MOSCOW, April 20. /TASS/. Tensions flare between the United States and Iran as the ceasefire is set to expire, and the EU is getting ready to rehearse collective defense without NATO. Meanwhile, the US Treasury issues a new Russia-related license authorizing oil sales. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Vedomosti: Hormuz crisis risks disrupting new round of US-Iran talks

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has closed the Strait of Hormuz for all vessels since Saturday evening after the US refused to lift the blockade on Iranian ports, imposed on April 13. The IRGC statement came a day after Tehran allowed all commercial vessels to pass through the waterway by permission after a ceasefire was agreed between the pro-Iranian Shiite group Hezbollah and Iran was reached.

Simultaneously, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council warned in a statement that Tehran will view the US blockade of shipping routes for Iranian vessels as a violation of the ceasefire. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issued a similar warning live on the public broadcaster and added that the Iranian military will open fire on US ships if they attempt to clear mines in Iranian waters.

Iran is highly likely to defy US pressure because unblocking Iranian ports is the main task for the Islamic Republic, Ilya Vaskin, junior research fellow at the Center for Middle East, Caucasus and Central Asia Studies at Higher School of Economics told Vedomosti. According to him, Tehran would lift its blockade on the Hormuz Strait after the United States demonstrates in practice its willingness to sign a deal. Otherwise, the IRGC will refuse to de-escalate, the expert in Iranian studies warned.

In his turn, US President Donald Trump rejected the closure of the Hormuz by the Iranians on April 19 as a violation of the ceasefire. The US leader once again advised Tehran to agree to the terms of a deal being put forward by the Americans; otherwise, he warned, the US will "knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge" in the Islamic Republic and added that US negotiators will be going out for a second round of talks with Iran in Pakistan on Sunday.

Vaskin views the likelihood of another bout of the Middle East war after the US-Iranian ceasefire expires on April 22 as high at this stage. "The level of trust that the Iranians have in the Trump administration is extremely low. The Americans have repeatedly broken their promises and launched strikes on Iranian cities during talks. They [the Iranians] will remain wary even if the war ends," the expert surmised.

The IRGC has demonstrated its readiness to open fire on vessels attempting to clear the Hormuz Strait after Iran’s elite army unit shut the waterway, Yury Lyamin, a senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told Vedomosti. Any seizure of Iranian tankers in the Indian Ocean or the Pacific Ocean by the United States, too, will trigger a major escalation, the political analyst added. However, he does not rule out a new round of talks as the two sides have used the blockade as an instrument to strengthen their bargaining positions. "The possibility of holding negotiations remains. However, it’s hard to predict how the situation will unfold next, with Washington and Tehran remaining divided on numerous key issues regarding the nuclear program," the expert explained.

 

Kommersant: EU to make a rehearsal of collective defense without NATO

EU countries would like to be able to ensure collective defense without either NATO or the United States as they are planning to simulate using Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), which requires member states to provide military assistance to partners facing armed aggression amid the rift in the North Atlantic Alliance. Unlike NATO, the EU’s military structures have so far been quite weak. Russia believes that, by holding this exercise, the Europeans are seeking to send a signal to the Americans that they can cope without their assistance. Russia argues that the trend of the EU transforming from an economic bloc into a military-political one is gaining momentum.

On April 23-24, Cyprus will host an informal EU summit where EU leaders are expected to discuss arrangements for practicing the use of Article 42.7 of the TEU for the first time ever. Amid threats from US President Donald Trump to withdraw his country from NATO, EU member states decided to rehearse their actions should the need to provide collective defense on their own arise. There is a plan to hold the simulation in two stages in May, first at the level of EU ambassadors in Brussels and then at the level of defense chiefs. They are expected to focus on practicing communication within the bloc in a crisis scenario regarding who will call whom and how decisions will be made.

Valdai International Discussion Club Program Director and research director at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics Timofey Bordachev said in an interview with Kommersant that, for the time being, the EU’s plan to hold an exercise to practice defensive actions independently "looks like an attempt to show to the US that Europe takes Trump’s threats regarding NATO seriously and is perhaps ready to do without the Americans." "Unlike NATO, the EU does not currently have institutional mechanisms for effective coordination of actions by member states to provide mutual military assistance either at the political or the military level," he explained to the newspaper.

According to the expert, the EU has discussed the need to establish such mechanisms since the first half of the 1990s but the talk has always bumped into the need to duplicate corresponding structures at NATO, something that would neither benefit the Europeans themselves in economic terms nor find support from the Americans. "The idea of holding `exercises’ at the level of EU ambassadors and defense ministers should be viewed as yet another diplomatic move in the Europeans’ `game’ with Trump," the expert argued. These will likely culminate in a political statement that the EU has proven its ability to make decisions and act in an emergency, Bordachev said as he called such `exercises’ a loud bang in the information sphere.

