MOSCOW, April 17. /TASS/. The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is likely to be brief, why Washington reinstated sanctions on Russian oil, and Russia sees no prospects for direct dialogue with Ukraine without the US. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: Israel-Lebanon ceasefire could quickly collapse

The ceasefire reached between Israel and Lebanon is unlikely to prove sustainable. Most likely, it will be merely a temporary pause in a protracted conflict, rather than the beginning of a comprehensive settlement. Experts note that the 10-day ceasefire announced with US mediation reflects a desire to reduce the intensity of hostilities but does not resolve key disagreements, primarily regarding the role of Hezbollah and Israel’s demand that the group be disarmed. Even the possible initiation of direct contacts between Lebanon and Israel does not guarantee a transition to long-term de-escalation under these conditions.

The ceasefire that has been reached will most likely be temporary and is unlikely to evolve into a sustainable deal, said Lyudmila Samarskaya, a researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute. In her opinion, Israel’s objective of disarming Hezbollah is not going away and will remain a central element of its strategy along its northern borders. "Israel would definitely like to separate the Lebanese front from the Iranian one and not link the ceasefires on these two fronts. Even if agreements are reached between the two countries' leaderships, Israel would prefer to retain its freedom of action against Hezbollah," Samarskaya told Izvestia.

Muslim Shaito, the head of the Russian bureau of Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen TV channel, believes that, for now, Israel is primarily seeking a clear military victory. In the long term, however, Israel may aim to provoke an internal conflict in Lebanon that could lead to civil war.

In turn, retired Lebanese general George Nader told Izvestia that the Shia group Hezbollah significantly outmatches the Lebanese army in terms of organization, accumulated combat experience, and the volume of its arsenal, making any attempts to disarm it without broad internal consensus practically unrealistic. According to Nader, the key factor is how Israel behaves following a potential de-escalation. If its forces are not fully withdrawn, this will effectively block any attempts by Beirut to fulfill its obligations to limit Hezbollah’s armed presence. It will also maintain the current balance of power within the country in the long term.

 

Media: Reasons why Washington reinstated sanctions on Russian oil

The partial lifting of US sanctions on Russian oil exports will not be extended, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced. The day before, it was reported that similar sanctions exemptions had been revoked for Iranian oil. The US lifted restrictions on Russian exports from March 10 to April 11, applying them to oil already loaded onto tankers. Washington sought to curb the rise in oil prices caused by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which cut off crude oil supplies to the global market from Gulf countries. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reported that Russian oil exports rose by 4.7% in March, reaching 7.13 million barrels per day. The price of Russian Urals crude increased from $44.59 per barrel in February to $78.38.

There may be several reasons behind Trump’s decision to reinstate sanctions on Russian oil. First, there are growing exports from the US itself. Washington has come very close to becoming a net oil exporter, with imports totaling 5.3 million barrels per day. Second, the failure of negotiations with Iran has put the US in a difficult position. The conflict threatens to become protracted.

Washington needs to increase pressure on Tehran and gain support from the largest oil importers, particularly the EU, China, and India. Third, Russian National Energy Security Fund head Konstantin Simonov told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the US’ primary goal is to dominate all segments of the global market. Washington continues to actively eliminate its competitors, demonstrating that everything depends on its goodwill or ill will.

For Russian exporters, moderately higher prices partially offset the sanctions restrictions and the discount to Brent, State Duma’s Energy Committee Deputy Chairman Yury Stankevich told Izvestia. The 4.7% growth in Russian exports in March demonstrates stable demand from Asian countries, particularly China and India. Interest from Southeast Asian countries is also supporting redirected flows, especially given Russian suppliers' flexible pricing policies. A significant reduction in Russian supplies is not expected in the short term - rather, further adjustment of logistics and pricing terms is likely.

Dmitry Kasatkin, managing partner at Kasatkin Consulting, pointed out that in the short term, Brent will remain in the $90-110 range, with the potential to rise to $120-140 in the event of an escalation. "For Russian exporters, this currently means a continuation of the period of peak revenue over the past four years," the expert emphasized.

 

Izvestia: Russia sees no prospects for direct dialogue with Ukraine

The resumption of direct Russia-Ukraine talks is not being considered in the absence of US involvement. To restart the bilateral dialogue, Russia's memorandum submitted in Istanbul must at least be reviewed. Currently, contacts between Moscow and Kiev are largely confined to humanitarian issues. Moreover, this work continues on the basis of trilateral agreements reached in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. At the same time, experts believe that, following the Middle East crisis, Washington may not re-engage in the Ukrainian settlement at the same level.

"Without additional pressure on Ukraine, I don’t think it’s realistic to expect direct dialogue because no documents have been drafted yet. More than six months ago, during the last meeting held in the Istanbul format, Russia submitted the text of a draft memorandum, and to this day, we have received no response," Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large for the crimes of the Kiev regime Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia.

