MOSCOW, March 13. /TASS/. The Pentagon focuses on unblocking the Strait of Hormuz; Israel expands military operations in southern Lebanon; and Ukraine seeks to impact the outcome of the upcoming elections in Hungary. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Media: Pentagon focuses on unblocking Strait of Hormuz

The Pentagon has outlined a new goal for military operations in the Middle East. Until recently, the US claimed to be seeking regime change in Iran and the destruction of the country’s nuclear program, but now, the objective is to end the energy crisis caused by issues with hydrocarbon deliveries from the Persian Gulf. However, experts say the Pentagon is biting off more than it can chew with this, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

Captain First Rank (Ret.) Oleg Shvedkov, chairman of the Central Committee of the All-Russian Professional Union of Servicemen, points out that the Iranian Navy has maritime weapons it can use not only to mine the Strait of Hormuz but also to combat enemy naval vessels and submarines. "It’s Iran’s underwater fleet, which has not demonstrated its combat capabilities yet. The Americans have been unable to destroy it," the expert noted. According to him, the Iranian Navy’s underwater fleet is capable of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz for years, while attempts to unblock it would lead to major combat losses.

"The Pentagon is apparently preparing a ground operation to implement the US military’s plans to reopen the Persian Gulf to international shipping. This would require a lot of weapons and troops. So, apart from creating global economic issues, the US war against Iran will also reduce weapons supplies to Ukraine, which will certainly benefit Russia," said Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yury Netkachev, a military expert.

"The war will lead to a drop in tanker traffic and force companies to use longer routes. Many operators are already considering detours around Africa, which would increase delivery times and raise shipping costs," Finam analyst Kristina Gudym told Vedomosti. "The combination of military risks and insurance restrictions is the main reason behind the current decline in traffic through the strait," the expert added.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Israel expands military operation in southern Lebanon

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has been ordered to prepare to expand its military operations in southern Lebanon. The Jewish state’s leadership made the decision after the Hezbollah movement launched massive strikes, which Iran claimed had been fully coordinated with it. Experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta say that Hezbollah is back to action in full force as it has come to believe in the Iranian government’s resilience.

IDF Spokesperson Anna Ukolova told the newspaper that the Lebanon-based group had fired almost 200 projectiles and 20 drones at the Jewish state in the early hours of Thursday. According to her, the army’s main goal remains to eliminate Hezbollah’s missile and drone launching capabilities.

Another major shift in the balance of power comes from the fact that Syria’s transitional government has set its sights on weakening Hezbollah. Damascus has deployed major forces to the border with Lebanon and made it clear to Beirut that it’s capable of preventing the conflict from spreading should the neighboring country require assistance. If the Syrian leadership provides any military support to Beirut, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa will be on the same side with Israel, a country he signed a US-brokered security coordination agreement in January.

Very little is known about Hezbollah's motives as the movement tried to keep a distance in the first days of the war against Tehran. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claims that the recent operation was the result of joint efforts with Hezbollah but according to Israeli intelligence, the Lebanese group acted almost independently. Middle East expert Anton Mardasov explains that on the 12th day of the war in the region, the Hezbollah leadership came to believe that Iran will survive US and Israeli attacks and decided to support Tehran. "The goal is to increase the scale of damage from strikes coming from Lebanon so that Israel has to spend more effort on military operations on two fronts," the analyst pointed out.

 

Media: Ukraine trying to sway upcoming elections in Hungary

Vladimir Zelensky says he does not regret the threats he made to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, believing they were justified because the latter had blocked an EU loan for Kiev. Hungary did that after Ukraine stopped Russian oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline. Now Kiev will look to send its agents to Hungary to provoke social unrest ahead of the country's parliamentary elections, experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta warned.

"Kiev officials have in fact acknowledged that they deliberately shut down oil deliveries to Hungary until after the elections, and they don’t seem to be planning to resume supplies," said Igor Yushkov, leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and the Financial University under the Russian Government.

