MOSCOW, April 27. /TASS/. Talks between the United States and Iran have stalled amid unresolved disputes over sanctions and negotiation conditions; a failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump during a White House Correspondents’ event highlighted tensions in US politics; and the upcoming Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference may face major divisions threatening consensus on nuclear issues. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: US-Iran talks stall as sanctions dispute intensifies

Negotiations between the United States and Iran on resolving the conflict have once again approached the brink of collapse: Tehran is linking a return to dialogue to the lifting of the US blockade, while Washington maintains its own conditions. The key contradictions between the opposing sides remain, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. On April 27, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is set to visit Russia and, according to a number of media reports, may meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Against this backdrop, the American side has canceled its trip to Pakistan, where a meeting with the Iranian delegation had reportedly been scheduled.

According to political scientist and Middle East expert Ilya Shcherbakov, a member of the presidium of the Council of Young Political Scientists of the Russian Association of Political Science, at this stage it is too early to speak of a full-fledged diplomatic resolution of the conflict. The situation surrounding Iran is in an intermediate phase – between the "fog of war" and a regime of partial deconfliction, where certain channels of interaction remain, but a stable political framework for a settlement has not yet been formed. Under these conditions, regional instability persists, including around Lebanon, where the situation continues to serve as an additional source of pressure on diplomatic processes.

If Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, following consultations with mediators, concludes that reaching a deal with Washington remains possible, the parties could theoretically move toward new contacts in the coming days.

"The Iranian delegation presented the Pakistani leadership with a comprehensive vision regarding a ceasefire and the complete end of the war imposed on Iran," Al-Mayadeen correspondent Moussa Assi told Izvestia.

He added that the issue of the second round of negotiations with the American side was not discussed. As for the launch of a settlement process and a return to the negotiating table, this depends on the fate of the unlawful US blockade imposed on Iranian ports.

However, according to Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of Channel 9’s website, there are currently no signs of the parties’ readiness for a genuine compromise. In his view, "hawks" have strengthened their positions within Iran, while more pragmatic circles have been pushed out of decision-making, a trend reflected in Tehran’s public rhetoric, which demonstrates rigidity and a refusal to make concessions.

 

Vedomosti: Trump may seek political advantage after failed assassination attempt

US President Donald Trump has long projected a strong sense of personal mission in his political rhetoric, a stance that may be further reinforced by the latest failed attempt on his life. The incident took place on the evening of April 25 at the White House Correspondents’ Association gala dinner - the formal event traditionally attended by journalists covering the White House, members of the administration, and the political elite. The attacker was detained and, according to the investigation, was identified as 31-year-old California resident Cole Thomas Allen from Torrance, who worked as a teacher. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe Trump may try to leverage the failed assassination attempt to shift attention and mobilize support.

The incident itself is neither surprising nor unexpected, Vedomosti writes. According to the newspaper, the United States is characterized by a very high level of socio-political polarization, and Trump remains one of the most polarizing presidents in the country’s history. This is compounded by the historically high risks faced by top officials within the American political system.

According to Pavel Koshkin, senior research fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, Trump has been presented with an opportunity to shift focus from domestic and foreign policy problems. In his view, the president may well blame the attempted attack on left-wing radicals, as he did following the 2025 killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, and on the Iranian government. "However, there is no guarantee that the US president will once again be able to ‘shake up’ society and boost his ratings, as was the case after the assassination attempt in the summer of 2024," the expert emphasized.

A notable trend is the weakening of Trump’s domestic political standing, which has somewhat tempered his rhetoric and policies in recent times, according to Dmitry Novikov, associate professor at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics. "This is hardly visible to external observers amid his loud statements on Iran, but domestically Trump has become more moderate and conciliatory. His attendance at the correspondents’ dinner was clearly an attempt to reach out to the opposition. The same accounts for his call for unity after the disruption of the event," the expert noted.

Novikov believes that Trump is preparing for the second half of his second term, during which Congress will no longer be fully under his control, as the likelihood of Republicans losing the midterm elections in November 2026 remains quite high.

 

Kommersant: NPT review conference faces rising confrontation as divisions threaten nonproliferation framework

The 11th Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), opening on April 27 at the United Nations headquarters in New York, may become one of the most confrontational in history. Due to acute geopolitical disagreements, the 191 NPT member states have failed to agree on a final document at the last two conferences, and global attention is now focused on a third attempt to reach a settlement. However, the number of contentious issues has only grown since the previous meetings. The inability of states to produce mutually acceptable language confirming the strength of the NPT would deal another painful blow to the nuclear nonproliferation regime, Kommersant writes.

According to the newspaper, nuclear-armed states have entered a period of intense confrontation with one another, making further reductions of their nuclear arsenals impossible, despite their formal obligations under the NPT. Non-nuclear states, on the one hand, are dissatisfied with the failure of nuclear powers to fulfill their disarmament commitments, and, on the other hand, are themselves increasingly showing interest in nuclear weapons amid escalating global instability, viewing them as the only reliable means of protection against external threats.

