MOSCOW, May 6. /TASS/. Russia expects Ukraine to stage provocations ahead of Victory Day; the US is on the verge of launching new massive strikes against Iran; and the attacks on the UAE are affecting oil prices. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Media: Russia prepares for new Ukrainian provocations ahead of Victory Day

The Ukrainian authorities may stage provocations on their own territory during the May 8-9 ceasefire in order to blame Moscow, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated. Despite its allegedly peaceful rhetoric, Kiev shows no desire to end the conflict. The day before, Russian air defenses thwarted one of the largest Ukrainian attacks, shooting down six Flamingo missiles and 601 drones. Experts believe that the Kiev regime is deliberately seeking to disrupt the Victory Day parade, as it symbolizes the joint struggle of the peoples of Russia, the US, Europe, and Ukraine against Nazism.

Ukraine is demonstrating a reluctance to end the conflict peacefully, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large for the crimes of the Kiev regime Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. "Despite the pseudo-peaceful rhetoric, actions speak much louder and more clearly about Ukraine’s true attitude toward peaceful agreements and a diplomatic settlement. Therefore, this is a clear challenge and an attempt to demonstrate its complete unwillingness to end the conflict by peaceful means," the diplomat said.

During the Victory Day celebrations, Kiev may attempt to carry out various types of terrorist attacks, including but not limited to raids, Miroshnik pointed out. He also does not rule out provocations on Ukrainian territory during the ceasefire declared by Russia to blame Moscow. "The risks are very high, given the political leadership’s approach. This is not what lower-level commanders want, but it is Zelensky's and his advisors' strategy. For them, these holidays are openly hostile and frightening. The ideology of Victory Day reminds us who follows Nazism or tries to revive Hitlerite approaches and who is on the right side of history. For the Kiev regime, this is particularly frightening," Miroshnik emphasized.

Earlier, the Russian Defense Ministry warned that if the Kiev regime attempts to disrupt the 81st anniversary celebration of Victory Day, the Russian Armed Forces will launch a massive retaliatory missile strike on the center of Kiev. "These are not just words; this is a clear signal. Russia is ready for any turn of events but is giving a final chance to avoid disaster. This is a direct response to Zelensky’s insolence. In Yerevan, in front of European leaders, he said that Ukrainian drones would be present at the parade on Red Square," military expert Viktor Litovkin told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. According to the expert, any weapon could be used for this purpose, ranging from the Iskander missile to the Oreshnik missile. "We have plenty of options. The presidential administration building on Bankovaya Street, the Rada, and other key targets in central Kiev could easily be destroyed if we wanted to," he added.

"Russia has long understood that talking to Kiev about anything is pointless," military expert Alexey Leonkov stressed. "Zelensky is living in some kind of parallel reality where the desire of a war veteran’s grandson to stage a show of a Ukrainian military drone raid on Moscow on May 9 is considered normal. If he doesn’t understand the language of reason, Russia will speak to him in the language of force, the language of missiles," he concluded.

 

Vedomosti: US nears launching new massive strikes against Iran

A new phase of military escalation, including large-scale strikes on Iranian territory, appears most likely if no progress is made in the negotiations between Washington and Tehran, experts say. Expectations of renewed hostilities intensified on the very first day of Project Freedom, which US President Donald Trump announced on the night of May 4. The operation is aimed at ensuring the safe passage of ships blocked in the Persian Gulf.

The likelihood of renewed US-Israeli strikes against Iran remains very high, although this is not particularly beneficial for Trump, Pavel Koshkin, a senior researcher at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. According to the expert, the US leader’s latest threats against Tehran are part of his plan to create the illusion of control over the situation. "Trump is in a very vulnerable position. He wants to act from a position of strength, but if war with Iran were to resume, the president’s domestic political standing would weaken further," he said.

Another argument in favor of Trump’s desire to delay a sharp resumption of attacks is the rate at which US weapons stockpiles are being depleted. According to data from US analysts, over the course of several weeks, the Americans have used up between 30% and 80% of their stockpiles of various types of strike and anti-missile weapons.

However, even Tehran is unsure how to resolve the current situation, Ivan Bocharov, program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council, emphasized. At the same time, he believes that Tehran understands its demands for the lifting of sanctions, official permission to develop its nuclear program, and security guarantees are unlikely to be met. "Iran is acting primarily reactively, adapting to changes in the situation. Increased pressure from the US, including around the Strait of Hormuz, is perceived as an attempt at coercion. Iran views its own countermeasures, including demonstratively tough signals, as a forced reaction. Tehran is ready to maintain a state of chronic tension, avoiding both a full-scale war and a lasting peace," Bocharov added. If hostilities cease without a political settlement, Iran will most likely continue to use the Strait of Hormuz as a tool of pressure. Changing this position will require significant external pressure or substantial concessions from the US, he concluded.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: How attacks on UAE affecting oil prices

Following Iran’s missile and drone strikes on the Port of Fujairah in the UAE, as well as a nearby oil refinery, global oil prices briefly surged to $119 per barrel. Rather than releasing tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf, as the US had promised and the market had expected, a new threat arose: the potential suspension of oil exports from the UAE.

Compared to other countries dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE has fared quite well. Its oil exports have declined by only 23%. All this is thanks to the infrastructure of the Port of Fujairah. According to Maxim Malkov, a Kept partner and head of the firm’s oil and gas practice, Fujairah is one of two remaining open export ports for Gulf countries, the other being the Saudi port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. The port can ship approximately 1.8-2.0 million barrels per day, which is a substantial volume under current conditions, he told Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

In addition, Fujairah is one of the world’s largest centers for storing, blending, and bunkering marine fuel, Ivan Timonin, a senior manager at the Implementa consulting firm, said. The spike in Brent prices is a reaction not only to the current damage but also to the increased likelihood of disruptions in physical deliveries, insurance, freight, and marine fuel. The threat is not just to a single terminal, but to the infrastructure that was intended to ensure the supply of oil and petroleum products from the Persian Gulf in the event of problems in the Strait of Hormuz.

