order to make Washington agree to at least a temporary ceasefire.

Iran is still committed to ending the armed conflict with the US, Ilya Vaskin, junior researcher at the Higher School of Economics’ Center for the Study of the Middle East, Caucasus and Central Asia, emphasized. However, given the Donald Trump administration's unpredictability and the lack of time for negotiations, Tehran is running out of effective incentives to reach an agreement, the expert said: "A real opportunity for stability in the Middle East will emerge only after Trump’s presidential term is over."

Grigory Lukyanov, deputy dean of the Oriental Studies Department at the State Academic University for the Humanities and a researcher with the Center of Arab and Islamic Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, explained to Izvestia that there is still room for engagement between Iran and the US but the negotiation process remains in a gray zone between war and peace. To some extent, it is a stalemate that makes it impossible for either party to achieve its goals without making genuine compromises and concessions, which are essential for negotiations, the expert concluded.

 

Izvestia: Moscow retaliates as Kiev intensifies attacks on Russian civilian targets

Kiev has significantly stepped up strikes on Russian civilian facilities. In the early hours of June 3, drones attacked a public bus in the city of Yenakiyevo, killing seven people. Earlier, a strike on an academic building and a dorm in Starobelsk claimed 21 lives. In response, Moscow carries out retaliatory strikes on Ukraine’s infrastructure, energy, and defense industry sites. Additionally, Russia is working to establish a tribunal for prosecuting Ukrainian criminals, the Foreign Ministry’s Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia.

According to Oleg Karpovich, department head at the Diplomatic Academy of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Russia is experiencing "unprecedented terrorist attacks on civilians and non-military facilities by the Kiev regime." The reason Ukraine is carrying out such strikes is that it is facing setbacks on the battlefield and is seeking to force Moscow to take tough countermeasures, which could help secure additional support from NATO countries.

St. Petersburg University Professor Natalya Yeryomina believes that the establishment of public tribunals could help break the information blockade. If ordinary people in Europe and the US learn about the Ukrainian military’s crimes, the Kiev leadership would come under additional pressure. Brussels and Washington will have to try to explain why NATO so strongly supports the Ukrainian authorities who target civilian facilities. This could become a turning point, making Ukraine engage more constructively in the negotiation process with Russia, which is currently stalled.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's initiatives aimed at involving its European partners in the process aren’t contributing to the resumption of talks, said Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government. The leaders of the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and the Scandinavian nations -- named by Vladimir Zelensky as potential participants in the process -- have in recent years positioned themselves as parties to the conflict by unconditionally backing Ukraine. Denisov argues that under such circumstances, the sides are unlikely to come any closer to a diplomatic solution to the conflict. "Still, it would be incorrect to say that freezing the negotiations is the only way out. At this point, their resumption depends largely on developments on the battlefield," he concluded.

 

Vedomosti: Global food crisis risks increase once again

The risk of a renewed global food crisis has significantly increased due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, experts interviewed by Vedomosti said. The reasons include rising fuel and fertilizer prices, disruptions to logistics routes, stringent protectionist measures, and high food inflation.

If the conflict in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz closure persist into mid-summer, the global number of people suffering from hunger may rise substantially, Anatoly Tikhonov, director of the Center for Agribusiness and Food Security at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, pointed out.

Disruptions in fertilizer output and supply are a key factor behind the food crisis, experts note. According to Nadezhda Orlova, director of the Institute for Agrarian Studies at the Higher School of Economics, the production of nitrogen fertilizers requires gas, while maritime routes are crucial for international trade, and both have been affected by the conflict in the Middle East.

Restrictions concerning fertilizer supplies cannot be viewed as a short-term shock, Oleg Kobyakov, director of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Russia Liaison Office, insists. If the Hormuz Strait blockade drags on, it could create long-term risks for the food industry, he said.

