MOSCOW, March 25. /TASS/. US President Donald Trump is ready to cease hostilities against Iran, even if Tehran does not formally agree to Washington's demands; Saudi Arabia may join the US and Israel in their war against Tehran; and member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) plan to release oil reserves to stabilize global markets. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Media: US trying to find way out of protracted conflict with Iran

Donald Trump is ready to declare an end to hostilities against Iran, even if Tehran does not formally agree to Washington's demands. The US president is seeking to end the protracted conflict. However, the positions of the parties remain diametrically opposed: Washington insists on restrictions on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, while Tehran rejects these conditions and puts forward counter-demands, including compensation and the lifting of sanctions.

Middle East expert Kirill Semyonov told Izvestia that the current situation differs fundamentally from previous negotiations, including those mediated by Oman and held at other venues. According to him, Iran is no longer willing to return to the previously discussed demands, believing they’re no longer pertinent. Instead, Tehran is setting a new agenda that focuses on financial compensation for damages incurred. "By ‘compensation,’ the Iranian side could have a wide range of measures in mind, from unfreezing financial assets to lifting sanctions. The specific details of these demands will need to be hashed out in negotiations. In any case, Iran will seek more favorable terms compared to previous rounds of negotiations," the expert pointed out.

In his opinion, a potential framework for an agreement could include economic concessions and security provisions, such as non-aggression guarantees and a reassessment of the US military presence in the region. In exchange, Tehran might theoretically agree to partial restrictions on its nuclear program, though not to its complete dismantling. According to Semyonov, the key question is whether Washington is ready to accept such a deal, as the prospect of reaching a compromise will depend precisely on this.

Amid this diplomacy, the US has not, however, ruled out the idea of a ground invasion. "US marines coming in to capture Iran’s islands and coastline in the Persian Gulf is on Tehran’s radar. It’s entirely possible that special units of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will join in," military expert Vladimir Popov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. He emphasized that the US and Israel are still preparing to use air power to neutralize ground targets on Iranian territory and continue to build up forces in the region. In the expert’s opinion, Trump's talk of peace could be a smokescreen for a surprise invasion.

 

Vedomosti: Could Persian Gulf states join war against Iran

Saudi Arabia may join the US and Israel in their war against Tehran. While before the start of the Middle East war, Riyadh refused to allow US servicemen to use its facilities or airspace to attack Iran, the country's neutrality was shattered after Tehran began shelling Saudi energy facilities. In the neighboring UAE, meanwhile, officials are considering freezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets and closing institutions linked to Tehran, thereby limiting their access to foreign currency and global trade.

Meanwhile, on March 23, the UN Security Council received a draft resolution proposed by Bahrain, which includes a proposal to allow individual countries, either independently or as part of an international naval coalition, to use all necessary means to ensure free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has partially closed since the war began on February 28. This document has already been supported by other Arab monarchies in the Persian Gulf, as well as the US, Reuters reported.

Saudi Arabia’s potential military entry into the Iran war is a matter of international prestige, Russian International Affairs Council expert Kirill Semyonov told Vedomosti. According to him, Riyadh views itself as a major regional power and cannot leave Iranian attacks unanswered. However, according to the expert, the Saudis know that launching their own military operation threatens to further destabilize the Middle East, carrying risks for all nations in the region. "Theoretically, Saudi Arabia could launch an independent strike against Iran. But its joining the US-Israeli coalition is out of the question. In this regard, the involvement of UAE troops is possible," the expert added.

Major regional states are desperately trying to broker peace between the US and Iran, as the continuation of the conflict threatens to bring down the fragile architecture of regional security, Yury Lyamin, a senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, noted. "So far, we are only seeing attempts. Similar measures were taken before the war, but that did not prevent the Americans and Israelis from attacking Iran. Under these circumstances, it is too early to predict the outcome," the expert emphasized.

 

Izvestia: How the release of strategic oil reserves will affect global market

Nations belonging to the International Energy Agency (IEA) plan to start releasing strategic oil reserves onto the global market as early as this week, a process expected to take two to four months. Over 400 million barrels could be distributed. However, experts say this measure will likely have only a modest impact on the market as a whole: the release of reserves will only mitigate the sharp rise in global prices, keeping them within the range of $90-$100 per barrel for a couple of weeks. Meanwhile, replenishing reserves could take some countries up to three years, propping up demand and keeping pressure on prices.

According to Tamara Safonova, CEO of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector, each IEA member country will decide on its own when to release oil onto the market based on its national interests. In turn, IEA head Fatih Birol emphasized that the public must recognize the severity of the problem the world is facing due to the war with Iran. According to him, the current situation is worse than the oil crises of 1973 and 1979 and eclipses the gas crisis caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In those 70s shocks, the world lost five to ten million barrels of oil per day, leading to serious economic problems worldwide. Now, however, the world is losing 11 million barrels per day, more than double the combined loss from the two major oil crises, Birol emphasized.

