MOSCOW, April 2. /TASS/. Russia’s full control over the Lugansk People’s Republic may change the military situation and potentially influence future negotiations on the Ukraine conflict; Donald Trump’s statements about NATO may put pressure on European allies to increase defense spending and support US foreign policy initiatives; and Russia may significantly boost fertilizer exports to Latin America amid Chinese export restrictions and growing agricultural demand. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: Russia’s full control over LPR may reshape Ukraine peace talks

Control over the entire territory of the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) could strengthen Moscow’s negotiating position and increase pressure on Kiev, experts told Izvestia. In their assessment, the conclusion of hostilities in the region alters the balance of forces and could influence the terms of future negotiations, even despite the current pause in dialogue. As analysts noted, this pause is largely linked to the United States shifting its attention to the situation in the Middle East and reallocating Washington’s resources, which lowers the intensity of diplomatic contacts on the Ukrainian track and postpones the possible resumption of negotiations.

Military expert Vasily Dandykin told Izvestia that the direction of the offensive will now move northward.

"After stabilizing the front at the junction of the LPR, the Kharkov and Donetsk regions, efforts will be concentrated on the northern flank. The advance will proceed through Krasny Liman and Svyatogorsk, followed by an approach to Slovyansk. The main role in this operation will be played by the West battlegroup," the expert explained.

"The depletion of air defense systems and the loss of key fortified areas in the LPR form conditions for more intensive advances over the next two months," Dandykin concluded.

Military expert Viktor Litovkin emphasized that full control over the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic remains the primary goal.

Meanwhile, the negotiation process between Russia, Ukraine and the United States has been put on hold. The last time representatives of the three countries met was in Geneva on February 17-18. After the start of the conflict in the Middle East, the Ukrainian crisis moved to the background for the United States, which resulted in the suspension of the peace process.

Complete control of the LPR will not affect the negotiation process in any way and will not force Kiev to make compromises, political analyst Yury Svetov believes. At present, the negotiation process has reached a deadlock, political analyst and member of the Presidential Council for Interethnic Relations Bogdan Bezpalko told the newspaper. However, Ukraine’s position could change if the conflict in the Middle East prolongs.

 

Vedomosti: Trump signals NATO pressure strategy as US urges allies to increase defense role

Trump said that he had not sufficiently pushed allies to join the operation against Iran, emphasizing the need for the "automatic" participation of alliance members in combat operations. As an example of fulfilling allied obligations, Trump cited US support for Ukraine, although Ukraine is not a NATO member. Several hours earlier, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had suggested that Washington might reassess its relationship with NATO after the end of the conflict with Iran. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that Trump is unlikely to actually withdraw the United States from NATO but may use threats of withdrawal, troop reductions and economic pressure as leverage to compel European allies to assume greater defense responsibilities and support US foreign policy initiatives.

According to Vladimir Vasilyev, chief research fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, Trump’s statements about the US withdrawing from NATO represent a form of "classic political acrobatics" and a tool of pressure, since legally the process is strictly limited by the US Congress. If the president nevertheless wants to withdraw from the alliance, he would need to secure the support of two-thirds of the Senate while the Republican Party does not have that many seats, and a significant share of senators would not support such a decision.

However, Vasilyev stressed that Trump has other levers of pressure on NATO. He can effectively undermine the foundations of the alliance by reducing the number of American troops deployed in Europe, cutting funding for military programs, and effectively abandoning commitments under Article 5 of the alliance’s charter on collective defense. "Withdrawal from NATO essentially means: we will not lift a finger if something happens to you," Vasilyev said.

There is no real possibility for the administration to actually withdraw from NATO, Vladimir Pavlov, research fellow at the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University, told Vedomosti. In his opinion, Trump is using such statements to shift attention from the situation surrounding Iran. He also agrees that one of the most likely scenarios remains the threat from Trump to reduce the number of American troops in Europe.

"Through rhetoric about leaving Europe, threats of tariffs, and support for certain political parties, the administration will try to encourage European capitals to take on more responsibility for their own security, as well as to become involved in US external projects that may not generate much enthusiasm, such as the idea of escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz or policy toward China," the expert concluded.

 

Izvestia: Russia may boost fertilizer exports to Latin America amid Chinese export restrictions and Middle East tensions

Russia may increase fertilizer supplies to Latin America. In particular, this concerns Argentina, Mexico and Colombia, Russian and foreign diplomats told Izvestia. Earlier, in an attempt to protect its domestic market, China limited exports amid the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, an agricultural crisis is now possible in Latin America. Experts believe that demand from this region will allow Russia’s fertilizer market not only to increase revenue but also to double in size. Specialists consider Russian restrictions on exports of ammonium nitrate and mineral fertilizers to be only a temporary obstacle. The only potential problem could be the regional ambitions of the United States.

China is the second-largest fertilizer exporter in the world after Russia. For example, Argentina is interested in increasing imports, the republic’s ambassador to Russia, Enrique Ignacio Ferrer Vieyra, told Izvestia.

"Last year, according to Argentine statistics, the total volume of our imports from Russia grew by approximately 190% compared with 2024, and this was largely due to increased purchases of Russian fertilizers," the ambassador noted. "Therefore, it is logical to assume that under current conditions our farmers will continue to purchase fertilizers from this source — in previous volumes or even in larger ones," he added.

