MOSCOW, April 23. /TASS/. Washington’s ceasefire extension may be aimed at buying time; the EU approves a 90-billion-euro loan to Ukraine and the 20th package of sanctions on Russia; and France denies plans to deploy nuclear weapons to other European countries. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Media: Washington’s ceasefire extension may be aimed at buying time

Even if the United States and Iran resume talks, they will still be far from reaching a compromise, political scientists point out. Washington’s move to extend the ceasefire does not resolve key contradictions and only delays the next round of violence, the risk of which remains high, Izvestia writes.

Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of Israel’s Channel 9 website, believes that the US decision to extend the ceasefire with Iran is likely aimed at buying time. Washington is interested in delaying a new phase of escalation in order to create an interval between the two rounds of conflict and depict them as two separate crises.

US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire in order to persuade Tehran to make concessions regarding the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s missile and nuclear program, Kamran Gasanov, doctor of Political Science at the University of Salzburg, told Vedomosti. It is another thing, however, that the US leader may run out of patience at any moment, resuming military operations, because the parties disagree on many issues.

The US blockade of Iran means a continuation of low-intensity military confrontation, and the unilateral ceasefire actually leaves Trump with an opportunity to resume full-scale military operations at any moment, Yury Lyamin, researcher with the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, noted. Still, uncertainty cannot go on forever. Although the US blockade is unlikely to have a major impact on Iran in the short term, pressure on the Iranian economy will grow in the long run, the expert emphasized: "The Strait of Hormuz blockade is exerting increasing pressure on the global economy, affecting the US, too. All this will affect US domestic policy, and it won’t be in favor of Trump or Republicans in general."

Gasanov does not believe Iran will be the one to resume military operations in the region. The analyst expects Tehran to keep the Strait of Hormuz under control, targeting vessels trying to pass through the waterway without Iran’s permission.

 

Vedomosti: EU approves 90-bln-euro loan to Ukraine, 20th package of sanctions on Russia

The European Union has approved a 90-billion-euro interest-free loan to Ukraine for two years. The relevant decision was made back in December 2025 but Budapest blocked the allocation of funds, linking the lifting of its veto to the restoration of Russian oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline, which finally resumed on April 22, Vedomosti notes.

According to Western media reports, EU envoys also approved the 20th package of sanctions on Moscow. Another 43 vessels of the so-called Russian "shadow fleet" involved in energy supplies have been blacklisted. In addition, the EU is introducing additional restrictions on Russia’s banking system and banning the export of a wide range of goods, along with the import of metals, chemicals and minerals, which have not been sanctioned before.

The EU’s move to provide a loan to Ukraine, which will primarily be spent on defense purposes, is certainly an unpleasant thing for Russia, Vladislav Belov, deputy director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe, pointed out. A substantial part of the 90 billion euros will be spent on weapons purchases, increasing Ukraine’s defense capabilities in the conflict with Russia. While adopting the 20th package of sanctions on Moscow, the EU is also tightening the screws on secondary restrictions, limiting opportunities for circumventing them, and any measure included in another sanctions package will cause Russia discomfort. However, the expert points out that Europe will also be affected as it is already facing the negative impact of sanctions on its own economy, particularly because it can no longer import goods from Russia.

The EU’s decision to provide a loan to Ukraine has now been legally formalized, Yegor Sergeyev, senior researcher with the Institute for International Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, noted. The procedure has been going on since late 2025, and all these months, it was clear to Russia that the loan would eventually be allocated and that with US assistance to Ukraine on hold, the European Union would be Kiev’s key donor.

Notably, there is a division of labor in the EU, with Brussels focused on macroeconomic support for Ukraine and the nation states providing military assistance to Kiev. Without such support, Ukraine would not be able to pay for war costs, the expert stressed.

 

Izvestia: France denies plans to deploy nuclear weapons to other European countries

Paris has no plans to deploy its nuclear weapons to third countries, an official at the French embassy in Moscow told Izvestia. Meanwhile, Paris seeks to expand its nuclear deterrence dialogue with European allies. France and Poland have already agreed to deepen military cooperation; earlier, Paris and Berlin decided to launch a separate cooperation platform. The embassy official stressed that Paris and Moscow continue to discuss issues related to nuclear doctrines and risk reduction.