Moscow is currently pursuing its goals by military means, as long as Kiev refuses to make concessions at the negotiating table. At the same time, the West and Ukraine are counting on winning by wearing Russia down, political scientist Dmitry Solonnikov emphasized. That is why the negotiations remain at an impasse, and the US acts more as a facilitator of the process than as a force capable of pushing Ukraine to accept Russia’s terms. "The US is guiding the negotiation process over Ukraine. They are not hiding their interests, either: they want to gain maximum control over the situation that will emerge after the process concludes," the expert pointed out.

Solonnikov noted that the US will only return to the settlement if Donald Trump retains the political capacity to do so. Impeachment proceedings have already begun against Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth. According to the expert, similar proceedings will likely begin against Trump, which will make it significantly more difficult for him to conduct negotiations. This is especially likely since the House of Representatives and the Senate will most likely come under Democratic control following the elections in the fall.

In turn, Shamsail Saraliyev, a representative of the parliamentary coordination group on the special military operation, stressed that the issue of prisoner exchanges is effectively on the agenda at all negotiating forums where the Ukrainian settlement is being discussed in one way or another. According to him, it is precisely thanks to ongoing efforts, as well as previous rounds of negotiations, that exchanges have been taking place consistently recently.

 

Vedomosti: US, Iran coordinating time, venue for second round of talks

Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts to launch a second round of US-Iran talks appear to be bearing fruit. Immediately following the conclusion of Pakistani Army Staff Chief Asim Munir’s working visit to Tehran, a Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman, Tahir Andrabi, announced on April 16 that the two sides had agreed to resume dialogue with the aim of reaching a deal. However, the date, venue, and composition of the negotiating delegations still need to be agreed upon by the parties in the near future, the diplomat emphasized. Andrabi added that the success of future dialogue will also depend on the situation in Lebanon, where fighting continues between Israel and the pro-Iranian Shia group Hezbollah.

The likelihood of a second round of negotiations remains quite low, Rajab Safarov, director general of the Center for the Study of Modern Iran, told Vedomosti. Tehran wants to preliminarily agree on the scope of issues for discussion, the expert noted. Iran is not ready to discuss the transfer of enriched uranium to any party or suspending its nuclear program. Moreover, Safarov added that Tehran will under no circumstances agree to return to the pre-war status quo in the Strait of Hormuz. "Against the backdrop of ongoing American pressure, this situation gives the Iranian leadership more leverage in its dialogue with the US. The negotiation process is very fragile. At the same time, the White House is using Israel to undermine it. But without a settlement to the Lebanese issue, a diplomatic breakthrough is unlikely," the expert emphasized.

While the US and Iran are interested in ending hostilities, this desire alone is insufficient for a diplomatic solution to the Middle East problem, Pavel Koshkin, a senior researcher at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted. On the one hand, it is important for Trump to show his voters results from his foreign policy gamble, such as the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program. On the other hand, the Iranian leadership must demonstrate its unyielding resolve and independence, he stressed. "The parties are not ready to compromise on matters of principle. Therefore, the problem initially seems intractable: all paths inevitably lead to a dead end," the expert emphasized.

According to Koshkin, under these conditions, the parties can only buy time and catch their breath until the next escalation. The expert did not rule out extending the ceasefire indefinitely to regroup forces. "It is possible that the ceasefire will extend to Lebanon as well, if doing so helps maintain the frozen conflict," the expert noted.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Consequences of Moldova’s withdrawal from CIS

The Moldovan authorities’ decision to withdraw from the CIS is regrettable, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. The Moldovan opposition believes that the decision to leave the Commonwealth of Independent States was made solely to please the EU, since the country’s withdrawal will gradually impoverish its population. By announcing its withdrawal from the CIS, Moldova may be hoping to replicate Georgia’s experience. After breaking ties with the association in 2008, Georgia retained its participation in a number of agreements previously concluded within the CIS framework.

Natalia Kharitonova, a senior research fellow at the Russian State University for the Humanities, noted that despite the strong desire of the current Moldovan authorities, it will be difficult for Chisinau to chase two rabbits: to take advantage of the CIS treaties most beneficial to the country and to pursue the path of European integration. "The negative effects of this decision will be delayed and will lead to the gradual impoverishment of the population," Kharitonova told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. "The agricultural sector will be hit the hardest. In addition to losing part of its export markets, Moldova will also lose access to cheap fertilizers, the tariffs on which are regulated by CIS agreements. The same applies to other categories of Moldovan imports, such as construction materials, timber, and metals. Moldova currently purchases these goods at prices lower than global market rates. These sectors will suffer the most," the expert pointed out.

Experts agree that the West is unlikely to fully replace cooperation with CIS partners. Today, Europe, which is facing an economic crisis itself, is providing Moldova with limited assistance. The US has recently ceased providing Chisinau with financial support altogether.

Typically, when a country withdraws from an international organization, a grace period is granted during which the state may change its mind. In the case of the CIS, this period is one year. However, it is not worth waiting for Chisinau to change its mind about leaving the association, Kharitonova stressed. "Under the current government, this will definitely not happen. They justified their decision by saying that it is a step toward European integration, as enshrined in the constitution," the expert emphasized.

"The country's authorities will begin seeking Brussels for money, grants, and investments even more intensely. This increases the risk of Moldova being drawn into a full-scale confrontation with Russia alongside Europe and Ukraine," Kharitonova noted.

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