MOSCOW, March 17. /TASS/. Tehran opts for a war of attrition; Donald Trump plans to postpone his visit to China; and Europe faces increased risks of terrorist attacks due to the conflict around Iran. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Media: Tehran opts for war of attrition

Tehran must "activate all fronts" against Israel, the Palestinian group Hamas said in a confidential message to Iran, expressing its readiness to join the war. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has stated that a ceasefire is out of the question for now, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

Meanwhile, sources at Israel’s Kan news outlet claim that the Iranian leadership is divided on what to do next. Some in political circles call for an immediate end to military operations, while others insist they should continue. The "hawks" include officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Kan’s sources say. However, they add that Iran has no centralized system of power left following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with the fate of the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei still unclear.

Not all of Iran’s allies have joined the war. In particular, members of Yemen’s Ansar Allah movement, capable of launching projectiles and drones towards the Jewish state, seek to keep their distance. In contrast, the Lebanon-based Hezbollah movement is actively engaged against Israel. In addition, Shia groups in Iraq have stepped up attacks in recent days.

Still, Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher with the Center for Middle and Near East Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, told Kommersant that Iran entered the war in a state of crisis affecting all areas, which had been there for quite a while. The expert believes that military operations will exacerbate the crisis. "It will trigger a social upheaval," Sazhin noted, adding: "Even if the Islamic Republic of Iran survives the war, it will be a different country - with the same flag but a different character."

Vasily Kuznetsov, deputy director for research at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, was quoted by Nezavisimaya Gazeta as saying that the mission of Iran’s allies is to ensure that the Iranian government is preserved as a political regime and also to prevent the conflict from becoming prolonged. This is what could be considered a victory for Tehran and its allies in the Middle East.

 

Vedomosti: Donald Trump plans to delay visit to China

US President Donald Trump has announced that his visit to China may be delayed for about a month due to the military operation against Iran. He also called on Beijing to act to ensure safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Vedomosti notes.

There is a combination of reasons behind the delay of Trump’s China visit, said Yana Leksyutina, deputy director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Modern Asia. The US has clearly been unable to implement a swift scenario similar to the Venezuelan one and is now entangled in the Iran operation. Besides, Beijing does not expect much from Trump’s visit. That said, Chinese warships are unlikely to appear in the Middle East.

Organizing convoys in the Strait of Hormuz is a very bad idea in practical terms because the entire narrow passage is exposed to fire from Iran, Yulia Semke, leading expert with the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, pointed out. It’s perfectly clear to US allies that their ships would face significant risks. This is why it’s hard to create a coalition that Trump envisions, with US allies calling for resolving the issue through diplomacy.

Iran’s subtle policy of providing safe passage to the tankers not associated with aggressors must have influenced the position of European countries, Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, noted. The Europeans realize that Trump is actually putting pressure on them, so they are reluctant to take risks, especially in light of unclear prospects of how the conflict will unfold and US threats regarding Greenland.

China is certainly interested in reopening the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic because of rising oil prices, Igor Yushkov, an analyst at the Financial University under the Russian Government, observed. However, no one is yet actually suffering from energy shortages (China, in particular, has large strategic reserves), with perhaps the exception of the poorest countries that cannot afford to purchase oil in the new situation. As for Trump, he may be concerned about things other than China at the moment as domestic fuel prices are on the rise in the US, which is being attributed to the president, the expert concluded.

 

Izvestia: Europe faces increased risk of terrorist attacks due to conflict around Iran

The escalating conflict around Iran may not only lead to an expansion of military operations in the Middle East but also to an increase in terrorist threats in Europe. Major risks could arise for the European countries deciding to provide military support to the US in the Middle East. Participation in operations against Iran or assistance in enabling navigation may turn such countries into potential targets for Iran’s supporters, Izvestia writes.

Ivan Loshkaryov, associate professor with the Department of Political Theory at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, doubts that a united coalition will be created and believes that several missions running in parallel and with limited coordination look more likely.