Politicians in Kiev appear to believe that a resumption of oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline could strengthen the Orban-led party’s position, so they will see the issue through to the end, Yevgeny Semibratov, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts at Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, pointed out. In his view, Kiev is ready to do its utmost to undermine stability in Hungary and make sure that the Tisza opposition party wins the elections.

"The Kiev authorities could try to create instability in Hungary by sending their agents trained in sparking social unrest to the country, along with subversive groups. However, in order to implement a large-scale color revolution scenario, they would need to secure the consent of the EU leadership, which is still afraid of pro-Orban US President Donald Trump," Semibratov observed.

Meanwhile, the situation around the oil pipeline is playing into the Hungarian prime minister’s hands as Zelensky has crossed a line by threatening Orban, Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor with the Russian State University for the Humanities, told Izvestia. "Orban is in a tough spot. He made a bet on foreign policy, disregarding domestic issues, and people in European countries don’t usually welcome such an approach. However, help came to Orban from where it was least expected," the expert noted.

 

Izvestia: As Asian nations choked by global oil shock, Russia lays in wait

Asia as a region has been hit especially hard by the current rise in oil prices. Japan is running out of stocks, Indonesia plans to expand subsidies, and other countries are struggling to keep fuel prices at bay. Meanwhile, Washington is considering the possibility of softening sanctions on Russian oil. Experts believe that a lifting of restrictions could influence the situation to some extent but caution that prices should not be expected to change much, Izvestia writes.

As much as 60% of Asian oil imports traditionally come from the Middle East, so companies in Singapore, Japan, India, and South Korea are already forced to reduce production and declare force majeure due to logistics disruptions.

India is not the only country asking for an easing of sanctions. Bangladesh has officially requested a temporary US waiver to purchase Russian oil. It’s gasoline, diesel and kerosene rather than crude oil prices that a partial lifting of sanctions would impact the most, Dmitry Kasatkin, managing partner at Kasatkin Consulting, noted. It would be easier to transport them, so the deficit would fall and prices could go down a bit.

An increase in Russian oil purchases will have a positive effect on Russian exporters, both because global prices are high and discounts are likely to decline, Dmitry Skryabin, portfolio manager at the Alpha Capital asset management company, emphasized. In general, rising commodity prices are supporting the Russian economy as export earnings grow, budget revenues rise, and the trade balance improves.

Meanwhile, Russian oil exports alone cannot stabilize the global market, with nearly 20 million barrels per day of supplies trapped in the Persian Gulf. Even if the active phase of the conflict ends soon, the likelihood of another round of tensions will keep oil prices above fundamental levels for several quarters, Skryabin stressed. In today’s situation, geopolitics remains the key driver of prices.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Romania emerges as key US ally in Eastern Europe

US refueling aircraft participating in the operation against Iran will soon arrive in Romania. Unlike other NATO allies in Europe, who seek to stay as far as possible from the Middle East war, Bucharest isn’t hesitating to enter the fray, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.

Notably, Washington has received active support from neither Hungary, whose Prime Minister Viktor Orban counts himself an ally of US President Donald Trump, nor Poland, which has always sought to build especially privileged relations with the United States. Moreover, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, regarded by observers as a key Trump ally in Western Europe, slammed the US-Israeli operation against Iran as illegal.

Bucharest’s behavior looks particularly unusual given that Romania is among those negatively affected by the war in the Middle East. Energy prices are on the rise, hurting the government’s standing with citizens. Yekaterina Shumitskaya, senior researcher with the Department of European Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, points to several reasons behind Bucharest’s desire to build closer ties with the US. Rising oil prices are one of them. US sanctions made Romania abandon Russian oil processing at a refinery in Ploiesti, and now, as Romanian Energy Minister Bogdan Ivan has said, the country seeks to get US permission to resume Russian oil processing.

"Closer ties with America are also important in view of the Trump administration’s intention to reduce US military presence in Europe. Romanian authorities realize that the country is unable to protect itself on its own as it depends too much on the US in the defense field," Shumitskaya explained. Hence the desire to make sure that Washington’s plans to distance itself from protecting Europe do not have a negative impact on the Eastern European nation’s security.

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