 

Media: US moves to issue Russia-related license authorizing sale of oil

The US Department of the Treasury announced the issuance of a new federal license, 134B, authorizing an extension of operations (delivery and sale) with tankers carrying Russian crude, loaded before April 17, until May 16. The move came a week after a similar license, 134A, expired on April 11. At that, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated back on April 15 that the US is not planning to "extend" the previous license or a similar document related to Iranian oil.

Later, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright explained that the decision regarding Russian crude was made to address requests voiced at a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Washington on April 16.

The US issued a new Russia-related license for two reasons, namely Trump’s falling approval rating and the deadlock in talks with Iran, Malek Dudakov, a political analyst specializing in US studies told Vedomosti. According to the expert, growing gasoline and fuel prices in the United States are further reducing the Republicans’ chances of avoiding a crushing defeat in the midterm election in November 2026; therefore, the White House is now trying to push energy prices down. As for talks with Iran, the Trump administration did not hurry to decide on Russian oil as it hoped to reach at least an interim ceasefire with the Islamic Republic, Dudakov emphasized.

Vladimir Pavlov, a research fellow at the Institute of International Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), agrees that the Treasury’s decision to issue the new license was driven by efforts to alleviate American citizens’ dissatisfaction with rising fuel prices.

Kirill Rodionov, an expert in energy, told Kommersant, citing various estimates, that it may take between five weeks and seven months to restore oil production in the Middle East. Meanwhile, analysts note, demand for Russian crude remains very high, especially from Asian buyers, amid a tense global market balance.

The US Treasury may continue to issue Russia-related licenses unless exports from the Middle East resume, Andrey Polishchuk, senior oil and gas industry analyst at Eiler, told Kommersant.

According to Dmitry Kasatkin, a managing partner at Kasatkin Consulting, new permits can cover a shorter period (of 15 days instead of 30), have a narrower reach in geographic terms or envisage additional conditions. And the practice can be fully canceled amid a sustained decline in Brent prices to below $70 and progress in resolving political differences, he added. "Neither of these is currently visible on the horizon of the next six weeks," Kasatkin noted.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: US Department of State holds clandestine talks with Cuban leaders

A breakthrough has occurred in the relations between the United States and Cuba, strained under the current White House administration. US State Department representatives met with Cuban officials in Havana, Axios reported. The latter included Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, the grandson of the revolutionary and former leader Raul Castro. Against this backdrop, Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel announced plans for a major overhaul of the government apparatus.

The meeting, first reported by Axios, took place in the Cuban capital on April 10. Available information shows that at the secret talks the Americans listed their demands, including promoting democratic and economic freedoms and, likely, implementing reforms. US officials last visited the island during Barack Obama’s tenure as president. He himself travelled to Cuba in 2016, becoming the first US leader to visit the Island of Freedom since it embraced Communism.

The full composition of the two delegations was not disclosed, but, Axios said, the Cuban negotiators included Raul Castro’s grandson, who made a major contribution to the success of the 1959 Cuban revolution and provided full support to his brother, Fidel Castro.

Director of the Center for Iberian-American Studies at St. Petersburg State University Viktor Kheifets told Nezavisimaya Gazeta, explaining why Trump may be interested in Raul Castro, that the former Cuban president has retained a certain degree of influence in the Latin American country. "I would not say that it is he who is running everything behind the scenes. As he has pledged, Raul Castro has largely stepped away from power. <…> However, Castro retains a certain influence among the military," the expert explained. Senior army officials are mostly represented by people once appointed by Castro. "A certain share of the Cuban economy is controlled by firms and businesses affiliated with the country's military. Therefore, there is a certain chain of influence with ties to the army and the economy, to which Castro has an indirect relation," Kheifets said.

As for US demands, these include the return of American property and the absence of outside influence, the expert continued. "I doubt they dictated who should be in power and who should not," he said. Diaz-Canel himself is looking for an intermediate option between US demands, the need for conducting a genuine economic reform, and preserving some of the legacy of the Cuban revolution, Kheifets concluded.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: NATO, Japan set to join efforts in anti-China push

The North Atlantic Alliance took an unprecedented step as it sent a delegation of about 300 officials to Japan and South Korea. Beijing said this move further confirms that NATO, whose commitments are limited to Europe and the Atlantic, is seeking to put down roots in Asia, with a key goal of containing China.

Zhao Junjie, a senior research fellow at the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says the NATO delegation's visit was meant to demonstrate that the bloc goes along with the zeitgeist. Furthermore, the organizers of the tour wanted the Europeans to learn from the experience of Japan, which has managed to maintain strong ties with Washington, despite the latter’s shifting demands on its allies. NATO emissaries also visited military bases in Japan and South Korea, revealing the intentions of NATO’s European members to expand military cooperation with these countries.

In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Alexander Lukin, academic director of the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia at the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted: "The issue of establishing an Asian NATO was not discussed. The sides considered expanding NATO's influence to certain Asian countries. This idea was particularly well-received in Japan. After all, current Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi advocates deepening ties with the United States and strengthening the Japanese military. However, South Korea may not support NATO expansion to the East. Trump is the main proponent of bringing US allies together against China. However, the Europeans, who have extensive trade ties with China, are unlikely to support Washington’s position."

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