MOSCOW, May 15. /TASS/. Trump and Xi’s latest talks aimed to cool US-China economic rivalry rather than make political pals out of the two powers; the corruption case against former Zelensky aide Andrey Yermak has fueled claims of a broader corruption network; and negotiations continue between Israel and Lebanon despite rising regional tensions and ongoing Israeli strikes. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Media: Will Trump-Xi meeting turn US, China from foes to friends?

Negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping were successful, according to both leaders, but right now there are no signs that ties between the United States and China will warm significantly, experts told Russian media. At this stage, Washington and Beijing are seeking only to stabilize relations in the economic sphere. Potential agreements in the field of AI microchips are also possible, even as said deals would help the United States gain ground in the high-tech market.

The United States understands that China is actively pursuing import substitution policies and, in many areas, no longer depends on American technologies, Alexey Maslov, Director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University, told Izvestia. According to him, the issue of chip supplies is not merely about trade, but also an element of strategic competition: the Americans do not want to hand over the Chinese market entirely to Chinese companies.

There can be no talk of any genuine rapprochement between the United States and China, Alexander Lomanov, Head of the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Izvestia. Beijing’s main objective is to stabilize relations and prevent any sharp deterioration. In essence, China’s proposal is to bring the rivalry under control by setting the agenda, the expert explained.

The United States puts pressure on China because, under conditions of fair competition, the Americans can’t keep up, political analyst and American studies expert Malek Dudakov told the newspaper. Washington is therefore forced to stage provocations, engage in military actions, and target China’s partners such as Venezuela and Iran in order to create problems for the Chinese economy, the expert concluded.

Meanwhile, the only serious lever the United States has to exert pressure on China is Taiwan, Maslov noted. However, Xi Jinping immediately warned Donald Trump about the risks of escalation.

"Trump wants to show that he is prepared to reduce the level of anti-China and pro-Taiwan rhetoric in exchange for a number of commitments, for example, expanding purchases of US agricultural products by hundreds of billions of dollars," Maslov concluded.

One of Xi’s goals in the negotiations was to convince Trump that their countries are capable of coexisting and that China’s growing power should not necessarily be perceived by the United States as a threat, Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told Vedomosti. In the Chinese leader’s view, the two countries must avoid military escalation around Taiwan, which could occur – and Xi stated this explicitly, making it an exceptionally important remark.

The expert agreed that Trump’s visit did not fundamentally alter the paradigm of relations between China and the United States: the two countries remain each other’s principal strategic rivals, but neither side is currently interested in escalation.

 

Izvestia: Case against Zelensky's right-hand man just tip of corruption iceberg

The case against former Vladimir Zelensky office head Andrey Yermak is an attempt to make him the fall guy so as to shield the rest of Kiev’s corrupt officials and those backing them in the West, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told Izvestia. According to her, the criminal chain includes not only members of the government, parliament, Western envoys, but also Zelensky himself. The head of the Kiev regime was aware of all the shadow schemes, experts believe.

On May 13, Ukraine’s High Anti-Corruption Court ordered former presidential office chief Andrey Yermak to be held in pre-trial detention for two months with the possibility of release on bail set at 140 mln hryvnias, or more than $3 mln.

"This is not even the tip of the iceberg. It is an operation to rescue the remaining Kiev corrupt officials and those standing behind them in the West," Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told Izvestia. "Everyone knows that this corruption chain consists of a huge number of links: Zelensky, his entire government, the parliament, Western envoys, and so on," she added.

Notably, Zelensky has so far refrained from commenting on the case involving his close associate. Only a muted reaction came from adviser Dmitry Litvin, who stated that it was still too early to draw conclusions while procedural actions were ongoing. Former Verkhovna Rada deputy Vladimir Oleynik believes that Zelensky’s wife Elena could become the next target of the investigation, while Zelensky himself could be a potential witness.

Former European Parliament member Gunnar Beck believes that the developments are unlikely to completely block Kiev’s path to the EU. At the same time, the situation has clearly resonated with the public.

"Media reports about corruption within Ukraine’s political leadership are influencing public opinion in the EU. Chancellor Merz’s recent statement that Kiev may not be able to join the EU in the near future can be interpreted as a consequence of growing skepticism among the German public regarding Ukraine’s EU membership," he told Izvestia.

 

Izvestia: Israel-Lebanon talks face growing strain amid regional tensions

The Middle East is once again teetering on the brink of escalation – at least that is the impression created by the overall dynamics of the Israel-Lebanon negotiations taking place in Washington, Izvestia writes. The Israelis continue to apply military pressure, with strikes against the Arab country continuing right up until the start of the talks. Tensions are also mounting inside Israel itself, where the ruling coalition was forced to initiate steps toward dissolving the Knesset and holding early elections amid opposition attempts to remove Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from office. Talk of the possible imminent resumption of hostilities against Iran has also been growing louder. Nevertheless, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that, although the conclusion of a long-term agreement remains unlikely, the situation is expected to remain on a peaceful track for now.