"I do not think it would be an exaggeration to say that the 2026 NPT Review Conference is the most significant since the 1995 conference, when participating states made the extraordinary decision to extend the treaty indefinitely," former head of policy planning at the International Atomic Energy Agency and former program director at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, now an independent expert, Tariq Rauf, told Kommersant.

In his view, this is not the time for "ritual reaffirmations of commitment to the treaty and its provisions" or for "talk of lowering expectations." "Now is the time for honest analysis and practical action. The review process has succeeded when there was political will and organization, and it has failed when narrow national interests were allowed to pose as principled positions," he stressed.

According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, NPT member states are approaching the conference with "a very heavy burden." At the same time, he emphasized that he does not agree with "alarmist assertions" that a third consecutive failure to adopt a final document would cause irreparable damage to the treaty and the international framework built around it.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Hormuz Strait restrictions may sustain elevated oil and gas prices through 2026

Mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz could take up to six months. This means that high prices for oil, fuel, and gas, as well as risks of energy shortages for importing countries, may continue through the end of 2026, The Washington Post reported citing a statement by the Pentagon delivered at a closed briefing in the US Congress. Experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta also believe that prolonged restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz will drive oil markets from risk-driven price increases to a sustained physical supply shortfall, keeping prices elevated or rising further in the coming months.

If the conflict drags on into mid-or late summer, as has also been suggested in the United States, the consequences of the Middle Eastern crisis could extend into the following year. Active hostilities have currently been suspended, with a ceasefire seemingly in place, but negotiations between Iran and the United States have collapsed, and the dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains active. It is therefore unsurprising that Brent crude prices are steadily climbing and have once again exceeded $100 per barrel, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.

The effect will accumulate, and the market may shift from anticipating shortages to facing an actual deficit of resources. As Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov noted in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is characterized by a combination of two factors: a physical shortage of oil and a risk-related premium.

Even after the strait reopens, supplies do not recover immediately and may take months to normalize, meaning that price pressure will be inertial and could persist through the end of the year, the expert believes.

A similar assessment was offered by Daniil Tyun, CEO of DA-Consulting. For now, the market is largely trading on fear, but if tanker traffic remains restricted for another six to eight weeks, prices will begin to reflect an actual physical shortage. The expert suggested that Brent will remain in the range of $92-100 per barrel through the end of May, rise to $103-108 in June-July, and, if the mine threat persists into August, increase further to $110-115 per barrel.

In this scenario, Russia would benefit from elevated oil prices. If they remain high for six months, a sharp reduction in the Russian budget deficit would be entirely possible. According to Boris Kopeikin, chief economist at the Stolypin Institute for the Economy of Growth, additional temporary exemptions from existing sanctions are quite probable. The US administration is acting in a highly pragmatic manner, seeking to minimize the impact of developments in the Middle East on domestic fuel prices ahead of the congressional and Senate elections scheduled for November this year.

 

Vedomosti: Platinum and palladium prices expected to increase by around 50% in 2026 on supply deficits, rising expenses

The average price of palladium in 2026 is expected to increase by 49% year-on-year to $1,712 per troy ounce, while platinum is projected to rise by 52% to $1,950 per ounce, according to a report on the metals and mining sector by analysts at consulting firm Euler. The key drivers behind the price growth, the authors note, are a deficit of platinum group metals on the global market and rising production expenses. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti agree that platinum and palladium prices are likely to rise sharply in 2026, primarily driven by supply-demand imbalances and higher gold prices.

The palladium deficit in 2026 is estimated at 12-13% of demand, and platinum at 4%, although the analysts do not provide absolute figures. Nornickel, the main Russian producer of these metals, previously forecast in December that the global palladium deficit in 2026 would amount to 100,000 ounces against a demand of 9.3 mln ounces (approximately 1% of consumption), while platinum would see a gap of 300,000 ounces against a demand of 7.4 mln ounces (4%).

If oil prices remain at current levels through the end of the year, the average costs of major platinum and palladium producers are expected to rise by 9-10% to $1,500-1,520 per ounce, according to Nikanor Khalin, senior metals and mining analyst at Euler. Without the factor of high oil prices, costs would have increased by only 3% to around $1,420 per ounce, he noted.

Experts surveyed by Vedomosti also anticipate a significant rise in average platinum and palladium prices this year.

According to Yaroslav Kabakov, strategy director at Finam investment company, the key factor determining platinum and palladium price dynamics in 2026 will be the balance of supply and demand, including inventory levels on the market. While high oil prices do raise producers’ costs and support prices for platinum group metals, this factor is secondary, he believes.

Boris Krasnozhenov, Head of Securities Analytics at Alfa-Bank, believes that the primary driver behind the expected rise in platinum and palladium prices is the significant increase in gold prices. The inflationary effect triggered by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will begin to play a more prominent role in the second half of the year, the expert added.

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