Orlova outlined several key factors for resolving the global hunger issue. These particularly include open food trade and a reduction in export restrictions, which are hitting import-dependent countries hard. The expert also highlighted the need to boost logistics stability, as the effectiveness of alternative routes depends on accessible infrastructure, funding, and coordination between countries. In addition, stability in the fertilizer market must also be restored.

"Global food security cannot recover on its own, through market forces alone. The process requires political will, cooperation, and an end to the perception of food as a weapon. Otherwise, the Russian Academy of Sciences' forecast of 660 million people affected by hunger will become a reality for one in ten people worldwide," Tikhonov warned.

 

Media: Tanzanian president’s visit marks Russian diplomatic victory in Africa

Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan is currently on a state visit to Russia. The country is ready to facilitate Russia’s trade with East African nations through the Indian Ocean port of Dar es Salaam, a member of the Tanzanian delegation told Izvestia.

As one of the fastest-developing African economies, Tanzania is a major regional hub, Vsevolod Sviridov, deputy director of the Higher School of Economics' Center for African Studies, told the paper. "It’s very important that in recent years, Russia has gained an increasing number of such partners in Africa because it brings stability to our relations with the region," he said.

Samia’s visit to Russia marks a Russian diplomatic victory in Africa, with Tanzania being among the allies that make Moscow stronger, Andrey Maslov, director of the Center for African Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told Vedomosti. According to him, the two countries are building cooperation on a mutually beneficial basis because Tanzania has no need for external assistance. The country is among the continent’s economic leaders, boasting high growth rates, a stable political situation, and a friendly attitude towards Russia.

Russia’s interest in Tanzania is largely rooted in its geographical position and access to the Indian Ocean. The port of Dar es Salaam is seen as a key transport hub in East Africa, Maya Nikolskaya, head of Moscow State Institute of International Relations' program for African studies, noted.

Nuclear energy can become another important area of cooperation. Last year, Russia’s Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation launched a pilot project to produce and process uranium in Tanzania. Izvestia has learned that the African nation is quite interested in Rosatom’s participation in the construction of a nuclear power plant. A delegation source said that Tanzania views Russia as the only partner capable of implementing such a project.

For Moscow, Tanzania is a promising logistics, investment, and political hub through which Russia could expand its presence in one of Africa’s fastest-growing regions.

 

Vedomosti: Analysts assess global economic impact of Middle East conflict

The conflict in the Middle East has become a key factor shaping global economic outlook, Vedomosti writes, citing a report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Analysts have outlined two potential scenarios amid unpredictable developments in the situation surrounding Iran. According to the first one, it will be possible to resolve the Middle East conflict soon. In that case, energy production and trade in the Gulf countries would gradually be restored to pre-conflict levels, and global GDP growth rates would increase. The second scenario is based on the assumption that the conflict would remain unresolved at least until late 2027. In such a situation, global energy and fertilizer prices would stay high for a long time, and financial conditions would be tightened considerably. This would lead to a decline in global GDP, recession risks and rising unemployment.

Anna Fedyunina, director of the Center for Structural Policy Studies at the Higher School of Economics, noted that "the escalation of tensions in the Middle East has long gone beyond bilateral differences over the Iranian nuclear program." Global trade has been affected by a sharp increase in shipping costs at key logistics hubs and constrained supplies of energy and fertilizers. The supply shock is now driving inflation expectations, which is prompting central banks across the world to pursue tougher monetary policies, Fedyunina explained.

She sees the negative scenario as more likely because conflicts in the Middle East are often protracted. According to Fedyunina, regardless of which scenario unfolds, Russia will neither suffer major losses nor gain substantial benefits. The analyst expects oil prices to remain high for a while, supporting the ruble and keeping inflation pressure at bay.

In both cases, Asian nations would be hit the hardest as they rely heavily on energy supplies from the Middle East. African nations would also be significantly affected. According to Tatyana Belyanchikova, associate professor with the Department of Global Financial Markets and Financial Technology at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, for African countries, "rising fertilizer and food prices are not a matter of inflation but survival."

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