According to Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Russian Financial University, the planned release of 400 million barrels onto the market will only cover four days of global consumption or nine to ten days of consumption by IEA member countries. "In theory, this step is supposed to prevent a sharp rise in global oil prices, keeping them within the $90-100 per barrel range for at least a couple of weeks, until a peace deal is reached in the Middle East. But, in practice, the negative news backdrop has effectively overshadowed these IEA efforts. Today, prices are reacting primarily to information from the conflict zone," he told Izvestia.

Meanwhile, Safonova noted that the impact of the release of strategic reserves by IEA member countries depends on the timing and will likely be short-lived for end consumers. She emphasized that, under current conditions, oil prices are particularly sensitive to escalation of the Middle East crisis, and the release of strategic reserves will primarily impact regional fuel supply.

News about the 400 million barrels being released is already having an impact on the market, Dmitry Skryabin, portfolio manager at Alfa-Capital Asset Management, stressed. However, in his opinion, geopolitics remains the key factor. "An increase in the volume of releases appears to be a plausible scenario in the event of a further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, when oil prices continue to rise," he noted.

 

Vedomosti: Western firms that exited Russia lost out on $600 billion in revenue

Companies from unfriendly countries that exited the Russian market lost out on over $610 billion in revenue and at least $16 billion in net profit in Russia between 2022 and 2025. Although they earned over $280 billion in 2021, their earnings averaged $153 billion less than usual each year over the following four years. The 100 largest companies lost a total of $348 billion in revenue and $16 billion in net profit in Russia over four years. In contrast, businesses from friendly countries doubled their assets and revenue, which exceeded $42 billion in 2024.

The $600 billion estimate in lost revenue is realistic, Baikal Lobridge CEO Eduard Voitenko told Vedomosti. However, foreign companies in the Russian market were not very localized, meaning that the introduction of sanctions would have significantly restricted their normal operations anyway. Vladimir Yeremin, a senior researcher at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, noted that a decline in investment activity, shrinking demand for durable goods, potential logistical difficulties, problems with cross-border capital flows and payments, risks of nationalization, and secondary sanctions made it impossible for many foreign companies to do business as before.

The Russian market remains promising and attractive for a potential return thanks to a familiar business environment and predictable demand for those who have already worked there, Dmitry Plotnikov, a partner at Yakov and Partners, stressed. If a significant portion of the sanctions are lifted and the geopolitical situation normalizes, Western companies will begin to return actively, Voitenko pointed out. "We have already received requests for analysis from companies considering potential options for a return," the expert said. Businesses are doing their due diligence to return as quickly as possible once restrictions are lifted. Business is business, and Russia has vast resources, making the country’s market highly profitable in a number of sectors, the expert pointed out.

However, foreign companies face some hurdles in coming back. Their departure has encouraged Russian firms to develop their own production more actively, expert Stepan Zemtsov emphasized. Domestic companies are now stronger, intensifying competition with and creating additional pressure on foreign firms that wish to return, Plotnikov noted. They will have to either prove themselves under the new conditions or permanently cede market share and profits, he concluded.

 

Izvestia: US stepping up efforts to counter AI technologies from Russia, other countries

As the race to capitalize on the power of artificial intelligence (AI) heats up globally, new technologies are increasingly being used as tools for foreign policy, sanctions, and strategic confrontation. For example, the US State Department has created a special bureau to combat AI solutions from unfriendly countries. Russia is listed among such states, alongside Iran, China, and North Korea.

The creation of the body, called the Bureau of Emerging Threats, is a justified move, as artificial intelligence, cyber technologies, biotechnologies, and big data analysis are directly linked to issues of national security and global competition, media expert Yekaterina Nabatnikova told Izvestia. "The new bureau will likely address several tasks simultaneously: tracking technological threats - from cyberattacks to deepfakes - coordinating sanctions and restrictions with allies, and analyzing shifts in the balance of power in the technological sphere," she noted.

These developments are part of a global trend. The world has entered a phase of open competition in the field of AI, political analyst Yegor Zubakin emphasized. Whereas technology was previously seen as a means to improve people’s lives, it is now increasingly viewed as a military, intelligence, and information tool. "Similar agencies are being created in many countries - in China, EU nations, and within major intelligence agencies. In this case, the US was simply the first to formalize this process at the level of a separate agency. Under such conditions, having in-house AI capabilities is essential for the effective operation of intelligence and counterintelligence," he explained.

According to Alexey Parfun, vice president of the Russian Association of Communication Agencies, Russian solutions in the field of AI and cybersecurity have already reached a level where they are perceived as a risk factor. The establishment of the new bureau could serve as a political signal: this strategy could be long-term. The expert pointed out that the US is most likely preparing for a long-term technological standoff in which AI and digital tools will play a key role.

Overall, experts believe that the creation of the new bureau is part of a broader trend. AI is becoming a key factor in global politics, and the competition around it extends far beyond technology to affect security, the economy, and development models.

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