France, which remains the only EU country that possesses nuclear weapons, has significantly expanded its role in the deterrence system in recent months. The reason why Paris has stepped up its nuclear deterrence activities is that the United States is increasingly demanding that allies spend more on their own defense, Dmitry Stefanovich, researcher with the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, believes.

"In such a situation, it would be strange for Paris not to take advantage of its unique status as the only EU country with a nuclear arsenal. Under this pretext, the French are likely not only to expand cooperation with other countries but also to try to ensure greater involvement of allies, particularly in funding the French defense industry as well as the US one," the expert elaborated.

What is complicating the situation is that the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between Russia and the United States expired on February 5. Washington calls for broader agreements that would also involve China. Moscow, in turn, insists that any potential accords should also take into account the nuclear capabilities of the United Kingdom and France.

However, Paris and London are in no hurry to join such a system because they see their nuclear arsenals as independent national deterrents rather than part of Russia-US agreements. France in particular points out that while its nuclear forces complement NATO’s system, it is solely up to the country’s president to make a decision on their use.

 

Media: Kazakh oil transit to Germany via Druzhba pipeline to end by May

The volumes of oil that Kazakhstan used to deliver to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline will be redirected starting on May 1. The decision stems from "technical difficulties," Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters, confirming statements about the termination of oil transit made by authorities in Kazakhstan and Germany, Vedomosti reports.

For Europeans, the temporary loss of Kazakh oil transit via Druzhba means increased dependence on seaborne supplies through Russian ports, Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government, observed. "It means they will be more interested in Ukraine halting attacks on these facilities," he explained. Redirecting Kazakh oil to China is not that easy because pipelines routed to the country are already filled with Russian crude, Yushkov added.

The suspension of Druzhba supplies is an important signal for Kazakhstan, indicating the need to diversify supply routes and ensure access to the European market, Finam Strategy Director Yaroslav Kabakov pointed out. In his view, oil supplies will be redirected to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), Russian ports such as Ust-Luga and the Caspian Sea area, mainly Azerbaijan. "The situation is not critical but it is adding to structural risks, raising logistics costs and increasing dependence on a limited number of routes. The CPC’s role will grow even more, even though it is vulnerable to attacks," the expert added.

Yushkov also told Kommersant that in practice, Kazakh oil transit through Russia will continue via the Atyrau-Samara pipeline, only crude will now be loaded onto tankers on the Black Sea or Baltic Sea. However, he notes that if the security of supplies is not ensured, any incident affecting port infrastructure would increase hydrocarbon shortages on the European and global markets.

That said, the expert believes that Germany will be interested in preserving this supply channel. The country has financial leverage to put pressure on Kiev: Berlin can refuse to provide aid to Kiev if the situation worsens, although this is not a guarantee that Russian ports will be completely safe, the expert concluded.

 

Kommersant: Analysts expect copper, aluminum shortages to last until 2030

Accidents at industrial facilities, output growth difficulties, shortages of raw materials and the Middle East conflict will create copper and aluminum shortages that will last for the next four years. Russian producers such as Nornickel and Rusal could take advantage of the situation, Kommerssant writes.

A structural deficit is looming on most non-ferrous metals markets, which will determine prices at least until 2030, Euler analysts said in a report.

Analysts explain that copper shortages stem from a series of accidents at major mines in Chile, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia, which are not expected to recover before 2027. Meanwhile, copper demand in the renewable energy industry and power-grid upgrading continues to grow, especially in China.

As for the aluminum market, supply shortages are largely being created by the conflict in the Middle East, where 9% of global production capacity is located. Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened to traffic in the near future, aluminum shortages will persist at least until September because the facilities that were damaged during the conflict have to be repaired, S+Consulting partner Ilya Gryaznov said.

With certain markets facing deficits, Russian producers could gain additional revenues by redistributing exports, Nornickel sources say. However, in practice, their options are limited because much of the supplies are already contracted. Dmitry Orekhov, managing director at the NCR rating agency, points out that potential copper and aluminum shortages are creating a favorable environment for Nornickel and Rusal but their ability to take this opportunity will largely depend on whether Asian and Middle Eastern counterparties will be willing to increase the share of Russian metals, as well as on how logistics and financial arrangements adapt to the situation.

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