Demand for Russian products in Argentina is linked to a prolonged period of drought, expansion of planted areas and comparatively low prices, Russia’s ambassador to the republic, Dmitry Feoktistov, told Izvestia.

Growth in Russian fertilizer supplies is also being discussed with Mexico. "The Russian side is in constant dialogue with Mexican relevant ministries and business circles," the Russian embassy in the republic emphasized.

Moscow may also increase supplies to Colombia. "For many years Russia has been the main supplier of fertilizers to the local market. We hope that if necessary, and if Colombian partners express corresponding interest, domestic companies will be able to increase supplies and satisfy growing demand for this category of goods," diplomats stressed.

Russia’s positions on the global fertilizer market appear stronger than in oil and gas, Candidate of Economic Sciences Evgeny Sumarokov told Izvestia. According to him, Russia accounts for 23% of ammonia exports, 14% of urea exports and, together with Belarus, 40% of potash fertilizers.

According to various estimates, total exports of these products from Russia in 2026 may amount to 45-47 mln tons with a focus on friendly markets, including Latin America, which has already become a key destination for Russian fertilizer suppliers, added Dmitry Baranov, leading expert at Finam Management. According to him, the Russian agrochemical market could double by 2032, with Latin America acting as the main driver of demand.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: US may restore sanctions on Russian oil after Strait of Hormuz reopens

Amid the crisis in the Middle East, rising oil and gas prices associated with it, and the risks of shortages, the issue of US attempts to dominate the energy market has largely slipped from focus.

The United States, having become entangled in the conflict with Iran, was forced to partially lift sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil. Despite oil prices holding above $100 per barrel for more than a month, oil production in the United States is not increasing, and the number of active drilling rigs is actually declining. Experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta believe that once the global oil market stabilizes and prices decline, the United States will likely reimpose sanctions on Russian oil in order to strengthen its competitive position and expand its dominance in global energy markets.

The United States may return to restrictions as soon as oil prices begin to decline steadily, the newspaper writes. Considering the US midterm congressional elections in the fall, Donald Trump and the Republicans would be satisfied with prices of $50-70 per barrel. At those levels, gasoline prices at American gas stations would be quite acceptable for the population.

Konstantin Simonov, head of the National Energy Security Fund, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the United States has set a course toward open dominance in global energy markets. It will push all its competitors out of the market using the harshest methods. The war in the Persian Gulf is the best proof of this. The United States has dealt harshly even with its former allies — Saudi Arabia and especially Qatar. Therefore, there should be no illusions about this, the expert believes.

Simonov believes that the oil market will recover fairly quickly. After that, the United States will remove all concessions regarding exports of oil from Russia. According to him, even though US shale production is experiencing certain problems (water cut, increased gas output), its potential has not been exhausted. In addition, US oil production has other growth areas — deepwater production in the Gulf of Mexico (American Gulf), the Alaska shelf. Moreover, US interests extend to oil production in Guyana, Mexico and Canada, everywhere where production is fully or partially controlled by American companies. This production is growing. And new volumes will compete with oil from other countries, including Russia, and not always on equal terms, the expert believes.

 

Vedomosti: Fuel shortages push Asian countries to seek oil supplies from Russia

Countries of South and East Asia are experiencing growing problems with fuel shortages that emerged after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz due to the war with the United States and Israel. The crisis situation is forcing them to introduce various energy-saving measures and seek alternative suppliers, including Russia. This became possible after the US Treasury on March 12 issued a general license for one month allowing transactions involving Russian oil already loaded onto tankers. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that the Strait of Hormuz blockade is forcing Asian countries, especially poorer and import-dependent ones, to compete for limited oil supplies, including Russian oil, with their ability to withstand the crisis depending on strategic reserves and financial resources rather than supply availability alone.

Under the new conditions, as the Financial Times wrote, countries of South Asia are in a desperate position and essentially have no choice but to turn to Russia.

The countries most affected by the current fuel crisis will be those in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South Asia that have small oil reserves in their strategic storage facilities, if they have such reserves at all, Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government, told Vedomosti. For example, India has strategic reserves that are being gradually used, as it continues to receive supplies from Russia, the expert noted. But even for countries that have reserves, if the war drags on, the situation will worsen due to the depletion of those reserves.

The second factor determining the ability to cope with the crisis is simply the availability of money to offer higher prices under current conditions, Yushkov says. For now, the energy crisis is primarily economic in nature, but gradually it is also moving into a physical dimension, when it becomes increasingly difficult to find oil available for sale. At the same time, Russia cannot significantly increase production of additional volumes of oil for export, Yushkov noted. As a result, Asian countries are forced to enter into intense competition for limited oil volumes, including Russian supplies.

Poorer countries that were heavily dependent on supplies through this route are feeling the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz the most, analyst at Finam Financial Group Sergey Kaufman told the newspaper.

As part of supply diversification, Southeast Asian countries have indeed begun actively purchasing Russian oil, which became possible after the temporary easing of US sanctions. In addition to the Philippines, state companies in Vietnam and Indonesia are actively negotiating with Russia on long-term contracts and investments. Thailand has also joined oil purchases. However, the ability to sharply increase exports is limited, Alexander Korolev, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and Global Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, concluded.

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