The air ahead of the third round of the "Washington format" talks, which began on May 14 and may continue into Friday, has become stale compared to previous rounds. Israeli strikes on May 13-14 killed 22 Lebanese civilians.

The very composition of the negotiators shows that the two sides define the goals of the settlement differently, political analyst Dastan Tokoldoshev told the newspaper. Israel tends to emphasize military aspects, while Lebanon prioritizes civilian issues.

"It is important for West Jerusalem to secure at least some degree of success on the foreign policy and military fronts, especially against the backdrop of internal contradictions, while also making efforts to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon and minimize the risks of clashes with pro-Iranian armed groups. Beirut, for its part, is seeking to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe and resolve the long-standing conflict through non-military means," the expert summarized.

"Against the backdrop of stalled peace talks with Iran, the United States needs some kind of diplomatic breakthrough, so a Lebanese-Israeli settlement fits the bill, especially since Lebanon’s official authorities are generally not opposed to it," Alexey Yurk, research fellow at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations’ Center for Middle Eastern Studies, told Izvestia.

At the same time, the expert cautioned against placing excessive hopes on resolving US-Iran tensions through Lebanon, because the issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament remains the main stumbling block between Israel and Lebanon, among other reasons. The sides have been unable to agree either on a timeline or on the format for implementing such a plan, even amid consistent pressure from Washington on both delegations.

 

Vedomosti: Global LNG market expected to remain in deficit until 2028, creating export opportunities for Russia

The supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the global market in 2026 will be 30-35 mln tons, or 8%, below previously expected levels, according to a report prepared by experts from the Center for Price Indices. In February, the Center’s baseline forecast projected that global LNG supply in 2026 would amount to 471 mln tons, while demand would total 462 mln tons. The agency now forecasts that global LNG demand this year will reach 444 mln tons, while supply will amount to only 441 mln tons. As a result, the market will face a fuel deficit of three mln tons. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that prolonged global LNG shortages and elevated gas prices could allow Russia to modestly increase LNG exports in 2026.

The Center for Price Indices estimates cumulative losses in global supply caused by the armed conflict in the Middle East in 2026-2030 at 105 mln tons. As a result, the transition toward a stable surplus in the LNG market is being delayed by two years, analysts noted. According to the agency, the global LNG deficit in 2025 amounted to around two mln tons.

The global LNG deficit in 2026-2027 creates conditions for increasing LNG exports from Russia, the report said. In particular, experts expect higher shipments from Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 plant, though they did not specify exact estimates. Increased shipments will become possible due to the operation of the ice-class gas carrier Alexey Kosygin, the agency explained.

Russian LNG producers are also benefiting from rising market gas prices, the report noted. Gas prices on the European spot market in March and April consistently exceeded $500 per 1,000 cubic meters and at one point reached as high as $888 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to ICE exchange data.

Experts agree that Russia may indeed take advantage of the situation and increase LNG supplies to the global market in 2026. Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Aricapital Management Company, told Vedomosti that shipments this year could rise by 10% to 33.3 mln tons. In his view, more substantial growth remains unlikely due to logistical challenges and a shortage of gas carriers.

 

Kommersant: Russia’s Middle East fuel oil exports surge amid regional conflict, refining disruptions

Russia significantly increased fuel oil exports to Middle Eastern countries in April amid the regional conflict and problems affecting local refining operations. At the same time, Russia’s overall exports of petroleum products remain under pressure due to lower refinery utilization rates and restrictions on gasoline exports, although diesel fuel shipments are continuing to grow. Analysts believe that both production and exports of petroleum products could increase as the number of seasonal and unscheduled refinery maintenance outages declines, Kommersant writes.

According to a review by the Center for Price Indices, Russia increased seaborne exports of fuel oil to Middle Eastern countries by 45% in April compared to March, reaching 900,000 tons. Year-on-year, the figure rose by 98%. The bulk of supplies was directed to Saudi Arabian ports on the Red Sea. Analysts attributed the increase to the partial replacement of lost petroleum product volumes amid the ongoing conflict in the region.

At the same time, S&P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS) also reported an increase in Russian petroleum product shipments to the region in April. Supplies to Egypt rose by 129% compared to March, reaching 498,700 barrels per day (bpd), while shipments to Turkey increased by 43% to 441,500 bpd. According to data from the Center for Price Indices, around 500,000 tons of Russian diesel fuel were en route in early May for transshipment at Egyptian ports.

Fuel oil supplies are partially compensating Russian oil companies for their inability to export gasoline, Maxim Shaposhnikov, adviser to the managing director of the Industrial Code fund told Kommersant. According to him, buyers are using fuel oil for refining into gasoline, which they are receiving in insufficient quantities because of disruptions in the Persian Gulf.

Diesel fuel shipments from Russian ports increased by 5% in April compared to the previous month, reaching 3.3 mln tons, the Center for Price Indices review said. The volume of STS (ship-to-ship) transshipments rose by 107% month-on-month to 280,000 tons. As the Center noted, despite accidents at major export terminals in the Baltic region, Russian companies are maintaining substantial shipment levels due to high fuel prices on global markets.

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