MOSCOW, March 19. /TASS/. Trump has yet to present a clear plan for the Iran conflict as support at home remains limited and results are unclear; Canada is supporting EU efforts to monitor and restrict Russian-linked tankers; and Hamas has resumed negotiations on Gaza’s future governance, with disarmament remaining the key unresolved issue. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Vedomosti: Trump’s Iran entanglement deepens amid lack of clear exit strategy

Over the course of several weeks since the launch of the joint US-Israeli military operation against Iran on February 28, US President Donald Trump has failed to persuade a majority of Americans of its necessity, and has not outlined any clear and concrete objectives. The conflict now risks falling into the category of the very "forever wars" that Trump pledged to end during his three presidential campaigns. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that Trump lacks a clear exit strategy for the Iran conflict and, in the absence of tangible results, is likely to rely on political messaging.

Trump’s actions have drawn criticism from some of his former close allies, including journalists Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, as well as former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene. The United States also hasn’t achieved any significant progress on the battlefield thus far: even the elimination of part of Iran’s military-political leadership has not led to the collapse of the regime. Such developments, in turn, clearly do little to increase Tehran’s willingness to come to the negotiating table.

According to Galina Tsaregorodtseva, head of foreign policy research at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, Trump most likely does not have a plan for exiting the war in Iran and is not particularly interested in the opinions of his advisers on the matter. At the same time, the expert emphasizes that nothing prevents the US president from declaring that all objectives have been achieved without providing specifics and portraying the outcome as a "stunning" or "brilliant" victory.

"Trump may threaten a full-scale operation and speculate on that possibility, but in practice this would not be advantageous for him ahead of the midterm elections (congressional elections are scheduled for November 2026 – Vedomosti)," she said. At the same time, Tsaregorodtseva believes that Trump could ultimately "miss the moment" and, counting on the element of surprise, opt for more extensive strikes.

"If he manages to exit the conflict in the near future, he will not experience any significant decline in electoral support among Republicans," she stressed.

Trump is currently unable to conclude the operation due to the lack of the results he is seeking, said Vladimir Pavlov, a research fellow at MGIMO’s Institute for International Studies. For this reason, all efforts by the administration are focused on convincing both the public and the political establishment that the situation will soon shift and ultimately translate into a tangible foreign policy achievement for the United States.

 

Izvestia: Canada expands cooperation with EU on monitoring Russian tankers

Canada is assisting European countries in the detention of tankers allegedly transporting Russian oil and gas, Russian Ambassador to Ottawa Oleg Stepanov told Izvestia. In particular, Canadian authorities are sharing intelligence with their European allies and conducting maritime monitoring. The diplomat emphasized that Russia is entirely indifferent to Canada’s restrictive measures.

Experts believe that Ottawa lacks sufficient military resources to participate in the actual seizure of tankers, though Canada hopes to secure new export markets amid the conflict in the Middle East.

Canada is working closely with the European Union in efforts to counter vessels carrying Russian cargo, Stepanov said. "For now, there is no talk here of readiness to engage in piracy – and it is unlikely there will be. Nevertheless, one cannot ignore the fact that Ottawa continues to work closely with Europeans on this matter, participating in information-sharing and monitoring maritime traffic," the diplomat noted.

Canada continues to add vessels to its blacklist, the number of which has reached 510. At the same time, the country has lowered its own price cap on Russian oil to $44.10 per barrel. However, these measures have had no impact on Russia.

"It is clear that these measures are ‘on paper’ and are entirely inconsequential for our country. But they help official Ottawa show its relevance within the club of Western Russophobes," Stepanov stressed.

Canada would only take part in the seizure of tankers if it were confident in the absence of repercussions and in the safety of its naval vessels and personnel, Evgeny Khoroshilov, head of economic research at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Izvestia.

"It should also be taken into account that the Canadian Navy, by its own assessments, is in a deplorable state. Two and a half years ago, Canada’s Chief of the Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Angus Topshee, described its condition as critical. The situation has not changed significantly since then," the expert emphasized.

Ottawa may also refrain from direct forceful actions because oil from these tankers is purchased by China and India - two countries with which Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is seeking to improve relations amid worsening ties with the United States following Trump’s election to a second presidential term, Dmitry Volodin, a leading research fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Izvestia.

 

Izvestia: Gaza talks resume amid Iran conflict

A Hamas delegation has resumed negotiations with Egyptian security officials and international mediators regarding the future governance of the Gaza Strip. As Izvestia has learned, the central point of contention remains disarmament: discussions focus on the confiscation of heavy weaponry, the dismantling of military infrastructure, and the transfer of light arms under the control of the Palestinian police. Consultations in Cairo are taking place against the backdrop of the armed conflict in Iran. The Jewish state is striking targets in the republic, with senior military officials and politicians reported to have been killed in the attacks. The construction site of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, being built by Rosatom, has also come under attack.

According to media reports, the issue of disarmament has been postponed until the deployment of Palestinian police forces and international stabilization units. Overall, this issue remains a major stumbling block in the negotiations, Ahmed Majdalani, a member of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), told Izvestia.

"The Hamas movement has effectively agreed to the plan in full, including during contacts with US representatives. At the same time, disarmament remains the most contentious point. Three aspects are currently under discussion: collecting heavy weapons, dismantling military infrastructure (including tunnels and production facilities), and transferring light arms under the control of the police, which is to become part of the Palestinian forces," he said.

Majdalani emphasized that Israel is using the issue of weapons as leverage to exert pressure and delay the settlement process. According to him, the ceasefire remains in place, but a comprehensive resolution of the conflict continues to be postponed, while the positions of the parties remain highly rigid.

The negotiation process is further complicated by the escalation surrounding Iran. Hamas, which at the initial stage of the conflict expressed full solidarity with the Islamic republic, later adjusted its position under pressure from Qatar. The talks may encounter serious difficulties and stall due to the escalation around Iran, increasing uncertainty for Gaza, including regarding the timeline for the arrival of an international contingent and the deployment of stabilization forces, the newspaper writes.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: EU’s internal divisions deepen amid Iran conflict and Ukraine support debate

The two-day European Union summit set to open in Brussels on March 19 is regarded as one of the most challenging due to divisions within the bloc on key foreign policy issues. Initially intended to focus on long-term priorities, enhancing the EU’s economic competitiveness and reducing dependence on external actors, the meeting will instead see EU leaders concentrate on the consequences of the US-Israeli war with Iran, rising energy prices, and continued support for Ukraine. Experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta suggest that despite internal disagreements and political resistance from some member states, the EU is ultimately likely to push through key decisions, particularly on financing Ukraine, while continuing to grapple with divisions over sanctions and strategic priorities.

According to Politico, the Middle East crisis has once again forced European leaders to prioritize short-term challenges over long-term economic reforms. The EU is already experiencing the economic fallout of the US-Israeli war with Iran. Since the beginning of the conflict, gas prices have risen by 50%, and oil prices by 27%, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said. Over just 10 days, European taxpayers have paid an additional 3 billion euros for fossil fuel imports, she told the European Parliament.

European leaders are expected to discuss further military, financial, and political support for Kiev. A 90-billion-euro financial package for Ukraine will be at the center of the debate. The EU is attempting to establish a long-term support mechanism that would stabilize Ukraine’s economy and cover its budget expenditures. However, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has expressed readiness to block both the loan to Ukraine and new anti-Russian sanctions.

Commenting on the multi-billion-euro loan to Ukraine, a European diplomatic source told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the EU will most likely be able to overcome Hungary’s veto. "In any case, funds for Kiev will be found," the source said.

Sanctions policy toward Russia will also be a key issue at the summit. The EU is discussing both tightening existing restrictions and addressing mechanisms that Moscow allegedly uses to circumvent them. In addition to Hungary, Slovakia is also opposed to the 20th sanctions package, which had been planned for adoption by the fourth anniversary of the start of the special military operation. Budapest and Bratislava are demanding that Kiev fully restore operations of the Druzhba pipeline, through which Russian oil is supplied to these countries, before approving any new restrictions.

 

Kommersant: Ruble weakens sharply as weak oil revenues and currency shortage persist

A shortage of foreign currency in the Russian market has led to a sharp depreciation of the ruble. The over-the-counter dollar exchange rate exceeded 84 rubles per dollar for the first time since September of last year, while the exchange-traded yuan rate reached an annual high, approaching 12.2 rubles per yuan. Following the Finance Ministry’s decision to halt foreign currency sales under the fiscal rule, the ruble has lost 6.5-8% of its value. The situation is being exacerbated by a shortage of foreign currency caused by limited supply from exporters, as well as strong demand from importers and speculators, Kommersant writes.

Downward pressure on the ruble has intensified amid the shortage of foreign currency, driven by reduced supply from both the Central Bank of Russia and exporters. Weak foreign currency sales from exporters due to a sharp decline in revenues amid low prices for Russian oil have also worsened the situation. According to the Central Bank, export-related currency sales totaled just $3.5 bln in February, down 31% from January and 3.5 times lower than the figure recorded a year earlier.

Alfa-Bank currency and rates strategist Nikita Yurov told the newspaper that February’s sales were the lowest on record since this indicator began being published. According to him, the supply of foreign currency from exporters has remained weak in March, reflecting low oil prices at the start of the year.

According to Investing.com, Brent crude spot prices did not exceed $72 per barrel during the first two months of the year, averaging around $65 per barrel. At the same time, the discount on Russia’s Urals crude amounted to tens of dollars per barrel.

Under these conditions, the market has faced the most severe foreign currency shortage in the past year and a half, which has also led to higher rates in the money market.

However, analysts believe that the rise in foreign currency exchange rates amid the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand will not be prolonged.

Vladimir Evstifeev, Head of Analytical Services at Zenit Bank, allows for a gradual weakening of the ruble to 85-87 rubles per dollar and 12.4-12.7 rubles per yuan. At the same time, according to Bogdan Zvarich, head of banking and financial market analysis at PSB, a reversal could occur as early as next week, supported by an increase in foreign currency supply from exporters as they make payments under the additional income tax.

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