Meanwhile, the forces that oppose the current Iranian leadership could also pose a threat to the European continent. Russian Ambassador to Albania Alexey Zaitsev notes that about 2,500 members of the Iranian opposition are stationed in the Balkan country.

"It’s quite possible and even likely that the mujahideen based in Albania, who are seen as hardline opponents of the ayatollah regime, will be used in the current crisis. It would create the risk of Balkan nations being drawn into the conflict, while support for Iran is strong in Muslim communities in Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia. Notably, Iran’s largest diplomatic mission in Europe is in Sarajevo," Moscow State Institute of International Relations Professor Yelena Ponomaryova elaborated. She warned that Tehran’s retaliatory measures could range from cyberattacks on infrastructure sites to direct strikes on US and NATO facilities.

The conflict has already affected the European continent as targets in Cyprus and Turkey have been targeted. The flight range of drones is limited, but they can be launched from neighboring countries, which would significantly expand the strike zone. This clearly makes European countries vulnerable to unexpected attacks.

 

Izvestia: Rising fertilizer prices threaten to create global food crisis

The Strait of Hormuz closure has halted about half of global fertilizer exports, which may now disrupt the sowing campaign and trigger a food crisis in Europe and Asia. Nitrogen fertilizer prices have risen by 30% since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, Izvestia notes.

Russia can increase fertilizer exports, Sovcombank analysts believe. The current restrictions have mostly affected India. Qatar’s deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) - the main raw material for nitrogen fertilizer production - have effectively ceased. "In fact, one of the few quick and viable options is to sharply increase urea purchases from Russia," the experts said, adding that Russian deliveries did not pass through the Strait of Hormuz and contracts were already in effect.

According to Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 70% to 90% of nitrogen fertilizer costs depend on natural gas prices, so the termination of Qatari supplies and a gas price hike have sent the prices of urea and ammonia up by 15-20%. "This has improved the competitiveness of Russian fertilizers, which are produced using cheap domestic gas, making them a highly attractive option for many importers. Brazil and India are the largest purchasers of Russian nitrogen fertilizers, but other countries, including the US and EU nations, also buy them," the expert noted.

Andrianov emphasized that about half of European nitrogen fertilizer production capacities had either been stopped or reduced to a minimum due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. And since Europe was in the top three nitrogen fertilizer producers alongside China and Russia, a decline in production may result in supply shortages and a further rise in prices, the expert pointed out.

"That said, Russian companies may become the main beneficiaries of the fertilizer market crisis. Their net profit is expected to grow by 25-40% compared to 2025," the analyst concluded.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Middle East crisis to boost green energy development

The current disruptions in oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from the Persian Gulf countries will affect future demand for these energy sources. The high dependence of their exports on geopolitics is increasingly seen as a reason against expanding their use. Rising hydrocarbon prices are adding fuel to the fire, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.

Antonina Levashenko, head of the laboratory of analysis of the best global practices at the Gaidar Institute, notes that a transition to natural energy sources is becoming a matter of energy sovereignty rather than just environmental concern.

The main technical issue is that although renewable energy sources can help meet energy needs in peak periods, they are unable to serve as a reliable source of base generation. Or rather, they are unable to do so without the support of energy storage systems, which is making renewable energy generation much more expensive. Besides, integrating renewable energy sources into an energy grid requires a significant increase in network capacity, Levashenko noted.

Notably, it’s not the EU nations, China, South Korea and Japan - but rather rich countries capable of introducing the most advanced and pricey solutions - that will suffer from the energy crisis the most. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand, the Philippines, and India have turned out to be the ones that critically depend on energy supplies from the Middle East. The only option for them at the moment is to save money by reducing energy consumption where possible, switch to coal, and, apparently, start thinking about ways to expand renewable energy generation.

Energy expert Kirill Rodionov believes that the renewable energy boom will continue. China will remain the global leader in terms of launching wind and solar power plants, while India will be at least among the top five. In addition, Middle East nations will step up the development of renewable energy generation.

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