However, oil prices reacted not only to the actual damage inflicted on the port. According to Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, the attack on Fujairah represents an escalation of the conflict. In fact, the market received a signal that the end of the Middle East crisis is still far off.

As for those affected, Timonin emphasized that the largest buyers of UAE crude oil are Asian countries, particularly Japan, Thailand, China, India, and South Korea. However, the degree of dependence varies. Japan and Thailand are the most vulnerable. Buyers face risks not only from the potential loss of feedstock for refineries but also from disruptions in the logistics of petroleum products, including storage, blending, and bunkering at one of the largest oil hubs outside the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Izvestia: Germany revises its military aid program for Ukraine

Germany is restructuring its military aid programs for Ukraine. Berlin is now prioritizing the delivery of a large quantity of long-range drones to the Ukrainian armed forces. At the same time, the authorities no longer see a need to send Taurus missiles to Kiev. Germany is actively funding the production of military equipment in Ukraine or at joint ventures located in the country. Experts are confident that Berlin will continue to support the Ukrainian military despite the growing social crisis.

Germany has begun to focus on providing the Ukrainian armed forces with a large-scale supply of long-range drones, Russian Ambassador to Berlin Sergey Nechayev told Izvestia. "Berlin is transforming its military aid programs. In addition to directly transferring weapons and military equipment, Berlin is financing the production of military-grade products in Ukraine and at joint ventures in Germany. Berlin is now primarily focusing on providing the Ukrainian military with a large-scale supply of long-range drones and their components," the diplomat told Izvestia. "It is telling that, while denying accusations of turning Ukraine into a war zone, Germany is, by all accounts, on a course toward preparing for a military confrontation with Russia. This entails accelerated militarization, expansion of the armed forces, and increased pumping of budgetary and borrowed funds into the military sector," Nechaev emphasized.

The agreements between Ukraine and Germany, dated April 14, stipulate that Berlin will continue to support Ukraine’s "drone industry" and develop joint drone production. Despite its extensive support for Kiev, Berlin does not yet intend to supply the Ukrainian armed forces with Taurus long-range missiles, the German embassy in Moscow stressed. "Over the years of the war, Ukraine has developed long-range weapons with which it defends itself against Russian military aggression. Regarding the Taurus missiles, the embassy refers to statements by Chancellor [Friedrich] Merz, who said that Germany is not currently supplying this type of missile and has nothing further to add on this matter," the diplomats stated.

As long as Friedrich Merz’s government is in power, any expenditures related to supporting Ukraine will be approved, Artyom Sokolov, a senior researcher at the International Studies Institute of MGIMO University, pointed out. "Berlin will seek to carry out military reform, that is, to transform the Bundeswehr into the most powerful armed forces in the EU, while simultaneously providing high-level support to Ukraine, especially given that such support is being scaled back by other states that were previously major donors to Kiev," the expert said.

 

Vedomosti: EU pledges to deepen ties with Armenia

Following the European Political Community and Armenia-EU summits held on May 4-5 in Yerevan, European officials promised Armenia participation in projects aimed at distancing the country from Russia. Europe thus vowed to support Yerevan’s participation in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, improve the energy sector, provide the means to "counter foreign information manipulation, hybrid threats, and interference," and cooperate on security matters.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised that Brussels would support Yerevan’s participation in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. The EU aims to expand the route at the expense of the northern corridor through Russia to Central Asia and China. Transport volumes via the Trans-Caspian route reached 10 million tons in 2025, nearly half the capacity of the North-South corridor from Russia to Iran, Caucasus expert Arthur Atayev told Vedomosti. "Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are interested in the route to China that bypasses Russia and runs through Armenia," the expert noted.

The EU has also begun cooperating with Armenia on security matters through the European Peace Facility, which is responsible for supplying weapons and military equipment to EU member states and partner countries. The EPF has allocated 30 million euros to the Armenian armed forces for non-lethal equipment for the 2024-2026 period. Since 2022, the fund has provided over 11 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine.

Ideally, the EU would like to establish Armenia as an anti-Russian stronghold, similar to Georgia during the Mikheil Saakashvili era. This intention is evident in the agenda of summits and in Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s direct meetings in Yerevan, Atayev stressed. However, this is hindered by the presence of the Armenian diaspora in Russia. "Armenian businesses in Russia are concerned about the situation in their homeland and the consequences of a potential rupture or deterioration of ties with Moscow, which the Russian authorities have warned about due to Pashinyan’s shift toward the EU," the expert noted. Nevertheless, the South Caucasus is undoubtedly becoming part of the broader European security architecture, although the preferences that Brussels offers Yerevan in the areas of economy, trade, and security pale in comparison to those offered by Russia, Atayev emphasized.

The Armenian authorities speak of seeking an alternative gas source to Russia, but, theoretically, this could only be Azerbaijan, Russian Financial University expert Igor Yushkov noted. Baku supplies gas to Georgia at a discount, but Armenia is unlikely to receive one. Europe depends on the transit of Azerbaijani gas through Georgia, and the Azerbaijani SOCAR state energy company is actively operating in that country, which is what justifies the discount, Yushkov pointed out. Cooperation with the EU on solar energy to diversify dependence on Russia is unrealistic, since it accounts for only 1% of electricity production, the expert stressed.

TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews